US-Israeli airstrikes escalated sharply with Israeli IDF announcing extensive strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Hezbollah targets in Beirut on April 3, day 35 of the conflict that began February 28 targeting over 1,000 Iranian sites including top officials and nuclear facilities. Iran's recent large-scale missile barrages on central Israel injured dozens, prompting US vows to expand inland operations while sinking an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka; NATO downed an Iranian missile aimed at Turkey. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6 amid stalled negotiations, as France, China, and Russia blocked UN authorization for Strait of Hormuz action. Pro-American Kurdish forces prepare potential incursion, signaling no imminent ceasefire despite depleted Iranian missile stocks, leaving trader consensus favoring prolonged hostilities amid mutual escalations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$324,179 Vol.
31 mars 2026
15 avril
12%
30 avril
37%
31 mai
69%
30 juin
80%
$324,179 Vol.
15 avril
$33,486 Vol.
12%
30 avril
$21,019 Vol.
37%
31 mai
$11,794 Vol.
69%
30 juin
$9,647 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes escalated sharply with Israeli IDF announcing extensive strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Hezbollah targets in Beirut on April 3, day 35 of the conflict that began February 28 targeting over 1,000 Iranian sites including top officials and nuclear facilities. Iran's recent large-scale missile barrages on central Israel injured dozens, prompting US vows to expand inland operations while sinking an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka; NATO downed an Iranian missile aimed at Turkey. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6 amid stalled negotiations, as France, China, and Russia blocked UN authorization for Strait of Hormuz action. Pro-American Kurdish forces prepare potential incursion, signaling no imminent ceasefire despite depleted Iranian missile stocks, leaving trader consensus favoring prolonged hostilities amid mutual escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$324,179Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes escalated sharply with Israeli IDF announcing extensive strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Hezbollah targets in Beirut on April 3, day 35 of the conflict that began February 28 targeting over 1,000 Iranian sites including top officials and nuclear facilities. Iran's recent large-scale missile barrages on central Israel injured dozens, prompting US vows to expand inland operations while sinking an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka; NATO downed an Iranian missile aimed at Turkey. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6 amid stalled negotiations, as France, China, and Russia blocked UN authorization for Strait of Hormuz action. Pro-American Kurdish forces prepare potential incursion, signaling no imminent ceasefire despite depleted Iranian missile stocks, leaving trader consensus favoring prolonged hostilities amid mutual escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$324,179Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes escalated sharply with Israeli IDF announcing extensive strikes on Tehran infrastructure and Hezbollah targets in Beirut on April 3, day 35 of the conflict that began February 28 targeting over 1,000 Iranian sites including top officials and nuclear facilities. Iran's recent large-scale missile barrages on central Israel injured dozens, prompting US vows to expand inland operations while sinking an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka; NATO downed an Iranian missile aimed at Turkey. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure until April 6 amid stalled negotiations, as France, China, and Russia blocked UN authorization for Strait of Hormuz action. Pro-American Kurdish forces prepare potential incursion, signaling no imminent ceasefire despite depleted Iranian missile stocks, leaving trader consensus favoring prolonged hostilities amid mutual escalations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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