Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% on any country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of new diplomatic ruptures in the past 30 days amid persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's declaration of Israel's top envoy persona non grata in late January—prompted by alleged violations of diplomatic norms—led to mutual expulsions but has not triggered copycat actions. Spain's permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Israel on March 11, citing Gaza operations and U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, marked a downgrade without Israel facing expulsion elsewhere. With stable ties among key partners like the U.S. and most EU states, traders assess low risk of escalation to ambassador expulsions before year-end, absent major new military or humanitarian crises.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourWill any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% on any country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of new diplomatic ruptures in the past 30 days amid persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's declaration of Israel's top envoy persona non grata in late January—prompted by alleged violations of diplomatic norms—led to mutual expulsions but has not triggered copycat actions. Spain's permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Israel on March 11, citing Gaza operations and U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, marked a downgrade without Israel facing expulsion elsewhere. With stable ties among key partners like the U.S. and most EU states, traders assess low risk of escalation to ambassador expulsions before year-end, absent major new military or humanitarian crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$1,363Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% on any country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of new diplomatic ruptures in the past 30 days amid persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's declaration of Israel's top envoy persona non grata in late January—prompted by alleged violations of diplomatic norms—led to mutual expulsions but has not triggered copycat actions. Spain's permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Israel on March 11, citing Gaza operations and U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, marked a downgrade without Israel facing expulsion elsewhere. With stable ties among key partners like the U.S. and most EU states, traders assess low risk of escalation to ambassador expulsions before year-end, absent major new military or humanitarian crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,363Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 66.5% on any country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of new diplomatic ruptures in the past 30 days amid persistent Middle East tensions. South Africa's declaration of Israel's top envoy persona non grata in late January—prompted by alleged violations of diplomatic norms—led to mutual expulsions but has not triggered copycat actions. Spain's permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador from Israel on March 11, citing Gaza operations and U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, marked a downgrade without Israel facing expulsion elsewhere. With stable ties among key partners like the U.S. and most EU states, traders assess low risk of escalation to ambassador expulsions before year-end, absent major new military or humanitarian crises.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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