Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, reflecting expectations that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% range. This pricing stems from resilient labor market data, persistent inflation above the 2% target, and recent Fed communications signaling caution ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. Futures markets and comparable prediction platforms show near-certain holds at the June meeting, with limited scope for cuts later in the year amid a new Fed chair transition. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot revisions and subsequent inflation prints that could shift rate path expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 65%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 sept. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
65%
Pause–Pause–Cut
24%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause 65%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 15%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 sept. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$307 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,038 Vol.
65%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$328 Vol.
24%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Vol.
2%
Other
$287 Vol.
14%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, reflecting expectations that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% range. This pricing stems from resilient labor market data, persistent inflation above the 2% target, and recent Fed communications signaling caution ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. Futures markets and comparable prediction platforms show near-certain holds at the June meeting, with limited scope for cuts later in the year amid a new Fed chair transition. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot revisions and subsequent inflation prints that could shift rate path expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$3,696Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, reflecting expectations that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% range. This pricing stems from resilient labor market data, persistent inflation above the 2% target, and recent Fed communications signaling caution ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. Futures markets and comparable prediction platforms show near-certain holds at the June meeting, with limited scope for cuts later in the year amid a new Fed chair transition. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot revisions and subsequent inflation prints that could shift rate path expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$3,696Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 65% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the June 16–17, July 28–29, and September 15–16 FOMC meetings, reflecting expectations that the federal funds rate will remain anchored in the 3.50%–3.75% range. This pricing stems from resilient labor market data, persistent inflation above the 2% target, and recent Fed communications signaling caution ahead of the June Summary of Economic Projections. Futures markets and comparable prediction platforms show near-certain holds at the June meeting, with limited scope for cuts later in the year amid a new Fed chair transition. Key upcoming catalysts include the June dot plot revisions and subsequent inflation prints that could shift rate path expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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