Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $90 in March, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical risks tightening global supply. Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian refineries have curtailed output by an estimated 10% at key facilities, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue to disrupt 12% of seaborne trade, inflating shipping costs and delivery delays. Supporting this bullish tilt, the latest EIA report showed a 1.6 million barrel inventory draw—larger than consensus—amid steady U.S. production at 13.3 million bpd. OPEC+ adherence to voluntary cuts through Q1 adds further upward pressure, though softer Chinese demand growth caps gains below 80% odds for $90+. Watch Thursday's EIA update and March 3 OPEC+ meeting for potential catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour90 $+ 69%
80 $ - 85 $ 13.2%
85$-90$ 12%
75-80 $ 2.9%
$968,204 Vol.
$968,204 Vol.
<60 $
<1%
60 $ - 65 $
<1%
65 $ - 70 $
1%
70 $ - 75 $
2%
75-80 $
3%
80 $ - 85 $
13%
85$-90$
12%
90 $+
69%
90 $+ 69%
80 $ - 85 $ 13.2%
85$-90$ 12%
75-80 $ 2.9%
$968,204 Vol.
$968,204 Vol.
<60 $
<1%
60 $ - 65 $
<1%
65 $ - 70 $
1%
70 $ - 75 $
2%
75-80 $
3%
80 $ - 85 $
13%
85$-90$
12%
90 $+
69%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $90 in March, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical risks tightening global supply. Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian refineries have curtailed output by an estimated 10% at key facilities, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue to disrupt 12% of seaborne trade, inflating shipping costs and delivery delays. Supporting this bullish tilt, the latest EIA report showed a 1.6 million barrel inventory draw—larger than consensus—amid steady U.S. production at 13.3 million bpd. OPEC+ adherence to voluntary cuts through Q1 adds further upward pressure, though softer Chinese demand growth caps gains below 80% odds for $90+. Watch Thursday's EIA update and March 3 OPEC+ meeting for potential catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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