Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian missile production facilities in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Tehran downplayed the damage and emphasized restraint, signaling de-escalation amid broader regional conflicts involving Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. No further strikes have occurred in the past two weeks, with U.S. diplomatic pressure and warnings against wider war contributing to trader caution. The November 5 U.S. presidential election looms as a pivotal factor, potentially shifting American support for Israeli operations or sanctions on Iran's nuclear program, while ongoing proxy skirmishes sustain escalation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$3,719,845 Vol.
31 mars
8%
$3,719,845 Vol.
31 mars
8%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian missile production facilities in response to Tehran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage against Israel, marking the most recent direct military action against Iran. Tehran downplayed the damage and emphasized restraint, signaling de-escalation amid broader regional conflicts involving Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. No further strikes have occurred in the past two weeks, with U.S. diplomatic pressure and warnings against wider war contributing to trader caution. The November 5 U.S. presidential election looms as a pivotal factor, potentially shifting American support for Israeli operations or sanctions on Iran's nuclear program, while ongoing proxy skirmishes sustain escalation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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