US intelligence's March 18 assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, lacking a fixed unification timeline and favoring non-military coercion amid economic and security deterrents like amphibious assault challenges. This key development, coupled with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since January—including 17 incursion-free days in February-March—has solidified trader consensus at 85.5% for "No" on a military clash before 2027. Taiwan's legislature recently approved US arms deals to enhance deterrence, while reduced PLA activity signals de-escalation, though diplomatic frictions and Beijing's military modernization could shift odds if tensions escalate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$1,431,492 Vol.
$1,431,492 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$1,431,492 Vol.
$1,431,492 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence's March 18 assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, lacking a fixed unification timeline and favoring non-military coercion amid economic and security deterrents like amphibious assault challenges. This key development, coupled with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since January—including 17 incursion-free days in February-March—has solidified trader consensus at 85.5% for "No" on a military clash before 2027. Taiwan's legislature recently approved US arms deals to enhance deterrence, while reduced PLA activity signals de-escalation, though diplomatic frictions and Beijing's military modernization could shift odds if tensions escalate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,431,492Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence's March 18 assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, lacking a fixed unification timeline and favoring non-military coercion amid economic and security deterrents like amphibious assault challenges. This key development, coupled with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since January—including 17 incursion-free days in February-March—has solidified trader consensus at 85.5% for "No" on a military clash before 2027. Taiwan's legislature recently approved US arms deals to enhance deterrence, while reduced PLA activity signals de-escalation, though diplomatic frictions and Beijing's military modernization could shift odds if tensions escalate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,431,492Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence's March 18 assessment concludes Chinese leaders do not currently plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027, lacking a fixed unification timeline and favoring non-military coercion amid economic and security deterrents like amphibious assault challenges. This key development, coupled with a sharp decline in People's Liberation Army Air Force incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone since January—including 17 incursion-free days in February-March—has solidified trader consensus at 85.5% for "No" on a military clash before 2027. Taiwan's legislature recently approved US arms deals to enhance deterrence, while reduced PLA activity signals de-escalation, though diplomatic frictions and Beijing's military modernization could shift odds if tensions escalate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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