Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent criteria requiring ultra-rare events: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake per USGS, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10kt+ meteor strike tracked by NASA. None have occurred through early April, aligning with historical baselines—US Cat5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes fewer than once every 10-20 years, VEI 6+ eruptions rarer still (e.g., last major was 1991 Pinatubo), and significant meteors exceedingly uncommon. NOAA spring flood and storm outlooks show average risks, with Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts due in May potentially influencing odds amid neutral ENSO transition.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCatastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Catastrophe naturelle en 2026 ?
Oui
$191,235 Vol.
$191,235 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$191,235 Vol.
$191,235 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent criteria requiring ultra-rare events: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake per USGS, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10kt+ meteor strike tracked by NASA. None have occurred through early April, aligning with historical baselines—US Cat5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes fewer than once every 10-20 years, VEI 6+ eruptions rarer still (e.g., last major was 1991 Pinatubo), and significant meteors exceedingly uncommon. NOAA spring flood and storm outlooks show average risks, with Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts due in May potentially influencing odds amid neutral ENSO transition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$191,235Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent criteria requiring ultra-rare events: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake per USGS, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10kt+ meteor strike tracked by NASA. None have occurred through early April, aligning with historical baselines—US Cat5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes fewer than once every 10-20 years, VEI 6+ eruptions rarer still (e.g., last major was 1991 Pinatubo), and significant meteors exceedingly uncommon. NOAA spring flood and storm outlooks show average risks, with Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts due in May potentially influencing odds amid neutral ENSO transition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$191,235Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the market's stringent criteria requiring ultra-rare events: a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per Saffir-Simpson scale, an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake per USGS, a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or a 10kt+ meteor strike tracked by NASA. None have occurred through early April, aligning with historical baselines—US Cat5 landfalls average under once per decade, M8.5+ quakes fewer than once every 10-20 years, VEI 6+ eruptions rarer still (e.g., last major was 1991 Pinatubo), and significant meteors exceedingly uncommon. NOAA spring flood and storm outlooks show average risks, with Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecasts due in May potentially influencing odds amid neutral ENSO transition.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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