Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target and March dot plot median projecting a modest decline to 3.4% by year-end amid balanced risks. However, April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—and hotter-than-expected PPI have catalyzed a sharp repricing, lifting hike odds from near-zero to around 30% as markets digest persistent inflation pressures. Resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3% further bolsters growth signals, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where data-dependent guidance could sway sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,080,220 Vol.
$1,080,220 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Oui
$1,080,220 Vol.
$1,080,220 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target and March dot plot median projecting a modest decline to 3.4% by year-end amid balanced risks. However, April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—and hotter-than-expected PPI have catalyzed a sharp repricing, lifting hike odds from near-zero to around 30% as markets digest persistent inflation pressures. Resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3% further bolsters growth signals, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where data-dependent guidance could sway sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,080,220Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target and March dot plot median projecting a modest decline to 3.4% by year-end amid balanced risks. However, April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—and hotter-than-expected PPI have catalyzed a sharp repricing, lifting hike odds from near-zero to around 30% as markets digest persistent inflation pressures. Resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3% further bolsters growth signals, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where data-dependent guidance could sway sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,080,220Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate target and March dot plot median projecting a modest decline to 3.4% by year-end amid balanced risks. However, April CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—and hotter-than-expected PPI have catalyzed a sharp repricing, lifting hike odds from near-zero to around 30% as markets digest persistent inflation pressures. Resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3% further bolsters growth signals, tempering cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead include May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC meeting, where data-dependent guidance could sway sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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