Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to Gold (GC) March 2025 futures settling below $4,750 per ounce, reflecting the contract's current trading level around $2,640—well shy of even the $4,750 threshold—amid a post-US election selloff. Gold spot plunged over 4% on November 6 following Donald Trump's victory, as the US dollar index surged to multi-year highs and 10-year Treasury yields spiked above 4.3%, diminishing gold's safe-haven allure and pressuring non-yielding assets. Expectations of pro-growth fiscal policies, potential inflation from tariffs, and a hawkish Federal Reserve path have tempered bullish momentum from prior rate cuts. Upcoming November CPI data on the 13th and December FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts that could further influence rate cut odds and USD strength.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÀ quoi l'or (GC) se règlera-t-il en mars ?
À quoi l'or (GC) se règlera-t-il en mars ?
Moins de 4 750 $ 81%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $ 12%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $ 3.3%
5 000 $-5 125 $ 2.7%
$29,885 Vol.
$29,885 Vol.
Moins de 4 750 $
81%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $
12%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $
3%
5 000 $-5 125 $
3%
5 125 $ - 5 250 $
1%
5 250 $ - 5 375 $
1%
5 375-5 500 $
2%
5 500 $-5 625 $
1%
5 625 $ - 5 750 $
1%
5 750 $+
<1%
Moins de 4 750 $ 81%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $ 12%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $ 3.3%
5 000 $-5 125 $ 2.7%
$29,885 Vol.
$29,885 Vol.
Moins de 4 750 $
81%
4 750 $ - 4 875 $
12%
4 875 $ - 5 000 $
3%
5 000 $-5 125 $
3%
5 125 $ - 5 250 $
1%
5 250 $ - 5 375 $
1%
5 375-5 500 $
2%
5 500 $-5 625 $
1%
5 625 $ - 5 750 $
1%
5 750 $+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to Gold (GC) March 2025 futures settling below $4,750 per ounce, reflecting the contract's current trading level around $2,640—well shy of even the $4,750 threshold—amid a post-US election selloff. Gold spot plunged over 4% on November 6 following Donald Trump's victory, as the US dollar index surged to multi-year highs and 10-year Treasury yields spiked above 4.3%, diminishing gold's safe-haven allure and pressuring non-yielding assets. Expectations of pro-growth fiscal policies, potential inflation from tariffs, and a hawkish Federal Reserve path have tempered bullish momentum from prior rate cuts. Upcoming November CPI data on the 13th and December FOMC meeting loom as key catalysts that could further influence rate cut odds and USD strength.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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