The Federal Reserve's December 18 FOMC meeting drives the 77.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026, with the updated dot plot projecting the fed funds rate at a median 3.9% by year-end—down from current 4.25%-4.50% levels—reflecting trader consensus on a soft landing amid disinflation. Upward revisions to 2025 PCE inflation (to 2.5%) and GDP growth (to 2.1%), alongside a stable 4.2% unemployment rate, reduced expected 2025 cuts to two 25-basis-point moves but rule out hikes absent a major inflation rebound. November CPI data at 2.7% year-over-year (core 3.3%) reinforces this positioning. Watch January 10 CPI and the January 29 FOMC for potential shifts in rate path expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$595,589 Vol.
$595,589 Vol.
Oui
$595,589 Vol.
$595,589 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's December 18 FOMC meeting drives the 77.5% market-implied probability of no rate hike in 2026, with the updated dot plot projecting the fed funds rate at a median 3.9% by year-end—down from current 4.25%-4.50% levels—reflecting trader consensus on a soft landing amid disinflation. Upward revisions to 2025 PCE inflation (to 2.5%) and GDP growth (to 2.1%), alongside a stable 4.2% unemployment rate, reduced expected 2025 cuts to two 25-basis-point moves but rule out hikes absent a major inflation rebound. November CPI data at 2.7% year-over-year (core 3.3%) reinforces this positioning. Watch January 10 CPI and the January 29 FOMC for potential shifts in rate path expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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