Trader consensus on a 73% implied probability for "No" on Israel-Lebanon normalization before 2027 reflects Hezbollah's dominant influence in Lebanese politics and the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs amid ongoing border tensions. A U.S.- and France-brokered ceasefire on November 27, 2024, ended 14 months of cross-border clashes by requiring Hezbollah's withdrawal south of the Litani River and Israeli pullback from southern Lebanon, but mutual violations—including Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire—have undermined its stability. Lebanese leaders demand resolution of disputes like Shebaa Farms and maritime boundaries before ties, while Israeli officials, citing security threats, rule out relations absent Hezbollah disarmament. Lebanon's presidential vacuum since 2022 further stalls progress, aligning with historical precedents of stalled peace talks.