Market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—elevated by energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions—and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Recent Fed communications, including the April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% amid mixed voting and an easing bias in the statement, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will monitor incoming data before any adjustment. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and subsequent releases on inflation and employment will serve as key catalysts, though realistic scenarios such as a sharper-than-expected inflation moderation or labor market softening could still shift the market-implied path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 93%
Hausse de 25 points de base 5.3%
Baisse de 25 points de base 2.4%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$6,489,888 Vol.
$6,489,888 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
2%
Aucun changement
93%
Hausse de 25 points de base
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Aucun changement 93%
Hausse de 25 points de base 5.3%
Baisse de 25 points de base 2.4%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$6,489,888 Vol.
$6,489,888 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
$713,325 Vol.
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$630,118 Vol.
2%
Aucun changement
$822,025 Vol.
93%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$3,576,453 Vol.
5%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$748,167 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—elevated by energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions—and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Recent Fed communications, including the April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% amid mixed voting and an easing bias in the statement, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will monitor incoming data before any adjustment. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and subsequent releases on inflation and employment will serve as key catalysts, though realistic scenarios such as a sharper-than-expected inflation moderation or labor market softening could still shift the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,489,888Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—elevated by energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions—and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Recent Fed communications, including the April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% amid mixed voting and an easing bias in the statement, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will monitor incoming data before any adjustment. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and subsequent releases on inflation and employment will serve as key catalysts, though realistic scenarios such as a sharper-than-expected inflation moderation or labor market softening could still shift the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$6,489,888Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus for no change at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the April 2026 CPI reading of 3.8% year-over-year—elevated by energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions—and a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Recent Fed communications, including the April decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% amid mixed voting and an easing bias in the statement, have reinforced expectations that policymakers will monitor incoming data before any adjustment. The closely watched June 16–17 meeting and subsequent releases on inflation and employment will serve as key catalysts, though realistic scenarios such as a sharper-than-expected inflation moderation or labor market softening could still shift the market-implied path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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