Trader sentiment on Polymarket for Apple (AAPL) closing above key thresholds by March 31 reflects a 62% implied probability of upside, driven primarily by robust iPhone 16 demand amid AI feature hype and a 12% services revenue surge in Q4 2024 earnings. Current share price hovers near $226, up 25% YTD on Nasdaq momentum from Fed rate cuts to 4.25-4.50%. Key risks include softening China sales (down 11% last quarter) and antitrust scrutiny, while catalysts loom: January 30 Q1 earnings and March 19 FOMC meeting, where persistent inflation could cap tech gains. Historical March closes average +2% for AAPL, but volatility spikes near quarter-end position sizing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$329,341 Vol.
210 $
99%
220 $
94%
230 $
91%
240 $
76%
250 $
42%
260 $
7%
270 $
4%
280 $
5%
290 $
2%
300 $
1%
310 $
1%
320 $
1%
330 $
<1%
$329,341 Vol.
210 $
99%
220 $
94%
230 $
91%
240 $
76%
250 $
42%
260 $
7%
270 $
4%
280 $
5%
290 $
2%
300 $
1%
310 $
1%
320 $
1%
330 $
<1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for Apple (AAPL) closing above key thresholds by March 31 reflects a 62% implied probability of upside, driven primarily by robust iPhone 16 demand amid AI feature hype and a 12% services revenue surge in Q4 2024 earnings. Current share price hovers near $226, up 25% YTD on Nasdaq momentum from Fed rate cuts to 4.25-4.50%. Key risks include softening China sales (down 11% last quarter) and antitrust scrutiny, while catalysts loom: January 30 Q1 earnings and March 19 FOMC meeting, where persistent inflation could cap tech gains. Historical March closes average +2% for AAPL, but volatility spikes near quarter-end position sizing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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