Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for June WTI crude oil (CL) futures settling above $84, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Israel's recent strikes on Iran—adding a substantial geopolitical risk premium to benchmarks. OPEC+ compliance with extended voluntary production cuts of over 2 million barrels per day sustains supply restraint, while last week's EIA report showed a surprise 3.6 million barrel crude inventory draw, far exceeding forecasts and affirming demand strength amid peak summer driving season. The futures curve's backwardation signals near-term tightness, though softening Chinese demand signals and ample non-OPEC supply cap upside; upcoming EIA releases and Fed rate cut expectations will influence positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
À quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 59%
77 $–84 $ 13%
70 $ - 77 $ 11.6%
63 $-70 $ 9%
$84,247 Vol.
$84,247 Vol.
<42 $
1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
3%
56 $-63 $
8%
63 $-70 $
9%
70 $ - 77 $
12%
77 $–84 $
13%
>84 $
59%
>84 $ 59%
77 $–84 $ 13%
70 $ - 77 $ 11.6%
63 $-70 $ 9%
$84,247 Vol.
$84,247 Vol.
<42 $
1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
3%
56 $-63 $
8%
63 $-70 $
9%
70 $ - 77 $
12%
77 $–84 $
13%
>84 $
59%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60% implied probability for June WTI crude oil (CL) futures settling above $84, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Israel's recent strikes on Iran—adding a substantial geopolitical risk premium to benchmarks. OPEC+ compliance with extended voluntary production cuts of over 2 million barrels per day sustains supply restraint, while last week's EIA report showed a surprise 3.6 million barrel crude inventory draw, far exceeding forecasts and affirming demand strength amid peak summer driving season. The futures curve's backwardation signals near-term tightness, though softening Chinese demand signals and ample non-OPEC supply cap upside; upcoming EIA releases and Fed rate cut expectations will influence positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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