Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29, 2026 meeting, reflecting the FOMC’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range amid April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy prices tied to geopolitical oil shocks. Minutes from the April meeting showed participants anticipating little near-term policy adjustment, with market-implied paths pointing to any easing only in late 2026 or 2027. This consensus aligns with anchored longer-term inflation expectations and a resilient labor market. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation readings or a sudden deterioration in employment data could introduce modest scope for a 25-basis-point cut, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 93%
Hausse de 25 points de base 5.1%
Baisse de 25 points de base 2.5%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$6,472,017 Vol.
$6,472,017 Vol.
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
2%
Aucun changement
93%
Hausse de 25 points de base
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Aucun changement 93%
Hausse de 25 points de base 5.1%
Baisse de 25 points de base 2.5%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$6,472,017 Vol.
$6,472,017 Vol.
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
2%
Aucun changement
93%
Hausse de 25 points de base
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29, 2026 meeting, reflecting the FOMC’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range amid April CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven largely by a 17.9% surge in energy prices tied to geopolitical oil shocks. Minutes from the April meeting showed participants anticipating little near-term policy adjustment, with market-implied paths pointing to any easing only in late 2026 or 2027. This consensus aligns with anchored longer-term inflation expectations and a resilient labor market. A sharper-than-expected decline in May or June inflation readings or a sudden deterioration in employment data could introduce modest scope for a 25-basis-point cut, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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