Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the government's sustained crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late 2025 amid economic crisis and escalated external pressures. Recent March developments, including new Tehran checkpoints to curb dissent, mass arrests of protesters' families, and a sharp rise in executions reported by UN experts on March 16, underscore security forces'—led by the IRGC—firm control despite US and Israeli airstrikes in February that degraded military infrastructure. Israeli intelligence assessments indicate no immediate conditions for popular uprising, hampered by disorganized opposition and historical regime resilience, with no major fractures in Supreme Leader authority or core institutions in the past week.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLe régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 juin ?
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$21,883,404 Vol.
$21,883,404 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$21,883,404 Vol.
$21,883,404 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the government's sustained crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late 2025 amid economic crisis and escalated external pressures. Recent March developments, including new Tehran checkpoints to curb dissent, mass arrests of protesters' families, and a sharp rise in executions reported by UN experts on March 16, underscore security forces'—led by the IRGC—firm control despite US and Israeli airstrikes in February that degraded military infrastructure. Israeli intelligence assessments indicate no immediate conditions for popular uprising, hampered by disorganized opposition and historical regime resilience, with no major fractures in Supreme Leader authority or core institutions in the past week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$21,883,404Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the government's sustained crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late 2025 amid economic crisis and escalated external pressures. Recent March developments, including new Tehran checkpoints to curb dissent, mass arrests of protesters' families, and a sharp rise in executions reported by UN experts on March 16, underscore security forces'—led by the IRGC—firm control despite US and Israeli airstrikes in February that degraded military infrastructure. Israeli intelligence assessments indicate no immediate conditions for popular uprising, hampered by disorganized opposition and historical regime resilience, with no major fractures in Supreme Leader authority or core institutions in the past week.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$21,883,404Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 79.5% chance against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting the government's sustained crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late 2025 amid economic crisis and escalated external pressures. Recent March developments, including new Tehran checkpoints to curb dissent, mass arrests of protesters' families, and a sharp rise in executions reported by UN experts on March 16, underscore security forces'—led by the IRGC—firm control despite US and Israeli airstrikes in February that degraded military infrastructure. Israeli intelligence assessments indicate no immediate conditions for popular uprising, hampered by disorganized opposition and historical regime resilience, with no major fractures in Supreme Leader authority or core institutions in the past week.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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