Republican control of both the House and Senate following the 2024 elections drives the 88% implied probability against Donald Trump facing impeachment by the end of 2026, as advancing articles of impeachment requires a House majority vote that GOP leadership is poised to block. The incoming 119th Congress convenes in January 2025 with a Republican trifecta, further entrenching barriers to any Democratic-led effort, while Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority absent in current math. No recent official actions, scandals, or partisan calls for impeachment have emerged post-election; trader consensus reflects this structural reality and historical precedent of Trump's prior impeachments failing conviction. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the primary uncertainty, potentially altering congressional balances in a lame-duck session.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$639,496 Vol.
$639,496 Vol.
Oui
$639,496 Vol.
$639,496 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican control of both the House and Senate following the 2024 elections drives the 88% implied probability against Donald Trump facing impeachment by the end of 2026, as advancing articles of impeachment requires a House majority vote that GOP leadership is poised to block. The incoming 119th Congress convenes in January 2025 with a Republican trifecta, further entrenching barriers to any Democratic-led effort, while Senate conviction demands a two-thirds supermajority absent in current math. No recent official actions, scandals, or partisan calls for impeachment have emerged post-election; trader consensus reflects this structural reality and historical precedent of Trump's prior impeachments failing conviction. Midterm elections in November 2026 represent the primary uncertainty, potentially altering congressional balances in a lame-duck session.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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