Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and

BSW dips to 0%1%

Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and loss of confidence among members, wiping out the small rally and sending the

Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty

AfD dips to 19%3%

Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty

YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism

AfD jumps to 22%6%

YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism

CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's governing role and causing a peak in market

CDU drops to 59%13%

Source: 2023 Berlin state election aftermath and mayoral approval

CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU dominance in city government

SPD rises to 9%2%

While CDU's confirmation as mayor solidified their control, SPD's slight

BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the

BSW rises to 1%1%

BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the market as the party tried to broaden its appeal, but the effect was short‑lived.

INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp

AfD rises to 19%3%

INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp

INSA national poll shows Grüne at 13%, trailing CDU and AfD but stable

Grüne rises to 18%4%

Stable polling for Grüne nationally, despite trailing, supported a modest

BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, SPD, Linke, and AfD nearly tied at 16% each

Grüne rises to 15%4%

The close polling race in Berlin raised hopes for Grüne’s potential gains, reflected in a

Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony

AfD drops to 8%5%

Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony

AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support

AfD rises to 13%2%

AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support

Civey poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 23%, reinforcing CDU's frontrunner status and supporting market

CDU jumps to 59%5%

Source: Civey Berlin poll March 26, 2026

CDU leads in Baden-Württemberg state election polls, signaling potential gains in 2026 super election year and improving CDU outlook in Berlin market

CDU rises to 60%3%

Source: Flint Global analysis on 2026 elections

Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds

AfD rises to 15%4%

Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds

SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, with CDU leader Kai Wegner favored for mayoral position

SPD dips to 6%1%

The coalition talks suggested SPD would remain junior partner, limiting its chances to lead, reflected in stable but low market

Final results of 2023 repeat Berlin state election published, confirming CDU as largest party and SPD-CDU grand coalition talks begin, boosting CDU prospects

CDU jumps to 63%6%

Source: 2023 Berlin state election results and coalition talks

Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government

AfD rises to 11%4%

Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government

Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner in Berlin with 22%, stabilizing market confidence after earlier losses

CDU jumps to 58%8%

Source: Civey Berlin poll January 23, 2026

SPD suffers historic low results in recent state elections, including Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, fueling concerns about party's electoral prospects

SPD dips to 6%4%

These defeats underscored SPD's declining voter base and contributed to further market

Polls show CDU leading Berlin election at 20%, with AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered around 16%

Grüne jumps to 14%10%

A poll indicating a tight race among four parties including Grüne boosted market optimism for Greens, causing a

PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was

BSW dips to 0%1%

PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was unlikely to clear the 5 % hurdle and driving the

Nationwide poll shows AfD surpassing CDU for the first time, raising concerns about CDU's position and causing a sharp drop in CDU's market

CDU drops to 50%13%

Source: GMS poll December 23, 2025 - January 5, 2026, AfD leads CDU nationally

Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence

AfD rises to 8%2%

Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence

CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election

CDU jumps to 58%8%

CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election

Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party

AfD plunges to 6%44%

Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party

Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip

Linke jumps to 28%6%

Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip

BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was

BSW plunges to 1%49%

BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was approved at a Berlin‑Lichtenberg party congress, signalling a serious entry into the race and prompting an immediate market correction as traders reassessed its realistic chances.

Berlin repeat state election results confirm CDU as clear winner with 28%, SPD and Grüne tied at 18.4%

Grüne plunges to 20%30%

The 2023 repeat election results showed CDU surging to first place, while Grüne tied with SPD at 18.4%, signaling a challenging environment for Greens to lead in 2026 and triggering a sharp

Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20.3%, SPD trailing at 15.2%, signaling a loss of majority for the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition

SPD plunges to 9%41%

The significant polling gap indicated SPD's weakening position, driving down market confidence in SPD winning the most seats.

INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win

Linke plunges to 22%28%

INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win

AfD selects Kristin Brinker as top candidate for Berlin state election, emphasizing stricter migration controls

Grüne dips to 2%2%

AfD’s consolidation around a strong candidate increased competition on the right, pressuring Grüne’s prospects and market

SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing on housing and social services to regain voter support

SPD plunges to 12%38%

This announcement marked the start of SPD's campaign efforts but came amid already declining public support, reflected in the sharp

SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for Berlin election, emphasizing housing and social services

Grüne drops to 4%10%

SPD’s strong candidate announcement and campaign focus likely drew attention away from Grüne, contributing to a dip in their market

Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %

Linke jumps to 25%12%

Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %

Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the

Linke rises to 13%3%

Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the

Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support

Linke dips to 10%1%

Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support

Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the

Linke drops to 11%8%

Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the

Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism

Linke jumps to 38%10%

Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism

Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off

Linke drops to 19%11%

Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off

Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally

Linke drops to 30%6%

Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally

Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and

Linke dips to 36%2%

Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and pushing the market to a new high