Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war launched February 28 with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8, loyal IRGC control, and brutal suppression of dissent—including lethal force against a single recent anti-regime protest—have prevented mass uprisings despite persistent low-level rooftop chants and economic collapse. US intelligence assesses no imminent collapse risk, while regime-orchestrated pro-government rallies, comprising 99% of 850 demonstrations since the war, signal nationalist consolidation and stability as of March 28. Escalation or elite defections could shift dynamics, but current cohesion favors continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLe régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 juin ?
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$22,036,330 Vol.
$22,036,330 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$22,036,330 Vol.
$22,036,330 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war launched February 28 with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8, loyal IRGC control, and brutal suppression of dissent—including lethal force against a single recent anti-regime protest—have prevented mass uprisings despite persistent low-level rooftop chants and economic collapse. US intelligence assesses no imminent collapse risk, while regime-orchestrated pro-government rallies, comprising 99% of 850 demonstrations since the war, signal nationalist consolidation and stability as of March 28. Escalation or elite defections could shift dynamics, but current cohesion favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$22,036,330Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war launched February 28 with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8, loyal IRGC control, and brutal suppression of dissent—including lethal force against a single recent anti-regime protest—have prevented mass uprisings despite persistent low-level rooftop chants and economic collapse. US intelligence assesses no imminent collapse risk, while regime-orchestrated pro-government rallies, comprising 99% of 850 demonstrations since the war, signal nationalist consolidation and stability as of March 28. Escalation or elite defections could shift dynamics, but current cohesion favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,036,357Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 81.5% probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war launched February 28 with airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officials. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8, loyal IRGC control, and brutal suppression of dissent—including lethal force against a single recent anti-regime protest—have prevented mass uprisings despite persistent low-level rooftop chants and economic collapse. US intelligence assesses no imminent collapse risk, while regime-orchestrated pro-government rallies, comprising 99% of 850 demonstrations since the war, signal nationalist consolidation and stability as of March 28. Escalation or elite defections could shift dynamics, but current cohesion favors continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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