U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's sixth week, with the U.S. damaging Tehran's B1 Bridge on April 2 to disrupt resupply routes and Israel striking Isfahan missile facilities amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. President Trump stated core military objectives are nearly complete and forecasted a wind-down in two to three weeks during his April 1 address, though he threatened further infrastructure hits absent Iranian concessions, dashing hopes for an immediate ceasefire. Iran's regime remains intact, bolstering defenses and threatening Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against ongoing escalation, with next week's Hormuz demining talks and NATO-Trump meeting as potential catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$323,581 Vol.
31 mars 2026
15 avril
12%
30 avril
36%
31 mai
69%
30 juin
79%
$323,581 Vol.
15 avril
$33,486 Vol.
12%
30 avril
$20,919 Vol.
36%
31 mai
$11,674 Vol.
69%
30 juin
$9,270 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's sixth week, with the U.S. damaging Tehran's B1 Bridge on April 2 to disrupt resupply routes and Israel striking Isfahan missile facilities amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. President Trump stated core military objectives are nearly complete and forecasted a wind-down in two to three weeks during his April 1 address, though he threatened further infrastructure hits absent Iranian concessions, dashing hopes for an immediate ceasefire. Iran's regime remains intact, bolstering defenses and threatening Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against ongoing escalation, with next week's Hormuz demining talks and NATO-Trump meeting as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$323,581Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's sixth week, with the U.S. damaging Tehran's B1 Bridge on April 2 to disrupt resupply routes and Israel striking Isfahan missile facilities amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. President Trump stated core military objectives are nearly complete and forecasted a wind-down in two to three weeks during his April 1 address, though he threatened further infrastructure hits absent Iranian concessions, dashing hopes for an immediate ceasefire. Iran's regime remains intact, bolstering defenses and threatening Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against ongoing escalation, with next week's Hormuz demining talks and NATO-Trump meeting as potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$323,581Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's sixth week, with the U.S. damaging Tehran's B1 Bridge on April 2 to disrupt resupply routes and Israel striking Isfahan missile facilities amid Iranian missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. President Trump stated core military objectives are nearly complete and forecasted a wind-down in two to three weeks during his April 1 address, though he threatened further infrastructure hits absent Iranian concessions, dashing hopes for an immediate ceasefire. Iran's regime remains intact, bolstering defenses and threatening Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Traders weigh de-escalation signals against ongoing escalation, with next week's Hormuz demining talks and NATO-Trump meeting as potential catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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