Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Committee's unanimous decision to pause at the March 18 gathering amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a resilient labor market. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—exceeding forecasts—with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%, further diminishing near-term rate-cut expectations and boosting the adjacent Pause-Pause-Cut outcome to 9%. Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid oil price pressures from Middle East tensions, with traders eyeing April CPI data and the April 28-29 meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPause–pause–pause 86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 9%
Autre 5.6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse 1.4%
$720,587 Vol.
$720,587 Vol.
Pause–pause–pause
86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
9%
Autre
6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
1%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
<1%
Pause–pause–pause 86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse 9%
Autre 5.6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse 1.4%
$720,587 Vol.
$720,587 Vol.
Pause–pause–pause
86%
Pause–Pause–Baisse
9%
Autre
6%
Pause–Baisse–Baisse
1%
Pause–Baisse–Pause
<1%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 85.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.5%-3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Committee's unanimous decision to pause at the March 18 gathering amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a resilient labor market. Yesterday's March nonfarm payrolls report revealed 178,000 jobs added—exceeding forecasts—with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%, further diminishing near-term rate-cut expectations and boosting the adjacent Pause-Pause-Cut outcome to 9%. Chair Powell's recent remarks emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance amid oil price pressures from Middle East tensions, with traders eyeing April CPI data and the April 28-29 meeting as pivotal catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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