Polymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for Fed pauses across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meetings reflects resilient economic data offsetting earlier cut hopes, with the federal funds target range held steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight session in April. March CPI inflation reaccelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while PCE hit 3.5%, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains, aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate near current levels. Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized persistent inflation risks, bolstering pause consensus. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April jobs or CPI data—due May 12—to shift sentiment ahead of June.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 96%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 2.7%
Autre 1.4%
$1,038,120 Vol.
$1,038,120 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
96%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
3%
Autre
1%
Pause–pause–pause 96%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 2.7%
Autre 1.4%
$1,038,120 Vol.
$1,038,120 Vol.
17 juin 2026
Pause–pause–pause
$46,708 Vol.
96%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
$23,101 Vol.
3%
Autre
$222,969 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for Fed pauses across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meetings reflects resilient economic data offsetting earlier cut hopes, with the federal funds target range held steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight session in April. March CPI inflation reaccelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while PCE hit 3.5%, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains, aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate near current levels. Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized persistent inflation risks, bolstering pause consensus. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April jobs or CPI data—due May 12—to shift sentiment ahead of June.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,038,120Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for Fed pauses across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meetings reflects resilient economic data offsetting earlier cut hopes, with the federal funds target range held steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight session in April. March CPI inflation reaccelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while PCE hit 3.5%, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains, aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate near current levels. Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized persistent inflation risks, bolstering pause consensus. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April jobs or CPI data—due May 12—to shift sentiment ahead of June.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,038,120Date de fin
17 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' 95.5% implied probability for Fed pauses across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meetings reflects resilient economic data offsetting earlier cut hopes, with the federal funds target range held steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the third straight session in April. March CPI inflation reaccelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while PCE hit 3.5%, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate and 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains, aligning with the March dot plot's median end-2026 rate near current levels. Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized persistent inflation risks, bolstering pause consensus. A realistic challenge would require sharply softer April jobs or CPI data—due May 12—to shift sentiment ahead of June.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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