The 94% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the current policy stance of holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated at 3.5% year-over-year. Traders see limited scope for unscheduled easing given the absence of acute financial stress or recession signals, with recent FOMC communications emphasizing price stability over accommodation and markets pricing in potential modest hikes rather than cuts through year-end 2026. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where emergency moves typically require sharp downturns or crises absent here. Still, escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sudden spike in energy prices, or rapid deterioration in employment data could introduce volatility and reopen the door to such action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBaisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?
Baisse du taux d'urgence de la Fed avant 2027 ?
Oui
6% chance
$122,583 Vol.
$122,583 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$122,583 Vol.
$122,583 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the current policy stance of holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated at 3.5% year-over-year. Traders see limited scope for unscheduled easing given the absence of acute financial stress or recession signals, with recent FOMC communications emphasizing price stability over accommodation and markets pricing in potential modest hikes rather than cuts through year-end 2026. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where emergency moves typically require sharp downturns or crises absent here. Still, escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sudden spike in energy prices, or rapid deterioration in employment data could introduce volatility and reopen the door to such action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$122,583Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the current policy stance of holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated at 3.5% year-over-year. Traders see limited scope for unscheduled easing given the absence of acute financial stress or recession signals, with recent FOMC communications emphasizing price stability over accommodation and markets pricing in potential modest hikes rather than cuts through year-end 2026. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where emergency moves typically require sharp downturns or crises absent here. Still, escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sudden spike in energy prices, or rapid deterioration in employment data could introduce volatility and reopen the door to such action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$122,583Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 94% market-implied probability against a Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the current policy stance of holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2%, and inflation remaining elevated at 3.5% year-over-year. Traders see limited scope for unscheduled easing given the absence of acute financial stress or recession signals, with recent FOMC communications emphasizing price stability over accommodation and markets pricing in potential modest hikes rather than cuts through year-end 2026. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where emergency moves typically require sharp downturns or crises absent here. Still, escalation in geopolitical tensions, a sudden spike in energy prices, or rapid deterioration in employment data could introduce volatility and reopen the door to such action.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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