Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing offensive military options against Iran amid escalating retaliatory strikes, including a March 28 missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base that injured 12 U.S. troops and damaged aircraft. This marks a sharp reversal from prior diplomatic détente, driven by weeks of Iranian assaults on GCC energy infrastructure, airports, ports, and Strait of Hormuz shipping since the U.S.-Israeli campaign began February 28. Trader consensus on Polymarket captures this tension through heightened implied probabilities of direct Gulf involvement, fueling volatility in Brent crude futures—up over 15% in March—and bolstering defense sector equities. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran talks under a 10-day pause on energy strikes and potential GCC joint statements on self-defense thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGulf State military action against Iran by...?
Gulf State military action against Iran by...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
17%
April 30
25%
$118 Vol.
April 15
$94 Vol.
17%
April 30
$24 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing offensive military options against Iran amid escalating retaliatory strikes, including a March 28 missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base that injured 12 U.S. troops and damaged aircraft. This marks a sharp reversal from prior diplomatic détente, driven by weeks of Iranian assaults on GCC energy infrastructure, airports, ports, and Strait of Hormuz shipping since the U.S.-Israeli campaign began February 28. Trader consensus on Polymarket captures this tension through heightened implied probabilities of direct Gulf involvement, fueling volatility in Brent crude futures—up over 15% in March—and bolstering defense sector equities. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran talks under a 10-day pause on energy strikes and potential GCC joint statements on self-defense thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$118Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing offensive military options against Iran amid escalating retaliatory strikes, including a March 28 missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base that injured 12 U.S. troops and damaged aircraft. This marks a sharp reversal from prior diplomatic détente, driven by weeks of Iranian assaults on GCC energy infrastructure, airports, ports, and Strait of Hormuz shipping since the U.S.-Israeli campaign began February 28. Trader consensus on Polymarket captures this tension through heightened implied probabilities of direct Gulf involvement, fueling volatility in Brent crude futures—up over 15% in March—and bolstering defense sector equities. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran talks under a 10-day pause on energy strikes and potential GCC joint statements on self-defense thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$118Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Gulf states including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weighing offensive military options against Iran amid escalating retaliatory strikes, including a March 28 missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base that injured 12 U.S. troops and damaged aircraft. This marks a sharp reversal from prior diplomatic détente, driven by weeks of Iranian assaults on GCC energy infrastructure, airports, ports, and Strait of Hormuz shipping since the U.S.-Israeli campaign began February 28. Trader consensus on Polymarket captures this tension through heightened implied probabilities of direct Gulf involvement, fueling volatility in Brent crude futures—up over 15% in March—and bolstering defense sector equities. Key catalysts ahead include U.S.-Iran talks under a 10-day pause on energy strikes and potential GCC joint statements on self-defense thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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