Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to sustained U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing prioritizes gray-zone coercion—routine aircraft patrols, naval drills, and blockade simulations—over large-scale invasion preparations. No observable amphibious logistics, troop concentrations, or mobilization have appeared across the strait in recent months. The May 2026 Xi-Trump summit addressed cross-strait stability without triggering escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded funding for domestic weapons and long-range strike systems. Monthly PLA air incursions near Taiwan reached new lows in early 2026, and diplomatic channels with regional partners have remained active, reinforcing the current trader consensus on continued deterrence rather than kinetic conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,861,230 Vol.
$1,861,230 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$1,861,230 Vol.
$1,861,230 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to sustained U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing prioritizes gray-zone coercion—routine aircraft patrols, naval drills, and blockade simulations—over large-scale invasion preparations. No observable amphibious logistics, troop concentrations, or mobilization have appeared across the strait in recent months. The May 2026 Xi-Trump summit addressed cross-strait stability without triggering escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded funding for domestic weapons and long-range strike systems. Monthly PLA air incursions near Taiwan reached new lows in early 2026, and diplomatic channels with regional partners have remained active, reinforcing the current trader consensus on continued deterrence rather than kinetic conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,861,230Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to sustained U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing prioritizes gray-zone coercion—routine aircraft patrols, naval drills, and blockade simulations—over large-scale invasion preparations. No observable amphibious logistics, troop concentrations, or mobilization have appeared across the strait in recent months. The May 2026 Xi-Trump summit addressed cross-strait stability without triggering escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded funding for domestic weapons and long-range strike systems. Monthly PLA air incursions near Taiwan reached new lows in early 2026, and diplomatic channels with regional partners have remained active, reinforcing the current trader consensus on continued deterrence rather than kinetic conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,861,230Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 due to sustained U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing prioritizes gray-zone coercion—routine aircraft patrols, naval drills, and blockade simulations—over large-scale invasion preparations. No observable amphibious logistics, troop concentrations, or mobilization have appeared across the strait in recent months. The May 2026 Xi-Trump summit addressed cross-strait stability without triggering escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced asymmetric defenses through expanded funding for domestic weapons and long-range strike systems. Monthly PLA air incursions near Taiwan reached new lows in early 2026, and diplomatic channels with regional partners have remained active, reinforcing the current trader consensus on continued deterrence rather than kinetic conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes