Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a near-term Fed rate cut, anchored by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—signaling stalled disinflation amid a resilient labor market with 178,000 nonfarm payrolls added. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 FOMC meeting, where the dot plot penciled in just one cut for all of 2026 and Chair Powell emphasized data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation risks. CME FedWatch Tool reflects over 98% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with Treasury yields steady as markets await April CPI and PCE data for clues on policy path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$1,375,265 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
11%
Réunion de juillet
21%
Réunion de septembre
38%
Réunion d'octobre
58%
Réunion de décembre
60%
$1,375,265 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
11%
Réunion de juillet
21%
Réunion de septembre
38%
Réunion d'octobre
58%
Réunion de décembre
60%
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a near-term Fed rate cut, anchored by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—signaling stalled disinflation amid a resilient labor market with 178,000 nonfarm payrolls added. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 FOMC meeting, where the dot plot penciled in just one cut for all of 2026 and Chair Powell emphasized data-dependent policy amid elevated inflation risks. CME FedWatch Tool reflects over 98% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with Treasury yields steady as markets await April CPI and PCE data for clues on policy path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes