Polymarket traders' overwhelming 98.1% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions in the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings reflects confirmed steady federal funds rate targeting at 3.50%–3.75% from the prior two gatherings, reinforced by resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch odds exceeding 98% for an April 28–29 hold, stems from balanced inflation trajectory near the Fed's 2% goal and steady policy guidance amid oil price pressures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI data sparking a hike or abrupt labor softening prompting a cut, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécisions de la Fed (janvier-avril)
Décisions de la Fed (janvier-avril)
Pause–Pause–Pause 98.1%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 1.4%
Autre <1%
$422,163 Vol.
$422,163 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
98%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
1%
Autre
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 98.1%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 1.4%
Autre <1%
$422,163 Vol.
$422,163 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$70,719 Vol.
98%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
$174,043 Vol.
1%
Autre
$137,415 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' overwhelming 98.1% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions in the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings reflects confirmed steady federal funds rate targeting at 3.50%–3.75% from the prior two gatherings, reinforced by resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch odds exceeding 98% for an April 28–29 hold, stems from balanced inflation trajectory near the Fed's 2% goal and steady policy guidance amid oil price pressures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI data sparking a hike or abrupt labor softening prompting a cut, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$422,163Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' overwhelming 98.1% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions in the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings reflects confirmed steady federal funds rate targeting at 3.50%–3.75% from the prior two gatherings, reinforced by resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch odds exceeding 98% for an April 28–29 hold, stems from balanced inflation trajectory near the Fed's 2% goal and steady policy guidance amid oil price pressures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI data sparking a hike or abrupt labor softening prompting a cut, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$422,163Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' overwhelming 98.1% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for Federal Reserve decisions in the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings reflects confirmed steady federal funds rate targeting at 3.50%–3.75% from the prior two gatherings, reinforced by resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.3%. This trader consensus, aligned with CME FedWatch odds exceeding 98% for an April 28–29 hold, stems from balanced inflation trajectory near the Fed's 2% goal and steady policy guidance amid oil price pressures. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI data sparking a hike or abrupt labor softening prompting a cut, though proximity to resolution limits volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes