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Élections·Élections Mondiales

Prochaine élection présidentielle française

Market icon
Élections·Élections Mondiales

Prochaine élection présidentielle française

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$20,809,365 Vol.

Jordan Bardella 25%

Édouard Philippe 21%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%

Marine Le Pen 8%

Polymarket

$20,809,365 Vol.

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Jordan Bardella

$583,274 Vol.

25%

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Édouard Philippe

$356,373 Vol.

21%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$207,946 Vol.

10%

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Marine Le Pen

$277,464 Vol.

8%

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Dominique de Villepin

$756,307 Vol.

5%

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Bruno Retailleau

$847,036 Vol.

4%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$414,165 Vol.

4%

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François Hollande

$509,102 Vol.

4%

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Sarah Knafo

$900,665 Vol.

3%

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David Lisnard

$620,480 Vol.

3%

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Gabriel Attal

$780,172 Vol.

3%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$565,797 Vol.

2%

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Jean Castex

$431,726 Vol.

2%

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Gérald Darmanin

$272,995 Vol.

1%

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Fabien Roussel

$785,782 Vol.

1%

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Éric Zemmour

$308,116 Vol.

1%

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Juan Branco

$243,496 Vol.

1%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,052,528 Vol.

1%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$227,551 Vol.

1%

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Titre du groupe : Manuel Bompard

$654,170 Vol.

1%

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François Ruffin

$250,343 Vol.

1%

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Marine Tondelier

$306,860 Vol.

1%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$228,991 Vol.

<1%

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François Asselineau

$802,763 Vol.

<1%

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Valérie Pécresse

$744,238 Vol.

<1%

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Élisabeth Borne

$699,008 Vol.

<1%

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Xavier Bertrand

$408,845 Vol.

<1%

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Olivier Faure

$522,241 Vol.

<1%

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Clémentine Autain

$1,038,313 Vol.

<1%

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François Bayrou

$636,219 Vol.

<1%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$488,016 Vol.

<1%

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Clémence Guetté

$784,347 Vol.

<1%

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Ségolène Royal

$744,040 Vol.

<1%

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Titre d'élément du groupe: Carole Delga

$654,925 Vol.

<1%

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Michel Barnier

$717,419 Vol.

<1%

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Mathilde Panot

$988,205 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Political instability intensified after Michel Barnier's government fell to a no-confidence vote on December 4, boosting early frontrunners for the 2027 presidential election amid a fragmented National Assembly lacking a majority. Jordan Bardella's trader-implied 24.5% lead reflects National Rally's momentum from the July snap legislative elections and his positioning as the party's rising star, especially with Marine Le Pen's recent embezzlement conviction denting her prospects. Édouard Philippe at 20.5% benefits from his centrist Horizons party appeal and former prime minister credentials, positioning him as a moderate right alternative. The tight race underscores uncertainty in France's two-round system, with no-confidence fallout, upcoming prime ministerial appointment, and coalition talks as key catalysts that could separate leaders or consolidate the field.

Political instability intensified after Michel Barnier's government fell to a no-confidence vote on December 4, boosting early frontrunners for the 2027 presidential election amid a fragmented National Assembly lacking a majority. Jordan Bardella's trader-implied 24.5% lead reflects National Rally's momentum from the July snap legislative elections and his positioning as the party's rising star, especially with Marine Le Pen's recent embezzlement conviction denting her prospects. Édouard Philippe at 20.5% benefits from his centrist Horizons party appeal and former prime minister credentials, positioning him as a moderate right alternative. The tight race underscores uncertainty in France's two-round system, with no-confidence fallout, upcoming prime ministerial appointment, and coalition talks as key catalysts that could separate leaders or consolidate the field.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Political instability intensified after Michel Barnier's government fell to a no-confidence vote on December 4, boosting early frontrunners for the 2027 presidential election amid a fragmented National Assembly lacking a majority. Jordan Bardella's trader-implied 24.5% lead reflects National Rally's momentum from the July snap legislative elections and his positioning as the party's rising star, especially with Marine Le Pen's recent embezzlement conviction denting her prospects. Édouard Philippe at 20.5% benefits from his centrist Horizons party appeal and former prime minister credentials, positioning him as a moderate right alternative. The tight race underscores uncertainty in France's two-round system, with no-confidence fallout, upcoming prime ministerial appointment, and coalition talks as key catalysts that could separate leaders or consolidate the field.

Political instability intensified after Michel Barnier's government fell to a no-confidence vote on December 4, boosting early frontrunners for the 2027 presidential election amid a fragmented National Assembly lacking a majority. Jordan Bardella's trader-implied 24.5% lead reflects National Rally's momentum from the July snap legislative elections and his positioning as the party's rising star, especially with Marine Le Pen's recent embezzlement conviction denting her prospects. Édouard Philippe at 20.5% benefits from his centrist Horizons party appeal and former prime minister credentials, positioning him as a moderate right alternative. The tight race underscores uncertainty in France's two-round system, with no-confidence fallout, upcoming prime ministerial appointment, and coalition talks as key catalysts that could separate leaders or consolidate the field.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Prochaine élection présidentielle française » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 36 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Jordan Bardella » à 25%, suivi de « Édouard Philippe » à 21%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 25¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 25% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Prochaine élection présidentielle française » a généré $20.8 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 13, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Prochaine élection présidentielle française », parcourez les 36 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochaine élection présidentielle française » est « Jordan Bardella » à 25%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 25% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Édouard Philippe » à 21%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochaine élection présidentielle française » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.