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Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
$240m Vol.
$11m today
$7m Liq.
611
Ends in 11 months
46%
Kevin Warsh
Fed decision in January?
$445m Vol.
$21m Liq.
1,369
Ends in 6 days
98%
No change
Fed decision in March?
$3m Vol.
$260k today
$570k Liq.
418
Ends in about 2 months
80%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
$71.6k today
$854k Liq.
30
27%
3 (75 bps)
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
$968k Vol.
$83.6k Liq.
15
Ends in 9 days
Cut–Cut–Pause
Fed rate cut by...?
$428k Vol.
$99.5k Liq.
3
Ends in 5 months
61%
June Meeting
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
$63.9k Vol.
$190k Liq.
22%
3.0%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?
$57.1k Vol.
$15.9k Liq.
7
Ends in 2 months
55%
4.4%
Trump announces Fed Chair nominee by...?
$324k Vol.
$30.5k Liq.
14
99%
June 30, 2026
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
$588k Vol.
$131k Liq.
26
Ends in 4 months
8%
May 14
Fed decision in April?
$739k Vol.
$351k Liq.
Ends in 3 months
73%
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?
$97.8k Vol.
$28.8k Liq.
2
1%
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$466k Vol.
$141k Liq.
94%
↓ 3.25%
Major rate cut chances under each Fed Chair?
$7.0k Vol.
$99.6k Liq.
24%
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$37.0k Vol.
$19.8k Liq.
76%
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
$486k Vol.
$94.3k Liq.
1
75%
Cut–Pause–Pause
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$18.0k Vol.
$7.4k Liq.
3.9%
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
$66.1k Vol.
$11.3k Liq.
December 31
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?
$19.6k Vol.
$2.9k Liq.
34%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?
$10m Vol.
$5.0k Liq.
1,096
February 28, 2026
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