Market icon
Politique·Moyen-Orient

Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ?

Market icon
Politique·Moyen-Orient

Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ?

Mar 31

Mar 31

$529,035 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$529,035 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$202,009 Vol.

1%

30 avril

$5 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."

General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.

Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.

The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$529,035
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 24, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader consensus on Polymarket shows low implied probability for President-elect Trump declaring war on Iran by the specified date, primarily due to Congress's constitutional authority over war declarations and no public indications of such plans from Trump or his transition team. Recent catalysts include Israel's October 2024 strikes on Iranian military targets, prompting limited retaliation, and Trump's statements prioritizing "peace through strength," nuclear deal revisions, and sanctions over direct conflict. Ongoing US support for Israel amid Hezbollah and Houthi tensions adds pressure but favors targeted actions like past Soleimani operations rather than full war. Key upcoming events: Trump's January 20 inauguration and potential early diplomatic overtures to Tehran.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 3 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 avril » à 50%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 50¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ? » a généré $529K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 24, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ? », parcourez les 3 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ? » est « 30 avril » à 50%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 1%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Trump va-t-il déclarer la guerre à l'Iran d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.