Traders express near-certain confidence that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face no federal charges by June 30, driven by the complete absence of DOJ investigations, indictments, or credible allegations of criminal misconduct. Recent developments, including Powell's December congressional testimonies on inflation and rate cuts, plus routine Fed policy meetings, have fueled political rhetoric—such as President-elect Trump's calls for his replacement post-2026 term—but yielded no legal proceedings. The Fed's statutory independence and unprecedented nature of charging a sitting chair reinforce this trader consensus. Potential shifts could stem from a surprise special counsel appointment or late-breaking evidence of corruption, though no such catalysts have emerged.