Attal hints at a pre‑election pact with Édouard Philippe to avoid a LFI‑RN runoff

The May interview suggested strategic coalition‑building but did not materially improve his odds, leaving the

Pravda‑EU reports a new poll with Bardella at 34‑35 % and Le Pen at 32‑33 %, giving the RN a slight boost and nudging the

Marine Le Pen rises to 7%1%

Pravda‑EU reports a new poll with Bardella at 34‑35 % and Le Pen at 32‑33 %, giving the RN a slight boost and nudging the

Mélenchon receives over 150,000 citizen endorsements within 24 hours of candidacy announcement

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 10%1%

The rapid collection of citizen signatures demonstrated strong grassroots support, stabilizing his market

Mélenchon receives 150 000 citizen signatures within 24 hours The Figaro report that more than 150 000 supporters signed his candidacy petition the day after his announcement

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon receives 150 000 citizen signatures within 24 hours The Figaro report that more than 150 000 supporters signed his candidacy petition the day after his announcement boosted his visibility and pushed his.

Post‑announcement media surge shows Mélenchon leading left‑wing polls at 12‑13 % – The day after his announcement, poll aggregators placed him at 12‑13 %, reinforcing the

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 9%3%

Post‑announcement media surge shows Mélenchon leading left‑wing polls at 12‑13 % – The day after his announcement, poll aggregators placed him at 12‑13 %, reinforcing the

Mélenchon officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on TF1, reviving his base and nudging his market

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on TF1, reviving his base and nudging his market

Mélenchon officially announces his fourth run for the 2027 presidency – Reuters, Politico and The Guardian reported his May 3 2026 declaration, which revived his campaign momentum

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon officially announces his fourth run for the 2027 presidency – Reuters, Politico and The Guardian reported his May 3 2026 declaration, which revived his campaign momentum and pushed the market

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announces his 2027 presidential candidacy

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 10%1%

Mélenchon declared his fourth presidential run, emphasizing urgency due to international conflicts, which solidified his position but also highlighted divisions within the left and among voters.

New Odoxa poll shows Bardella back at ~35 % first‑round support, reviving optimism ahead of the election

Jordan Bardella rises to 23%2%

New Odoxa poll shows Bardella back at ~35 % first‑round support, reviving optimism ahead of the election

Mélenchon’s May 1 rally in Paris draws low turnout and criticism for attacking TotalEnergies, contributing to a slide back to 9 %

Mélenchon’s May 1 rally in Paris draws low turnout and criticism for attacking TotalEnergies, contributing to a slide back to 9 %

A follow‑up poll shows Bardella slipping to 30 % after a Philippe‑runoff scenario, reinforcing Philippe’s second‑round advantage and pushing the

A follow‑up poll shows Bardella slipping to 30 % after a Philippe‑runoff scenario, reinforcing Philippe’s second‑round advantage and pushing the

Figaro notes that, despite leaving LR, Lisnard continues to push for a “grand primary” and vows to win the presidency, but the lack of broad right‑wing support keeps his odds low

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Figaro notes that, despite leaving LR, Lisnard continues to push for a “grand primary” and vows to win the presidency, but the lack of broad right‑wing support keeps his odds low

New Verian survey after the municipal elections indicates a slight dip in RN enthusiasm, with Le Pen’s standing slipping modestly

Marine Le Pen rises to 7%1%

New Verian survey after the municipal elections indicates a slight dip in RN enthusiasm, with Le Pen’s standing slipping modestly

Retailleau launches his campaign in Toulouse with a focus on security and conservative policies, attempting to consolidate right-wing voters but facing a crowded field and

Retailleau launches his campaign in Toulouse with a focus on security and conservative policies, attempting to consolidate right-wing voters but facing a crowded field and competition from other right candidates

Continued legal and political challenges for Marine Le Pen reduce her chances in 2027 election, with Bardella favored as RN candidate

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%1%

Ongoing judicial issues and Bardella's ascendancy solidify market pessimism about Le Pen's electoral prospects.

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing her odds down to a new low (no change, but confirms the low level).

On RMC’s “Grandes Gueules”, Lisnard unveils his presidential programme, emphasizing liberal reforms and a “big open primary”, boosting confidence in his campaign

David Lisnard rises to 6%2%

On RMC’s “Grandes Gueules”, Lisnard unveils his presidential programme, emphasizing liberal reforms and a “big open primary”, boosting confidence in his campaign

Lisnard appears on France 2’s “20 heures” to confirm an independent presidential run – The televised announcement of his independent candidacy sparked a brief rally, lifting his

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Lisnard appears on France 2’s “20 heures” to confirm an independent presidential run – The televised announcement of his independent candidacy sparked a brief rally, lifting his odds back into the mid‑single digits.

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party

Bruno Retailleau rises to 4%1%

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party tensions and skepticism about his electability

Bruno Retailleau officially nominated as The Republicans’ candidate for 2027 presidential election

David Lisnard dips to 2%4%

The formal nomination of Retailleau consolidates the party’s choice, marginalizing Lisnard’s independent bid and leading to a significant market

Republicans officially endorse Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate – The party’s choice of Retailleau over an open primary further diminished Lisnard’s chances,

David Lisnard dips to 2%2%

Republicans officially endorse Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate – The party’s choice of Retailleau over an open primary further diminished Lisnard’s chances, pushing his odds lower.

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” campaign in Lyon, emphasizing identity politics to counter the far‑right, generating a modest rally in his odds

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” campaign in Lyon, emphasizing identity politics to counter the far‑right, generating a modest rally in his odds

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%4%

Guardian editorial notes that Le Pen remains ineligible unless a July appeal overturns her ban, but polls still give the RN a sizeable lead, causing a modest rebound in her odds

He holds a large internal meeting in Reims with 800‑900 party cadres, signalling the start of a national “tour de France” and lifting the

Édouard Philippe jumps to 24%6%

He holds a large internal meeting in Reims with 800‑900 party cadres, signalling the start of a national “tour de France” and lifting the

Le Monde reports that Lisnard’s liberal platform is struggling to gain traction within the right‑wing camp, underscoring the difficulty of his candidacy and prompting a sell‑off

David Lisnard dips to 2%3%

Le Monde reports that Lisnard’s liberal platform is struggling to gain traction within the right‑wing camp, underscoring the difficulty of his candidacy and prompting a sell‑off

Lisnard’s poll numbers dip after internal LR backlash A week after his departure, a poll released by a right‑wing think‑tank showed his support slipping, prompting a quick

David Lisnard dips to 5%3%

Lisnard’s poll numbers dip after internal LR backlash A week after his departure, a poll released by a right‑wing think‑tank showed his support slipping, prompting a quick correction in the market

Philippe publicly rejects a right‑wing primary and confirms his independent run, clarifying his campaign strategy and temporarily dampening momentum

Édouard Philippe dips to 18%4%

Philippe publicly rejects a right‑wing primary and confirms his independent run, clarifying his campaign strategy and temporarily dampening momentum

David Lisnard unveils presidential program on RMC emphasizing liberal reforms and open primary

David Lisnard rises to 6%3%

Lisnard’s media appearance presenting a clear platform and call for a broad primary temporarily rallies market interest, reflecting hopes for a revitalized campaign.

Lisnard’s candidacy gains momentum as he launches “Nouvelle Énergie” campaign Following the official launch of his movement and a televised interview, analysts noted a surge in

David Lisnard rises to 8%2%

Lisnard’s candidacy gains momentum as he launches “Nouvelle Énergie” campaign Following the official launch of his movement and a televised interview, analysts noted a surge in his visibility, pushing the market

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited

Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%2%

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited broader appeal despite party endorsement

A Toluna‑Harris poll released in early April shows Le Pen at 32‑33 % behind Bardella, sparking a modest

Marine Le Pen rises to 11%3%

A Toluna‑Harris poll released in early April shows Le Pen at 32‑33 % behind Bardella, sparking a modest

Poll dip to 19 % after a series of negative media reports on Bardella’s past employment allegations (lowest point recorded)

Jordan Bardella rises to 21%2%

Poll dip to 19 % after a series of negative media reports on Bardella’s past employment allegations (lowest point recorded)

Lisnard officially announces his presidential bid and formally leaves LR He delivered his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau and declared his independent run, a

David Lisnard rises to 6%2%

Lisnard officially announces his presidential bid and formally leaves LR He delivered his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau and declared his independent run, a move reported by RTL and 20 minutes, which lifted his market odds after a period of stagnation.

Lisnard formally hands in his resignation letter to LR leader Bruno Retailleau and confirms his presidential run on France 2, cementing his break from the party

David Lisnard rises to 5%1%

Lisnard formally hands in his resignation letter to LR leader Bruno Retailleau and confirms his presidential run on France 2, cementing his break from the party

An Elabe poll for La Tribune Dimanche places Philippe at 20.5 %‑25.5 % in the first round, the highest among centrist candidates, sparking the market’s biggest single‑day rise (+8

Édouard Philippe jumps to 22%8%

An Elabe poll for La Tribune Dimanche places Philippe at 20.5 %‑25.5 % in the first round, the highest among centrist candidates, sparking the market’s biggest single‑day rise (+8 points)

Lisnard officially quits Les Républicains on France 2’s “20 heures” and confirms his independent candidacy for 2027, sparking a short‑term rally in his market odds

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Lisnard officially quits Les Républicains on France 2’s “20 heures” and confirms his independent candidacy for 2027, sparking a short‑term rally in his market odds

National Rally leadership consolidates around Jordan Bardella as Marine Le Pen's legal troubles continue

Marine Le Pen rises to 11%4%

Bardella's rising prominence amid Le Pen's uncertain status caused a temporary market uptick.

Municipal elections see the RN win numerous town run‑offs but lose key cities (Marseille, Toulon, Nîmes);

the mixed result lifts Le Pen’s standing ahead of the April 2026 poll

Marine Le Pen's legal appeal trial outcome expected to confirm or lift her five-year ban from public office

Marine Le Pen dips to 7%2%

The approaching verdict intensified doubts about her candidacy, leading to a market dip.

David Lisnard officially quits The Republicans, denouncing a rigged candidate selection process and confirming independent presidential run

David Lisnard dips to 3%3%

Lisnard’s departure from the party amid internal disputes highlights divisions on the right and his outsider status, causing a drop in market support due to reduced party backing.

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, alleging a “rigged” candidacy process – His break with the party removed the institutional backing he needed, causing a sharp drop in his market

David Lisnard drops to 4%8%

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, alleging a “rigged” candidacy process – His break with the party removed the institutional backing he needed, causing a sharp drop in his market probability.

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

Marine Le Pen dips to 10%1%

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows RN strong results, with Le Pen’s party posting its best‑ever first‑round scores, boosting her perceived momentum

David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with over 80% of the vote

David Lisnard rises to 6%3%

His strong local electoral victory demonstrates political strength and boosts his national profile, briefly increasing market confidence in his presidential prospects.

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows the RN winning numerous town run‑offs, boosting Le Pen’s perceived momentum ahead of the presidential race

Marine Le Pen dips to 8%1%

First round of the 2026 municipal elections shows the RN winning numerous town run‑offs, boosting Le Pen’s perceived momentum ahead of the presidential race

Le Monde reports that Philippe’s “crucial test” in the municipal elections is over and his candidacy is now conditional on his re‑election in Le Havre, prompting traders to

Le Monde reports that Philippe’s “crucial test” in the municipal elections is over and his candidacy is now conditional on his re‑election in Le Havre, prompting traders to reassess his chances

Bardella’s European Parliament funds come under investigation, raising transparency concerns and pulling his

Jordan Bardella dips to 28%3%

Bardella’s European Parliament funds come under investigation, raising transparency concerns and pulling his

Emergence of other strong candidates and left-wing coalition formation overshadow de Villepin’s campaign prospects

Dominique de Villepin dips to 5%2%

The formation of a unified moderate Left coalition and clearer candidacies from other figures reduced market confidence in de Villepin’s chances, contributing to a

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks national controversy linking far‑right violence to LFI‑affiliated groups, damaging Mélenchon’s image

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 6%1%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks national controversy linking far‑right violence to LFI‑affiliated groups, damaging Mélenchon’s image

Marine Le Pen states she will not run if court imposes house arrest, highlighting campaign difficulties under legal restrictions

Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%

Le Pen's conditional withdrawal statement amid legal constraints caused a slight market rebound as uncertainty persisted.

Odoxa‑Mascaret poll shows former PM Édouard Philippe edging Bardella 52‑48 in a second‑round scenario, tightening the race

Jordan Bardella rises to 31%3%

Odoxa‑Mascaret poll shows former PM Édouard Philippe edging Bardella 52‑48 in a second‑round scenario, tightening the race

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks a national controversy linking LFI‑affiliated antifascist groups to the incident, hurting Mélenchon’s standing

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 6%6%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon sparks a national controversy linking LFI‑affiliated antifascist groups to the incident, hurting Mélenchon’s standing

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon fuels controversy The February 2026 killing, linked by investigators to members of the far‑left group Jeune Garde associated

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 6%6%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon fuels controversy The February 2026 killing, linked by investigators to members of the far‑left group Jeune Garde associated with LFI figures, sparked a national debate and hurt Mélenchon’s standing, contributing to the slide from 12 % to 6 % by Apr 5.

New poll shows Mélenchon at 7 % support, his lowest since the start of the year, after a series of municipal setbacks (reported by Le Monde, 15 Feb 2026)

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 7%4%

New poll shows Mélenchon at 7 % support, his lowest since the start of the year, after a series of municipal setbacks (reported by Le Monde, 15 Feb 2026)

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque links far‑left activists to Mélenchon’s movement, hurting his standing – The February 2026 controversy over the Lyon clash, with alleged

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 10%1%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque links far‑left activists to Mélenchon’s movement, hurting his standing – The February 2026 controversy over the Lyon clash, with alleged ties to Mélenchon‑affiliated groups, caused a modest drop in his market probability.

Retailleau publicly declares his presidential candidacy with a serious campaign launch, aiming to create momentum and a surge in polls;

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%6%

this announcement briefly boosted market confidence

Reuters reports that RN‑backed tax‑hike votes in the 2026 budget and a “stall” in poll momentum dampen Le Pen’s surge, causing the

Marine Le Pen drops to 11%10%

Reuters reports that RN‑backed tax‑hike votes in the 2026 budget and a “stall” in poll momentum dampen Le Pen’s surge, causing the

Reuters poll‑of‑polls reports the far‑right at “solid shot at power” and Le Pen’s name among the top two RN candidates, pushing her back into the top‑tier of presidential

Marine Le Pen rises to 11%3%

Reuters poll‑of‑polls reports the far‑right at “solid shot at power” and Le Pen’s name among the top two RN candidates, pushing her back into the top‑tier of presidential contenders

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Marine Le Pen dips to 11%2%

Reuters reports that despite the legal cloud, polls still give Le Pen and Bardella a solid shot at power, reinforcing her base after the appeal started

Polls released by Odoxa‑Mascaret show Philippe leading a potential second‑round against Jordan Bardella (48 %‑52 %), raising expectations of a win over the RN

Édouard Philippe rises to 18%2%

Polls released by Odoxa‑Mascaret show Philippe leading a potential second‑round against Jordan Bardella (48 %‑52 %), raising expectations of a win over the RN

Bardella’s “drones‑only” Ukraine stance aired on BFM TV, drawing criticism from pro‑Ukraine voters and nudging his odds down

Jordan Bardella rises to 28%1%

Bardella’s “drones‑only” Ukraine stance aired on BFM TV, drawing criticism from pro‑Ukraine voters and nudging his odds down

Édouard Philippe wins a decisive first‑round victory in the Le Havre municipal elections, reinforcing his local base and boosting his presidential prospects

Édouard Philippe rises to 16%3%

Édouard Philippe wins a decisive first‑round victory in the Le Havre municipal elections, reinforcing his local base and boosting his presidential prospects

Lisnard publicly declares his presidential bid at a Paris event, calling for an “open right‑wing primary” and outlining his platform

David Lisnard rises to 4%2%

Lisnard publicly declares his presidential bid at a Paris event, calling for an “open right‑wing primary” and outlining his platform

Lisnard confirms he will run for the 2027 presidency At a meeting in Paris’s Maison de la Mutualité, he told supporters he would stand in the 2027 election and called for an open

David Lisnard jumps to 8%6%

Lisnard confirms he will run for the 2027 presidency At a meeting in Paris’s Maison de la Mutualité, he told supporters he would stand in the 2027 election and called for an open primary, reviving media attention on his candidacy.

Bardella demands a “cordon sanitaire” against LFI, positioning himself as a defender of law‑and‑order and attracting right‑leaning voters

Jordan Bardella rises to 27%4%

Bardella demands a “cordon sanitaire” against LFI, positioning himself as a defender of law‑and‑order and attracting right‑leaning voters

Cluster 17’s January 2026 barometer shows Le Pen’s popularity stable at 38 % while Bardella slips slightly, boosting confidence in her staying power

Marine Le Pen jumps to 21%7%

Cluster 17’s January 2026 barometer shows Le Pen’s popularity stable at 38 % while Bardella slips slightly, boosting confidence in her staying power

Bardella loses a defamation lawsuit, with a court confirming Libération’s headline calling him a “ghost parliamentary assistant”

Jordan Bardella drops to 23%8%

Bardella loses a defamation lawsuit, with a court confirming Libération’s headline calling him a “ghost parliamentary assistant”

Court hearing resumes after a brief recess, reinforcing the legal cloud over her candidacy and pushing the

Marine Le Pen rises to 14%4%

Court hearing resumes after a brief recess, reinforcing the legal cloud over her candidacy and pushing the

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Marine Le Pen drops to 13%9%

Court hearing continues; Bardella warns that disqualifying Le Pen would harm French democracy, keeping media focus on her legal fate

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Marine Le Pen surges to 22%15%

Le Pen begins her appeal in Paris, a trial that could lift the ban and restore her candidacy

Le Pen’s appeal against the conviction begins in Paris, temporarily suspending the ban while the case is heard

Marine Le Pen rises to 10%4%

Le Pen’s appeal against the conviction begins in Paris, temporarily suspending the ban while the case is heard

Verian/Le Monde poll shows the RN’s popularity rising despite legal woes, with Le Pen’s personal rating holding steady but party support climbing

Marine Le Pen jumps to 20%10%

Verian/Le Monde poll shows the RN’s popularity rising despite legal woes, with Le Pen’s personal rating holding steady but party support climbing

Le Pen’s appeal trial on her 2025 embezzlement conviction opens, putting her eligibility in doubt and prompting a sharp market dip

Marine Le Pen rises to 10%4%

Le Pen’s appeal trial on her 2025 embezzlement conviction opens, putting her eligibility in doubt and prompting a sharp market dip

Poll reveals RN voters prefer Jordan Bardella over Marine Le Pen as presidential candidate, citing better decision-making and broader appeal

Marine Le Pen drops to 7%7%

This internal party preference shift further weakened Le Pen's perceived electability, reflected in the market decline.

De Villepin’s media appearances and consistent messaging on unity and humanism briefly boost market confidence

Dominique de Villepin rises to 10%4%

His interviews emphasizing a politics of balance and opposition to polarization raised hopes of a credible campaign, reflected in a temporary

Attal announces “renverse la table” pension overhaul for 2027, calling current retirement age “obsolete”

Gabriel Attal jumps to 12%7%

A bold proposal to abolish the legal retirement age and overhaul the labour code generated a brief surge in perceived viability, pushing the

Mélenchon launches “Nouvelle France” identity campaign In a televised rally in Aubervilliers, he unveiled a new “identity‑focused” platform aimed at counter‑ing the far‑right,

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon launches “Nouvelle France” identity campaign In a televised rally in Aubervilliers, he unveiled a new “identity‑focused” platform aimed at counter‑ing the far‑right, which revived enthusiasm among left‑wing voters and lifted his.

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” identity campaign, positioning LFI as the defender of multicultural France and drawing new supporters

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon launches the “Nouvelle France” identity campaign, positioning LFI as the defender of multicultural France and drawing new supporters

Marine Le Pen ruled ineligible for office for five years, removing the main RN rival and clearing the way for Bardella (inferred from the steady decline after the poll peak)

Jordan Bardella dips to 31%3%

Marine Le Pen ruled ineligible for office for five years, removing the main RN rival and clearing the way for Bardella (inferred from the steady decline after the poll peak)

Éric Ciotti wins the internal leadership vote for The Republicans, defeating Retailleau;

this internal party defeat likely weakened Retailleau’s immediate prospects and contributed to early

Dominique de Villepin launches new political party "Humanist France" signaling potential but uncertain presidential ambitions

Dominique de Villepin rises to 4%1%

De Villepin announced the creation of Humanist France, aiming to unite citizens around social justice and republican values, but stopped short of confirming a presidential bid, causing a slight

Egg‑throwing attack on Bardella during a book‑signing in Moissac;

Jordan Bardella jumps to 34%7%

he shrugs it off on X, prompting a surge of sympathy support

Attal’s “XXL” letter to 60 000 firms touts budget wins, attacks RN

Gabriel Attal dips to 5%1%

The mass mailing highlighted legislative successes but also framed the National Rally as anti‑business, a move that failed to revive his standing and saw the

Mélenchon appears at the 12ᵉ Sommet de l’Économie, meeting three CEOs and unveiling a “pacte productif” to court business leaders

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon appears at the 12ᵉ Sommet de l’Économie, meeting three CEOs and unveiling a “pacte productif” to court business leaders

Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading as preferred National Rally candidate over Marine Le Pen for 2027 presidential election

Marine Le Pen dips to 10%4%

A poll revealing Bardella's stronger appeal among RN voters and the public diminished confidence in Le Pen's candidacy.

He publicly declares “no longer anything to do” with Les Républicains on BFMTV, denouncing the party’s “rigged” primary process

David Lisnard dips to 4%1%

He publicly declares “no longer anything to do” with Les Républicains on BFMTV, denouncing the party’s “rigged” primary process

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, denouncing a “rigged” primary selection The Cannes mayor announced on BFMTV that he was leaving the party because the LR bureau had proposed a

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, denouncing a “rigged” primary selection The Cannes mayor announced on BFMTV that he was leaving the party because the LR bureau had proposed a “truqué” (rigged) primary process, dramatically reducing his perceived chances within the traditional right‑wing bloc.

Odoxa poll shows Bardella leading every 2027 presidential scenario, beating all rivals in a hypothetical runoff

Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%

Odoxa poll shows Bardella leading every 2027 presidential scenario, beating all rivals in a hypothetical runoff

Mélenchon promotes a "new France" identity narrative to counter the far right

Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 11%4%

At a meeting in Aubervilliers, Mélenchon emphasized a national narrative focused on diversity and anti-racism, aiming to reclaim identity politics from the far right, which briefly boosted his market support.

Marine Le Pen publicly asserts she "absolutely does not renounce" running in 2027 despite legal hurdles

Marine Le Pen rises to 14%3%

Le Pen's firm statement against withdrawal reassured supporters and briefly boosted her market

Attal sparks retirement‑fund debate on France 2, defending a capital‑based pension model

Gabriel Attal dips to 6%4%

During a televised clash with Sandrine Rousseau, Attal promoted a partially‑capitalised pension reform, drawing criticism and reducing confidence in his electability.

Lisnard officialises his presidential candidacy and quits Les Républicains, announcing he will run as an independent liberal

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

Lisnard officialises his presidential candidacy and quits Les Républicains, announcing he will run as an independent liberal

Attal skips domestic debate to attend Selectour congress in South Africa

Gabriel Attal drops to 10%6%

The Renaissance secretary‑general left the French political arena for a party‑run event abroad, signalling a retreat from the election‑focused spotlight and prompting the market’s first sharp decline.

Bruno Retailleau officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, emphasizing a new path focused on order, prosperity, and French pride;

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%

this formal declaration marked the start of his campaign and clarified his intentions to the market

French Council of State decision pending on Marine Le Pen's political future amid appeal trial for misuse of European Parliament funds

Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%

The Council of State's upcoming ruling could determine Le Pen's eligibility for the 2027 election, creating uncertainty and causing a market drop.

Market reacts sharply to absence of official presidential candidacy announcement by Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%

Despite his popularity, de Villepin did not formally declare a presidential run by mid-November 2025, causing a steep market

Lisnard signals intention to run for the 2027 presidency, saying he will consider a candidacy if the Republicans hold an open primary

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

Lisnard signals intention to run for the 2027 presidency, saying he will consider a candidacy if the Republicans hold an open primary

David Lisnard announces intention to run for 2027 presidential election conditional on a unified centre-right primary

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

Lisnard publicly states his presidential ambitions but conditions his candidacy on a single primary for the entire centre-right, signaling early campaign positioning but limited immediate market confidence.

Mélenchon’s poll share drops to historic lows after a series‑of anti‑establishment remarks – Polls released at the end of November 2025 showed Mélenchon falling to single‑digit

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon’s poll share drops to historic lows after a series‑of anti‑establishment remarks – Polls released at the end of November 2025 showed Mélenchon falling to single‑digit support, the lowest of his recent campaigns, prompting a sharp sell‑off on the market.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon leaves the Socialist Party to form a new movement opposing the right

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 7%11%

Mélenchon and Marc Dolez announced their departure from the Socialist Party to create a new left-wing movement, signaling a break with traditional left politics and causing uncertainty among voters about his electoral prospects.

Mélenchon sparks outrage after calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Vladimir Putin, prompting protests and a dip in his poll numbers

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon sparks outrage after calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Vladimir Putin, prompting protests and a dip in his poll numbers

Mélenchon’s pro‑Russia comments and criticism of Zelensky spark backlash His August 2025 interview in which he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon’s pro‑Russia comments and criticism of Zelensky spark backlash His August 2025 interview in which he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “illegitimate” and defended Vladimir Putin drew widespread condemnation and a dip in his poll numbers, coinciding with the market’s drop from 18 % to 9 % between Nov 14 and Nov 16.

Mélenchon sparks outrage by calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Putin, fueling criticism from left‑wing parties – His August 2025 remarks on the

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 10%1%

Mélenchon sparks outrage by calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Putin, fueling criticism from left‑wing parties – His August 2025 remarks on the Ukraine war drew condemnation from the Socialist Party and Green allies, temporarily halting the

Dominique de Villepin tops French political popularity polls amid renewed public interest

A poll by Ifop-Fiducial showed de Villepin as the most favored French political figure with 51% positive opinion, driven by his firm stances on international issues like the Gaza war. This surge in popularity likely contributed to the initial high market

Lisnard signals he will run for the 2027 presidency if the Republicans hold an open primary – The mayor of Cannes publicly said he would enter the race only under a

David Lisnard drops to 12%5%

Lisnard signals he will run for the 2027 presidency if the Republicans hold an open primary – The mayor of Cannes publicly said he would enter the race only under a single‑candidate primary, raising his profile and prompting an early rise in market odds.