Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid somewhat elevated inflation and resilient growth. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report, revealing a 178,000 job gain—well above economist estimates—and a dip in unemployment to 4.3%, has reinforced this positioning by signaling a robust labor market that diminishes near-term rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but sticky core pressures persist. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and April 28-29 meeting as pivotal, with the March Summary of Economic Projections forecasting modest easing only later in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 9%
Autre 5.5%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse 1.3%
$720,578 Vol.
$720,578 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
9%
Autre
6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
1%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
<1%
Pause–pause–pause 86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 9%
Autre 5.5%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse 1.3%
$720,578 Vol.
$720,578 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
$22,101 Vol.
86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
$11,282 Vol.
9%
Autre
$211,071 Vol.
6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
$345,747 Vol.
1%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
$130,376 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid somewhat elevated inflation and resilient growth. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report, revealing a 178,000 job gain—well above economist estimates—and a dip in unemployment to 4.3%, has reinforced this positioning by signaling a robust labor market that diminishes near-term rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but sticky core pressures persist. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and April 28-29 meeting as pivotal, with the March Summary of Economic Projections forecasting modest easing only later in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$720,578Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid somewhat elevated inflation and resilient growth. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report, revealing a 178,000 job gain—well above economist estimates—and a dip in unemployment to 4.3%, has reinforced this positioning by signaling a robust labor market that diminishes near-term rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but sticky core pressures persist. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and April 28-29 meeting as pivotal, with the March Summary of Economic Projections forecasting modest easing only later in 2026.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$720,578Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid somewhat elevated inflation and resilient growth. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report, revealing a 178,000 job gain—well above economist estimates—and a dip in unemployment to 4.3%, has reinforced this positioning by signaling a robust labor market that diminishes near-term rate-cut urgency. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but sticky core pressures persist. Traders eye the April 10 CPI release and April 28-29 meeting as pivotal, with the March Summary of Economic Projections forecasting modest easing only later in 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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