The acceleration in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged monetary policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April decision, the latest inflation print has shifted focus toward persistent price pressures rather than near-term easing, aligning with the 76% market-implied probability of a pause-pause-pause sequence. Recent communications and futures pricing underscore caution ahead of the June 16-17 meeting and its updated economic projections, where any signals of sustained inflation above target could further entrench the hold-through-summer outlook while leaving room for later adjustments if labor market conditions deteriorate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 7.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 sept. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
8%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Pause–Cut–Cut 7.6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 sept. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Vol.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Vol.
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 Vol.
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Vol.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
8%
Other
$122 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe acceleration in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged monetary policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April decision, the latest inflation print has shifted focus toward persistent price pressures rather than near-term easing, aligning with the 76% market-implied probability of a pause-pause-pause sequence. Recent communications and futures pricing underscore caution ahead of the June 16-17 meeting and its updated economic projections, where any signals of sustained inflation above target could further entrench the hold-through-summer outlook while leaving room for later adjustments if labor market conditions deteriorate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,450Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe acceleration in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged monetary policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April decision, the latest inflation print has shifted focus toward persistent price pressures rather than near-term easing, aligning with the 76% market-implied probability of a pause-pause-pause sequence. Recent communications and futures pricing underscore caution ahead of the June 16-17 meeting and its updated economic projections, where any signals of sustained inflation above target could further entrench the hold-through-summer outlook while leaving room for later adjustments if labor market conditions deteriorate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,450Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The acceleration in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 17.9% surge in energy costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader expectations for unchanged monetary policy at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate already steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April decision, the latest inflation print has shifted focus toward persistent price pressures rather than near-term easing, aligning with the 76% market-implied probability of a pause-pause-pause sequence. Recent communications and futures pricing underscore caution ahead of the June 16-17 meeting and its updated economic projections, where any signals of sustained inflation above target could further entrench the hold-through-summer outlook while leaving room for later adjustments if labor market conditions deteriorate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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