Republican control of the House provides a formidable barrier to impeachment, requiring a simple majority to pass articles against President Trump, with GOP loyalty and slim margins making passage improbable before the market resolves on December 31, 2026. Recent Democratic impeachment resolutions, such as H.Res. 353, 415, and 939 introduced in the 119th Congress, have gained no traction amid partisan divides, even as critics cite low approval ratings, the ongoing Iran conflict, and tariff policies. Traders' 89% implied probability on "No" reflects this congressional math and historical precedent of failed partisan impeachments without bipartisan support, though 2026 midterms could shift dynamics post-resolution if Democrats flip the House in November. Late-breaking scandals or GOP defections remain low-probability catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$639,819 Vol.
$639,819 Vol.
Oui
$639,819 Vol.
$639,819 Vol.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Republican control of the House provides a formidable barrier to impeachment, requiring a simple majority to pass articles against President Trump, with GOP loyalty and slim margins making passage improbable before the market resolves on December 31, 2026. Recent Democratic impeachment resolutions, such as H.Res. 353, 415, and 939 introduced in the 119th Congress, have gained no traction amid partisan divides, even as critics cite low approval ratings, the ongoing Iran conflict, and tariff policies. Traders' 89% implied probability on "No" reflects this congressional math and historical precedent of failed partisan impeachments without bipartisan support, though 2026 midterms could shift dynamics post-resolution if Democrats flip the House in November. Late-breaking scandals or GOP defections remain low-probability catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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