Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the first direct attacks between the two nations; Iran reported minimal damage and emphasized restraint, avoiding immediate counterstrikes amid U.S. calls for de-escalation. This follows heightened tensions from Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 and an Iranian general, with U.S. forces aiding Israel's missile defenses. No major escalations have occurred since, as focus shifts to Gaza ceasefire talks and northern Israel-Hezbollah clashes. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 looms as a potential policy pivot, while diplomatic channels remain open but fragile, influencing trader assessments of conflict resolution timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
Iran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
$7,814,482 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 mars
3%
15 avril
22%
7 avril
10%
30 avril
35%
15 mai
42%
30 juin
63%
31 décembre
82%
$7,814,482 Vol.
31 mars
$4,110,660 Vol.
3%
15 avril
$869,768 Vol.
22%
7 avril
$64,280 Vol.
10%
30 avril
$644,399 Vol.
35%
15 mai
$1,143,914 Vol.
42%
30 juin
$785,447 Vol.
63%
31 décembre
$196,026 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the first direct attacks between the two nations; Iran reported minimal damage and emphasized restraint, avoiding immediate counterstrikes amid U.S. calls for de-escalation. This follows heightened tensions from Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 and an Iranian general, with U.S. forces aiding Israel's missile defenses. No major escalations have occurred since, as focus shifts to Gaza ceasefire talks and northern Israel-Hezbollah clashes. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 looms as a potential policy pivot, while diplomatic channels remain open but fragile, influencing trader assessments of conflict resolution timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$7,814,482Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the first direct attacks between the two nations; Iran reported minimal damage and emphasized restraint, avoiding immediate counterstrikes amid U.S. calls for de-escalation. This follows heightened tensions from Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 and an Iranian general, with U.S. forces aiding Israel's missile defenses. No major escalations have occurred since, as focus shifts to Gaza ceasefire talks and northern Israel-Hezbollah clashes. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 looms as a potential policy pivot, while diplomatic channels remain open but fragile, influencing trader assessments of conflict resolution timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$7,814,482Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, marking the first direct attacks between the two nations; Iran reported minimal damage and emphasized restraint, avoiding immediate counterstrikes amid U.S. calls for de-escalation. This follows heightened tensions from Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 and an Iranian general, with U.S. forces aiding Israel's missile defenses. No major escalations have occurred since, as focus shifts to Gaza ceasefire talks and northern Israel-Hezbollah clashes. The U.S. presidential election on November 5 looms as a potential policy pivot, while diplomatic channels remain open but fragile, influencing trader assessments of conflict resolution timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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