A fragile two-week ceasefire in the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, anchors trader sentiment, with Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—citing US blockades and Israeli actions in Lebanon—prompting US preparations for response and Israeli readiness to strike Iranian energy facilities pending Washington approval. President Trump declared the conflict "basically over" on April 16 amid optimism for a broader deal, but IRGC threats of deadly strikes and ongoing Hezbollah tensions signal high escalation risks. Key upcoming factors include ceasefire expiration around April 22, diplomatic talks, and naval standoffs that could trigger airstrikes or proxy actions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAction militaire d'Israël contre l'Iran par... ?
Action militaire d'Israël contre l'Iran par... ?
$2,155,267 Vol.
21 avr. 2026
21 avril
14%
$2,155,267 Vol.
21 avril
$883,629 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire in the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, anchors trader sentiment, with Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—citing US blockades and Israeli actions in Lebanon—prompting US preparations for response and Israeli readiness to strike Iranian energy facilities pending Washington approval. President Trump declared the conflict "basically over" on April 16 amid optimism for a broader deal, but IRGC threats of deadly strikes and ongoing Hezbollah tensions signal high escalation risks. Key upcoming factors include ceasefire expiration around April 22, diplomatic talks, and naval standoffs that could trigger airstrikes or proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$2,155,267Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire in the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, anchors trader sentiment, with Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—citing US blockades and Israeli actions in Lebanon—prompting US preparations for response and Israeli readiness to strike Iranian energy facilities pending Washington approval. President Trump declared the conflict "basically over" on April 16 amid optimism for a broader deal, but IRGC threats of deadly strikes and ongoing Hezbollah tensions signal high escalation risks. Key upcoming factors include ceasefire expiration around April 22, diplomatic talks, and naval standoffs that could trigger airstrikes or proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,155,267Date de fin
21 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire in the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, agreed April 8 and mediated by Pakistan, anchors trader sentiment, with Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz on April 18—citing US blockades and Israeli actions in Lebanon—prompting US preparations for response and Israeli readiness to strike Iranian energy facilities pending Washington approval. President Trump declared the conflict "basically over" on April 16 amid optimism for a broader deal, but IRGC threats of deadly strikes and ongoing Hezbollah tensions signal high escalation risks. Key upcoming factors include ceasefire expiration around April 22, diplomatic talks, and naval standoffs that could trigger airstrikes or proxy actions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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