Market icon
Politique·Taux De La Fed

Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ?

Market icon
Politique·Taux De La Fed

Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ?

3,75 % 33.9%

3,5 % 22%

3,25 % 13%

4,0 % 11.8%

Polymarket

$5,898,778 Vol.

3,75 % 33.9%

3,5 % 22%

3,25 % 13%

4,0 % 11.8%

Polymarket

$5,898,778 Vol.

≤1,0 %

$191,664 Vol.

2%

1,25

$99,125 Vol.

1%

1,5 %

$108,228 Vol.

<1%

1,75 %

$95,051 Vol.

<1%

2,0 %

$94,714 Vol.

1%

2,25 %

$58,424 Vol.

1%

2,5 %

$84,430 Vol.

1%

2,75 %

$23,409 Vol.

6%

3,0 %

$429,849 Vol.

6%

3,25 %

$37,509 Vol.

13%

3,5 %

$55,791 Vol.

22%

3,75 %

$489,278 Vol.

34%

4,0 %

$1,340,640 Vol.

12%

4,25 %

$403,343 Vol.

3%

≥ 4,5 %

$2,387,323 Vol.

3%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting post-March FOMC consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% range amid balanced risks. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with a dot plot median projecting just one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, anchored sentiment after February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and labor data softened with a surprise -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, have lifted 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, tempering aggressive cut expectations versus broker forecasts for two reductions to 3.25%-3.50%. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and May FOMC, with resolution hinging on inflation persistence and job market trends.

Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting post-March FOMC consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% range amid balanced risks. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with a dot plot median projecting just one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, anchored sentiment after February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and labor data softened with a surprise -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, have lifted 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, tempering aggressive cut expectations versus broker forecasts for two reductions to 3.25%-3.50%. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and May FOMC, with resolution hinging on inflation persistence and job market trends.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting post-March FOMC consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% range amid balanced risks. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with a dot plot median projecting just one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, anchored sentiment after February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and labor data softened with a surprise -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, have lifted 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, tempering aggressive cut expectations versus broker forecasts for two reductions to 3.25%-3.50%. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and May FOMC, with resolution hinging on inflation persistence and job market trends.

Polymarket traders price a 33.9% implied probability for the Fed funds rate at 3.75% by end-2026, reflecting post-March FOMC consensus for limited easing from the current 3.5%-3.75% range amid balanced risks. The Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady, coupled with a dot plot median projecting just one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, anchored sentiment after February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year and labor data softened with a surprise -92,000 nonfarm payroll drop and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict and rising energy prices, have lifted 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, tempering aggressive cut expectations versus broker forecasts for two reductions to 3.25%-3.50%. Key swing factors include upcoming March CPI on April 10 and May FOMC, with resolution hinging on inflation persistence and job market trends.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 15 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 3,75 % » à 34%, suivi de « 3,5 % » à 23%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 34¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ? » a généré $5.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 12, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ? », parcourez les 15 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ? » est « 3,75 % » à 34%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 34% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 3,5 % » à 23%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quel sera le taux de la Fed à la fin de 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.