Recent July FOMC action, which held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75 percent on a 9–3 vote amid three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, has created closely balanced trader sentiment for the September and October meetings. Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept expectations for any near-term cuts minimal while elevating the odds of at least one hike, supporting the narrow edge for “Other” sequences over three consecutive pauses. Upcoming July and August CPI prints, along with the Jackson Hole symposium, remain the key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the next decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOther 49%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$667,193 Vol.
$667,193 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
49%
Other 49%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$667,193 Vol.
$667,193 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$225,781 Vol.
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$51,177 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,993 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$24,297 Vol.
<1%
Other
$290,459 Vol.
49%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC action, which held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75 percent on a 9–3 vote amid three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, has created closely balanced trader sentiment for the September and October meetings. Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept expectations for any near-term cuts minimal while elevating the odds of at least one hike, supporting the narrow edge for “Other” sequences over three consecutive pauses. Upcoming July and August CPI prints, along with the Jackson Hole symposium, remain the key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$667,193Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC action, which held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75 percent on a 9–3 vote amid three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, has created closely balanced trader sentiment for the September and October meetings. Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept expectations for any near-term cuts minimal while elevating the odds of at least one hike, supporting the narrow edge for “Other” sequences over three consecutive pauses. Upcoming July and August CPI prints, along with the Jackson Hole symposium, remain the key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$667,193Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July FOMC action, which held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75 percent on a 9–3 vote amid three hawkish dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, has created closely balanced trader sentiment for the September and October meetings. Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept expectations for any near-term cuts minimal while elevating the odds of at least one hike, supporting the narrow edge for “Other” sequences over three consecutive pauses. Upcoming July and August CPI prints, along with the Jackson Hole symposium, remain the key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the next decision.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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