Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% "No" probability for a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. economy's resilient soft landing trajectory, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, inflation cooling to 2.7% core PCE, and GDP growth exceeding 3% annualized in Q3. Recent catalysts include the robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating estimates—and the Fed's November dot plot signaling just two 25bps cuts in 2025 via scheduled FOMC meetings, obviating off-cycle action absent a severe shock like 2020's pandemic. Absent banking stress or sharp labor cracks, market-implied odds price in low crisis risk through 2026, with traders wagering real capital on continued stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourBaisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?
Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?
Oui
$65,178 Vol.
$65,178 Vol.
Oui
$65,178 Vol.
$65,178 Vol.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% "No" probability for a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027, driven primarily by the U.S. economy's resilient soft landing trajectory, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, inflation cooling to 2.7% core PCE, and GDP growth exceeding 3% annualized in Q3. Recent catalysts include the robust November nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating estimates—and the Fed's November dot plot signaling just two 25bps cuts in 2025 via scheduled FOMC meetings, obviating off-cycle action absent a severe shock like 2020's pandemic. Absent banking stress or sharp labor cracks, market-implied odds price in low crisis risk through 2026, with traders wagering real capital on continued stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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