Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability against crude oil—likely referencing WTI front-month futures—reaching its all-time high of approximately $147 per barrel by March 31 close, driven by current spot levels hovering around $103/bbl despite a 50% March surge fueled by escalating US-Israeli tensions with Iran. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects ample supply buffers from non-OPEC producers and insufficient remaining catalysts for a 40% intraday spike amid high volatility but capped risk appetite. Tail risks include sudden Strait of Hormuz disruptions or broader Middle East conflict escalation, though traders deem these improbable given real-time geopolitical pricing. Resolution hinges on final NYMEX settlement today.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPétrole brut à son plus haut niveau historique d'ici le 31 mars ?
Pétrole brut à son plus haut niveau historique d'ici le 31 mars ?
Oui
$777,027 Vol.
$777,027 Vol.
Oui
$777,027 Vol.
$777,027 Vol.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.6% implied probability against crude oil—likely referencing WTI front-month futures—reaching its all-time high of approximately $147 per barrel by March 31 close, driven by current spot levels hovering around $103/bbl despite a 50% March surge fueled by escalating US-Israeli tensions with Iran. This skin-in-the-game assessment reflects ample supply buffers from non-OPEC producers and insufficient remaining catalysts for a 40% intraday spike amid high volatility but capped risk appetite. Tail risks include sudden Strait of Hormuz disruptions or broader Middle East conflict escalation, though traders deem these improbable given real-time geopolitical pricing. Resolution hinges on final NYMEX settlement today.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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