US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack any fixed timeline for unification, favoring continued coercive measures such as aircraft patrols, naval drills, and gray-zone pressure. This assessment underpins the 87.5% implied probability against an invasion by mid-2027, as traders observe no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or troop concentrations that historically precede such operations. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded budgets and systems like HIMARS, while US-China diplomatic exchanges, including May 2026 summit discussions, have produced no escalatory shifts. Full-scale invasion scenarios remain unlikely absent visible preparations months in advance or major disruptions to cross-strait stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici le 30 juin 2027 ?
Oui
$225,189 Vol.
$225,189 Vol.
30 juin 2027
Oui
$225,189 Vol.
$225,189 Vol.
30 juin 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack any fixed timeline for unification, favoring continued coercive measures such as aircraft patrols, naval drills, and gray-zone pressure. This assessment underpins the 87.5% implied probability against an invasion by mid-2027, as traders observe no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or troop concentrations that historically precede such operations. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded budgets and systems like HIMARS, while US-China diplomatic exchanges, including May 2026 summit discussions, have produced no escalatory shifts. Full-scale invasion scenarios remain unlikely absent visible preparations months in advance or major disruptions to cross-strait stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$225,189Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack any fixed timeline for unification, favoring continued coercive measures such as aircraft patrols, naval drills, and gray-zone pressure. This assessment underpins the 87.5% implied probability against an invasion by mid-2027, as traders observe no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or troop concentrations that historically precede such operations. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded budgets and systems like HIMARS, while US-China diplomatic exchanges, including May 2026 summit discussions, have produced no escalatory shifts. Full-scale invasion scenarios remain unlikely absent visible preparations months in advance or major disruptions to cross-strait stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$225,189Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released in March 2026 state that Chinese leaders do not currently plan an invasion of Taiwan in 2027 and lack any fixed timeline for unification, favoring continued coercive measures such as aircraft patrols, naval drills, and gray-zone pressure. This assessment underpins the 87.5% implied probability against an invasion by mid-2027, as traders observe no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or troop concentrations that historically precede such operations. Taiwan has advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded budgets and systems like HIMARS, while US-China diplomatic exchanges, including May 2026 summit discussions, have produced no escalatory shifts. Full-scale invasion scenarios remain unlikely absent visible preparations months in advance or major disruptions to cross-strait stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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