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Géopolitique·Israël X Iran

Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Israël X Iran

Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ?

avr. 30

avr. 30

$2,919,043 Vol.

30 avr. 2026
Polymarket

$2,919,043 Vol.

Polymarket

Émirats arabes unis

$1,446,404 Vol.

7%

Arabie saoudite

$524,188 Vol.

5%

Qatar

$28,180 Vol.

2%

Koweït

$118,231 Vol.

2%

Turquie

$70,408 Vol.

1%

Jordanie

$20,425 Vol.

1%

Tout pays de l'UE

$47,284 Vol.

1%

Oman

$30,136 Vol.

1%

Bahreïn

$51,974 Vol.

1%

Royaume-Uni

$234,114 Vol.

1%

France

$187,515 Vol.

1%

Allemagne

$120,280 Vol.

<1%

Canada

$39,907 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched thousands of airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile launchers, air defenses, and infrastructure, beginning February 28, 2026, in response to escalating regional threats, marking the primary driver of trader positioning. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect early April, with Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it wavered as the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports; on April 18, Iranian forces re-closed the strait, fired on tankers, and vowed sustained restrictions until the blockade lifts. President Trump warned of resumed strikes without a deal, while U.S. intelligence assesses Iran retains 40% of attack drones and 60% of missile launchers. Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia back further degradation of Iranian capabilities and may join actions, with UK bases facilitating prior U.S. operations; no firm talks date is set before the April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,919,043
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched thousands of airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile launchers, air defenses, and infrastructure, beginning February 28, 2026, in response to escalating regional threats, marking the primary driver of trader positioning. A U.S.-brokered two-week ceasefire took effect early April, with Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it wavered as the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports; on April 18, Iranian forces re-closed the strait, fired on tankers, and vowed sustained restrictions until the blockade lifts. President Trump warned of resumed strikes without a deal, while U.S. intelligence assesses Iran retains 40% of attack drones and 60% of missile launchers. Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia back further degradation of Iranian capabilities and may join actions, with UK bases facilitating prior U.S. operations; no firm talks date is set before the April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,919,043
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Émirats arabes unis » à 7%, suivi de « Arabie saoudite » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 7¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 7% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ? » a généré $2.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 23, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ? », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ? » est « Émirats arabes unis » à seulement 7%, avec « Arabie saoudite » juste derrière à 5%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quels pays mèneront une action militaire contre l'Iran d'ici le 30 avril ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.