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icon for Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ?
Géopolitique·Taïwan

Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ?

icon for Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ?
Géopolitique·Taïwan

Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ?

juin 30

juin 30

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$1,344,573 Vol.

Oui

<1% chance
Polymarket

$1,344,573 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 99.5% reflects the structural barriers in Taiwan's impeachment process and the outcome of the May 19, 2026, Legislative Yuan vote.** That vote passed 56-50 but fell well short of the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) required to advance the motion to the Constitutional Court. Opposition parties hold at most 62 seats, insufficient to reach the threshold even with full cohesion. The motion originated in December 2025 after opposition lawmakers accused President Lai of constitutional violations tied to legislative funding disputes. Subsequent inquiries occurred in January and May, but the process stalled after the May defeat. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution date, no procedural mechanism exists for a successful follow-up vote absent extraordinary developments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain narrow. A sudden, large-scale realignment of legislators or an unforeseen constitutional reinterpretation would be necessary, yet neither aligns with current seat distribution or institutional timelines. The market pricing therefore captures the low probability of any near-term reversal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$1,344,573
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.**Trader consensus on "No" at 99.5% reflects the structural barriers in Taiwan's impeachment process and the outcome of the May 19, 2026, Legislative Yuan vote.** That vote passed 56-50 but fell well short of the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) required to advance the motion to the Constitutional Court. Opposition parties hold at most 62 seats, insufficient to reach the threshold even with full cohesion. The motion originated in December 2025 after opposition lawmakers accused President Lai of constitutional violations tied to legislative funding disputes. Subsequent inquiries occurred in January and May, but the process stalled after the May defeat. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution date, no procedural mechanism exists for a successful follow-up vote absent extraordinary developments. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain narrow. A sudden, large-scale realignment of legislators or an unforeseen constitutional reinterpretation would be necessary, yet neither aligns with current seat distribution or institutional timelines. The market pricing therefore captures the low probability of any near-term reversal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$1,344,573
Date de fin
30 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Destitution de Lai Ching-te d'ici le 30 juin ? » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 1¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 1% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ? » a généré $1.3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 2, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ? » est « Destitution de Lai Ching-te d'ici le 30 juin ? » à seulement 1%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Lai Ching-te mis en accusation avant le 30 juin ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.