Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a high implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by March's stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—and unemployment dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%, signaling labor market resilience amid sticky inflation. The federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 17-18 FOMC's hold, with recent oil price spikes from Iran-related geopolitical tensions raising end-2026 hike odds to around 50% per futures markets. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but March data due April 10 could show acceleration. Upcoming catalysts include that CPI release and Powell's remarks, potentially shifting rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,277,565 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
11%
Réunion de juillet
21%
Réunion de septembre
43%
Réunion d'octobre
55%
Réunion de décembre
64%
$1,277,565 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
11%
Réunion de juillet
21%
Réunion de septembre
43%
Réunion d'octobre
55%
Réunion de décembre
64%
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a high implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate cut at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, driven by March's stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs—exceeding forecasts—and unemployment dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%, signaling labor market resilience amid sticky inflation. The federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 17-18 FOMC's hold, with recent oil price spikes from Iran-related geopolitical tensions raising end-2026 hike odds to around 50% per futures markets. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, but March data due April 10 could show acceleration. Upcoming catalysts include that CPI release and Powell's remarks, potentially shifting rate path expectations if inflation reaccelerates.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes