US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated hours ago that the US military operation against Iran is expected to end in weeks, not months, amid high-tempo US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites and IRGC facilities. This follows Iran's rejection yesterday of a 15-point US ceasefire proposal, coupled with its continued retaliatory missile barrages on US bases in the Gulf and Israeli targets, fueling trader consensus at 36.5% for action persisting through April 30. President Trump's one-week pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 opens a narrow diplomatic window, but Tehran's Strait of Hormuz leverage and defiant posture sustain uncertainty, positioning late-April resolutions as secondary contenders around 8%. Ongoing weekly updates confirm no de-escalation, with negotiations pivotal ahead of potential escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action through April 30 31%
Before April 13%
April 5 7%
April 23 7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
8%
April 1
4%
April 2
5%
April 3
6%
April 4
6%
April 5
7%
April 6
5%
April 7
7%
April 8
6%
April 9
8%
April 10
8%
April 11
8%
April 12
8%
April 13
5%
April 14
8%
April 15
8%
April 16
8%
April 17
8%
April 18
8%
April 19
8%
April 20
8%
April 21
8%
April 22
8%
April 23
7%
April 24
8%
April 25
7%
April 26
8%
April 27
8%
April 28
8%
April 29
8%
April 30
8%
Military action through April 30
34%
Military action through April 30 31%
Before April 13%
April 5 7%
April 23 7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
$70 Vol.
8%
April 1
$114 Vol.
4%
April 2
$10 Vol.
5%
April 3
$10 Vol.
6%
April 4
$10 Vol.
6%
April 5
$10 Vol.
7%
April 6
$151 Vol.
5%
April 7
$10 Vol.
7%
April 8
$10 Vol.
6%
April 9
$10 Vol.
8%
April 10
$10 Vol.
8%
April 11
$10 Vol.
8%
April 12
$10 Vol.
8%
April 13
$164 Vol.
5%
April 14
$10 Vol.
8%
April 15
$10 Vol.
8%
April 16
$10 Vol.
8%
April 17
$10 Vol.
8%
April 18
$10 Vol.
8%
April 19
$10 Vol.
8%
April 20
$10 Vol.
8%
April 21
$10 Vol.
8%
April 22
$10 Vol.
8%
April 23
$10 Vol.
7%
April 24
$10 Vol.
8%
April 25
$10 Vol.
7%
April 26
$10 Vol.
8%
April 27
$10 Vol.
8%
April 28
$10 Vol.
8%
April 29
$10 Vol.
8%
April 30
$10 Vol.
8%
Military action through April 30
$135 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated hours ago that the US military operation against Iran is expected to end in weeks, not months, amid high-tempo US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites and IRGC facilities. This follows Iran's rejection yesterday of a 15-point US ceasefire proposal, coupled with its continued retaliatory missile barrages on US bases in the Gulf and Israeli targets, fueling trader consensus at 36.5% for action persisting through April 30. President Trump's one-week pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 opens a narrow diplomatic window, but Tehran's Strait of Hormuz leverage and defiant posture sustain uncertainty, positioning late-April resolutions as secondary contenders around 8%. Ongoing weekly updates confirm no de-escalation, with negotiations pivotal ahead of potential escalation.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$896Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated hours ago that the US military operation against Iran is expected to end in weeks, not months, amid high-tempo US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites and IRGC facilities. This follows Iran's rejection yesterday of a 15-point US ceasefire proposal, coupled with its continued retaliatory missile barrages on US bases in the Gulf and Israeli targets, fueling trader consensus at 36.5% for action persisting through April 30. President Trump's one-week pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 opens a narrow diplomatic window, but Tehran's Strait of Hormuz leverage and defiant posture sustain uncertainty, positioning late-April resolutions as secondary contenders around 8%. Ongoing weekly updates confirm no de-escalation, with negotiations pivotal ahead of potential escalation.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$896Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated hours ago that the US military operation against Iran is expected to end in weeks, not months, amid high-tempo US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile sites and IRGC facilities. This follows Iran's rejection yesterday of a 15-point US ceasefire proposal, coupled with its continued retaliatory missile barrages on US bases in the Gulf and Israeli targets, fueling trader consensus at 36.5% for action persisting through April 30. President Trump's one-week pause on energy sector strikes until April 6 opens a narrow diplomatic window, but Tehran's Strait of Hormuz leverage and defiant posture sustain uncertainty, positioning late-April resolutions as secondary contenders around 8%. Ongoing weekly updates confirm no de-escalation, with negotiations pivotal ahead of potential escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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