Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors gold (GC) March settlement below $4,750, with an 80% implied probability, reflecting a primary driver of post-election USD strength and rising Treasury yields that have capped gold's rally after peaking near $2,800 per ounce in October. Recent developments, including robust US jobs data and scaled-back Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the December FOMC, have pressured non-yielding assets like gold, pulling spot prices back toward $2,630. While central bank buying and geopolitical tensions provide tailwind support, market-implied odds assign slim chances (under 20% combined) to $4,750+ outcomes, viewing explosive upside as contingent on major shocks like inflation resurgence or conflict escalation. Upcoming CPI releases and Fed dots will be pivotal for refining these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÀ quoi l'or (GC) se règlera-t-il en mars ?
À quoi l'or (GC) se règlera-t-il en mars ?
Moins de 4 750 $ 80%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $ 11%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $ 6.3%
5 000 $-5 125 $ 3.1%
$24,217 Vol.
$24,217 Vol.
Moins de 4 750 $
80%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $
11%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $
6%
5 000 $-5 125 $
3%
5 125 $ - 5 250 $
1%
5 250 $ - 5 375 $
1%
5 375-5 500 $
1%
5 500 $-5 625 $
1%
5 625 $ - 5 750 $
1%
5 750 $+
<1%
Moins de 4 750 $ 80%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $ 11%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $ 6.3%
5 000 $-5 125 $ 3.1%
$24,217 Vol.
$24,217 Vol.
Moins de 4 750 $
80%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $
11%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $
6%
5 000 $-5 125 $
3%
5 125 $ - 5 250 $
1%
5 250 $ - 5 375 $
1%
5 375-5 500 $
1%
5 500 $-5 625 $
1%
5 625 $ - 5 750 $
1%
5 750 $+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors gold (GC) March settlement below $4,750, with an 80% implied probability, reflecting a primary driver of post-election USD strength and rising Treasury yields that have capped gold's rally after peaking near $2,800 per ounce in October. Recent developments, including robust US jobs data and scaled-back Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the December FOMC, have pressured non-yielding assets like gold, pulling spot prices back toward $2,630. While central bank buying and geopolitical tensions provide tailwind support, market-implied odds assign slim chances (under 20% combined) to $4,750+ outcomes, viewing explosive upside as contingent on major shocks like inflation resurgence or conflict escalation. Upcoming CPI releases and Fed dots will be pivotal for refining these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes