Trader consensus prices Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote tightly around 51 to 60 yes votes, reflecting Republican holdouts amid a 53-47 GOP majority needing near-unity for bare passage while 60+ would signal crossover Democratic support or filibuster avoidance. Sen. Thom Tillis's opposition—conditioned on dropping a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell, which prosecutors admitted last week lacks evidence—has stalled scheduling of Banking Committee hearings since the March 4 nomination transmittal, creating impasse risks including no vote by year-end. Recent Warren scrutiny of Warsh's Epstein file mentions adds Democratic resistance, but White House pressure and Powell's pledge to stay until a successor is confirmed keep confirmation viable; a hearing could reveal whip counts and tip probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour60+ 35%
54 11.1%
53 9%
≤49 5.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
6%
50
4%
51
31%
52
6%
53
9%
54
25%
55
7%
56
4%
57
4%
58
4%
59
3%
60+
35%
Aucun vote d'ici le 31 déc./Retiré
5%
60+ 35%
54 11.1%
53 9%
≤49 5.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
$0 Vol.
6%
50
$0 Vol.
4%
51
$0 Vol.
31%
52
$0 Vol.
6%
53
$0 Vol.
9%
54
$0 Vol.
25%
55
$0 Vol.
7%
56
$0 Vol.
4%
57
$0 Vol.
4%
58
$0 Vol.
4%
59
$0 Vol.
3%
60+
$0 Vol.
35%
Aucun vote d'ici le 31 déc./Retiré
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote tightly around 51 to 60 yes votes, reflecting Republican holdouts amid a 53-47 GOP majority needing near-unity for bare passage while 60+ would signal crossover Democratic support or filibuster avoidance. Sen. Thom Tillis's opposition—conditioned on dropping a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell, which prosecutors admitted last week lacks evidence—has stalled scheduling of Banking Committee hearings since the March 4 nomination transmittal, creating impasse risks including no vote by year-end. Recent Warren scrutiny of Warsh's Epstein file mentions adds Democratic resistance, but White House pressure and Powell's pledge to stay until a successor is confirmed keep confirmation viable; a hearing could reveal whip counts and tip probabilities.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote tightly around 51 to 60 yes votes, reflecting Republican holdouts amid a 53-47 GOP majority needing near-unity for bare passage while 60+ would signal crossover Democratic support or filibuster avoidance. Sen. Thom Tillis's opposition—conditioned on dropping a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell, which prosecutors admitted last week lacks evidence—has stalled scheduling of Banking Committee hearings since the March 4 nomination transmittal, creating impasse risks including no vote by year-end. Recent Warren scrutiny of Warsh's Epstein file mentions adds Democratic resistance, but White House pressure and Powell's pledge to stay until a successor is confirmed keep confirmation viable; a hearing could reveal whip counts and tip probabilities.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote tightly around 51 to 60 yes votes, reflecting Republican holdouts amid a 53-47 GOP majority needing near-unity for bare passage while 60+ would signal crossover Democratic support or filibuster avoidance. Sen. Thom Tillis's opposition—conditioned on dropping a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell, which prosecutors admitted last week lacks evidence—has stalled scheduling of Banking Committee hearings since the March 4 nomination transmittal, creating impasse risks including no vote by year-end. Recent Warren scrutiny of Warsh's Epstein file mentions adds Democratic resistance, but White House pressure and Powell's pledge to stay until a successor is confirmed keep confirmation viable; a hearing could reveal whip counts and tip probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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