Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way race, with CDU at 19% slightly ahead of Grüne, AfD, and Linke at 18% each, and SPD at 14%, driving trader consensus favoring CDU as winner at 36.5% implied probability amid vote fragmentation under proportional representation. CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner provides a narrow edge despite declining support from low Senat satisfaction and the April resignation of Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson over a funding scandal, boosting challengers like AfD to a Berlin record. Grüne and Linke gains reflect potential red-red-green coalition dynamics, while SPD slumps in the black-red governing coalition, heightening uncertainty ahead of coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way race, with CDU at 19% slightly ahead of Grüne, AfD, and Linke at 18% each, and SPD at 14%, driving trader consensus favoring CDU as winner at 36.5% implied probability amid vote fragmentation under proportional representation. CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner provides a narrow edge despite declining support from low Senat satisfaction and the April resignation of Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson over a funding scandal, boosting challengers like AfD to a Berlin record. Grüne and Linke gains reflect potential red-red-green coalition dynamics, while SPD slumps in the black-red governing coalition, heightening uncertainty ahead of coalition negotiations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 6 2026
Latest polls show SPD at around 14-16% in Berlin, still behind CDU and other parties, with no clear path to winning the most seats
SPD dips to 9%3%
Continued polling data confirmed SPD's weak position, keeping market
May 4 2026
Latest INSA poll confirms AfD lead nationally, CDU second, Grüne steady at 13%
Grüne rises to 20%3%
Consistent polling data showing Grüne holding steady near 13% nationally helped sustain a gradual
May 3 2026
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and
BSW dips to 0%1%
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and loss of confidence among members, wiping out the small rally and sending the
May 1 2026
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
AfD dips to 19%3%
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
Apr 28 2026
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
AfD jumps to 22%6%
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
Apr 28 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's governing role and causing a peak in market
CDU drops to 59%13%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election aftermath and mayoral approval
Apr 27 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU dominance in city government
SPD rises to 9%2%
While CDU's confirmation as mayor solidified their control, SPD's slight
Apr 25 2026
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the
BSW rises to 1%1%
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the market as the party tried to broaden its appeal, but the effect was short‑lived.
Apr 25 2026
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
AfD rises to 19%3%
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
Apr 24 2026
INSA national poll shows Grüne at 13%, trailing CDU and AfD but stable
Grüne rises to 18%4%
Stable polling for Grüne nationally, despite trailing, supported a modest
Apr 18 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, SPD, Linke, and AfD nearly tied at 16% each
Grüne rises to 15%4%
The close polling race in Berlin raised hopes for Grüne’s potential gains, reflected in a
Mar 30 2026
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
AfD drops to 8%5%
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
Mar 28 2026
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
AfD rises to 13%2%
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 23%, reinforcing CDU's frontrunner status and supporting market
CDU jumps to 59%5%
Source: Civey Berlin poll March 26, 2026
Mar 8 2026
CDU leads in Baden-Württemberg state election polls, signaling potential gains in 2026 super election year and improving CDU outlook in Berlin market
CDU rises to 60%3%
Source: Flint Global analysis on 2026 elections
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
AfD rises to 15%4%
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
Mar 1 2026
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, with CDU leader Kai Wegner favored for mayoral position
SPD dips to 6%1%
The coalition talks suggested SPD would remain junior partner, limiting its chances to lead, reflected in stable but low market
Feb 27 2026
Final results of 2023 repeat Berlin state election published, confirming CDU as largest party and SPD-CDU grand coalition talks begin, boosting CDU prospects
CDU jumps to 63%6%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election results and coalition talks
Feb 27 2026
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
AfD rises to 11%4%
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner in Berlin with 22%, stabilizing market confidence after earlier losses
CDU jumps to 58%8%
Source: Civey Berlin poll January 23, 2026
Jan 15 2026
SPD suffers historic low results in recent state elections, including Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, fueling concerns about party's electoral prospects
SPD dips to 6%4%
These defeats underscored SPD's declining voter base and contributed to further market
Jan 15 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election at 20%, with AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered around 16%
Grüne jumps to 14%10%
A poll indicating a tight race among four parties including Grüne boosted market optimism for Greens, causing a
Jan 10 2026
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was
BSW dips to 0%1%
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was unlikely to clear the 5 % hurdle and driving the
Jan 7 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD surpassing CDU for the first time, raising concerns about CDU's position and causing a sharp drop in CDU's market
CDU drops to 50%13%
Source: GMS poll December 23, 2025 - January 5, 2026, AfD leads CDU nationally
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
AfD rises to 8%2%
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
Dec 4 2025
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
CDU jumps to 58%8%
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
Dec 4 2025
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
Dec 3 2025
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Linke jumps to 28%6%
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Dec 2 2025
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was
BSW plunges to 1%49%
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was approved at a Berlin‑Lichtenberg party congress, signalling a serious entry into the race and prompting an immediate market correction as traders reassessed its realistic chances.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin repeat state election results confirm CDU as clear winner with 28%, SPD and Grüne tied at 18.4%
Grüne plunges to 20%30%
The 2023 repeat election results showed CDU surging to first place, while Grüne tied with SPD at 18.4%, signaling a challenging environment for Greens to lead in 2026 and triggering a sharp
Dec 2 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20.3%, SPD trailing at 15.2%, signaling a loss of majority for the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition
SPD plunges to 9%41%
The significant polling gap indicated SPD's weakening position, driving down market confidence in SPD winning the most seats.
Dec 1 2025
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Linke plunges to 22%28%
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Oct 11 2025
AfD selects Kristin Brinker as top candidate for Berlin state election, emphasizing stricter migration controls
Grüne dips to 2%2%
AfD’s consolidation around a strong candidate increased competition on the right, pressuring Grüne’s prospects and market
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing on housing and social services to regain voter support
SPD plunges to 12%38%
This announcement marked the start of SPD's campaign efforts but came amid already declining public support, reflected in the sharp
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for Berlin election, emphasizing housing and social services
Grüne drops to 4%10%
SPD’s strong candidate announcement and campaign focus likely drew attention away from Grüne, contributing to a dip in their market
May 1 2025
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Linke jumps to 25%12%
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Apr 9 2025
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Linke rises to 13%3%
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Apr 2 2025
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Linke dips to 10%1%
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Mar 9 2025
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Linke drops to 11%8%
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Feb 24 2025
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Linke jumps to 38%10%
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Feb 13 2025
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Linke drops to 19%11%
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Feb 8 2025
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Linke drops to 30%6%
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Jan 30 2025
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and
Linke dips to 36%2%
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and pushing the market to a new high
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way race, with CDU at 19% slightly ahead of Grüne, AfD, and Linke at 18% each, and SPD at 14%, driving trader consensus favoring CDU as winner at 36.5% implied probability amid vote fragmentation under proportional representation. CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner provides a narrow edge despite declining support from low Senat satisfaction and the April resignation of Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson over a funding scandal, boosting challengers like AfD to a Berlin record. Grüne and Linke gains reflect potential red-red-green coalition dynamics, while SPD slumps in the black-red governing coalition, heightening uncertainty ahead of coalition negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin's September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a tight four-way race, with CDU at 19% slightly ahead of Grüne, AfD, and Linke at 18% each, and SPD at 14%, driving trader consensus favoring CDU as winner at 36.5% implied probability amid vote fragmentation under proportional representation. CDU's incumbency under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner provides a narrow edge despite declining support from low Senat satisfaction and the April resignation of Culture Senator Sarah Wedl-Wilson over a funding scandal, boosting challengers like AfD to a Berlin record. Grüne and Linke gains reflect potential red-red-green coalition dynamics, while SPD slumps in the black-red governing coalition, heightening uncertainty ahead of coalition negotiations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 6 2026
Latest polls show SPD at around 14-16% in Berlin, still behind CDU and other parties, with no clear path to winning the most seats
SPD dips to 9%3%
Continued polling data confirmed SPD's weak position, keeping market
May 4 2026
Latest INSA poll confirms AfD lead nationally, CDU second, Grüne steady at 13%
Grüne rises to 20%3%
Consistent polling data showing Grüne holding steady near 13% nationally helped sustain a gradual
May 3 2026
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and
BSW dips to 0%1%
Spiegel reports a “BSW crisis” with accusations of internal “culture of devaluation” and leadership disputes – A major investigative piece described a deepening internal rift and loss of confidence among members, wiping out the small rally and sending the
May 1 2026
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
AfD dips to 19%3%
Reports emerge of secret Saxony decree revoking firearms licenses of AfD supporters, sparking controversy and parliamentary inquiry, creating uncertainty
Apr 28 2026
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
AfD jumps to 22%6%
YouGov poll confirms AfD as most popular party with 27%, reflecting peak market optimism
Apr 28 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU's governing role and causing a peak in market
CDU drops to 59%13%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election aftermath and mayoral approval
Apr 27 2026
CDU leader Kai Wegner approved as Berlin mayor after three rounds of voting, confirming CDU dominance in city government
SPD rises to 9%2%
While CDU's confirmation as mayor solidified their control, SPD's slight
Apr 25 2026
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the
BSW rises to 1%1%
BSW’s Berlin party congress releases detailed platform, emphasizing a €15 minimum wage and “tax‑free” pension – The programme rollout generated a brief, modest uptick in the market as the party tried to broaden its appeal, but the effect was short‑lived.
Apr 25 2026
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
AfD rises to 19%3%
INSA poll reports AfD at record 28% nationwide, the highest ever, causing a sharp
Apr 24 2026
INSA national poll shows Grüne at 13%, trailing CDU and AfD but stable
Grüne rises to 18%4%
Stable polling for Grüne nationally, despite trailing, supported a modest
Apr 18 2026
BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, SPD, Linke, and AfD nearly tied at 16% each
Grüne rises to 15%4%
The close polling race in Berlin raised hopes for Grüne’s potential gains, reflected in a
Mar 30 2026
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
AfD drops to 8%5%
Market reacts negatively as AfD faces intensified scrutiny and legal challenges, including parliamentary inquiries into secret gun license revocations for AfD supporters in Saxony
Mar 28 2026
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
AfD rises to 13%2%
AfD reaches peak polling at 13% in Berlin, coinciding with national polls showing surging support
Mar 26 2026
Civey poll shows CDU leading Berlin election with 23%, reinforcing CDU's frontrunner status and supporting market
CDU jumps to 59%5%
Source: Civey Berlin poll March 26, 2026
Mar 8 2026
CDU leads in Baden-Württemberg state election polls, signaling potential gains in 2026 super election year and improving CDU outlook in Berlin market
CDU rises to 60%3%
Source: Flint Global analysis on 2026 elections
Mar 8 2026
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
AfD rises to 15%4%
Baden-Württemberg state election polls show AfD in second place with 21%, signaling expanding influence beyond traditional strongholds
Mar 1 2026
SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin, with CDU leader Kai Wegner favored for mayoral position
SPD dips to 6%1%
The coalition talks suggested SPD would remain junior partner, limiting its chances to lead, reflected in stable but low market
Feb 27 2026
Final results of 2023 repeat Berlin state election published, confirming CDU as largest party and SPD-CDU grand coalition talks begin, boosting CDU prospects
CDU jumps to 63%6%
Source: 2023 Berlin state election results and coalition talks
Feb 27 2026
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
AfD rises to 11%4%
Polls indicate AfD support rising to 11%, reflecting growing voter base amid dissatisfaction with government
Jan 23 2026
Civey poll confirms CDU as frontrunner in Berlin with 22%, stabilizing market confidence after earlier losses
CDU jumps to 58%8%
Source: Civey Berlin poll January 23, 2026
Jan 15 2026
SPD suffers historic low results in recent state elections, including Berlin and Rhineland-Palatinate, fueling concerns about party's electoral prospects
SPD dips to 6%4%
These defeats underscored SPD's declining voter base and contributed to further market
Jan 15 2026
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election at 20%, with AfD, SPD, Grüne, and Linke clustered around 16%
Grüne jumps to 14%10%
A poll indicating a tight race among four parties including Grüne boosted market optimism for Greens, causing a
Jan 10 2026
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was
BSW dips to 0%1%
PolitPro poll shows BSW at 3 % support, far below the threshold for a seat – The latest poll for Berlin listed BSW with only 3 % of the vote, confirming that the party was unlikely to clear the 5 % hurdle and driving the
Jan 7 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD surpassing CDU for the first time, raising concerns about CDU's position and causing a sharp drop in CDU's market
CDU drops to 50%13%
Source: GMS poll December 23, 2025 - January 5, 2026, AfD leads CDU nationally
Jan 5 2026
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
AfD rises to 8%2%
Nationwide poll shows AfD leading with 27%, marking record high support and widening gap over CDU, boosting market confidence
Dec 4 2025
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
CDU jumps to 58%8%
CDU gains momentum after strong polling results in late 2025, showing increased voter support in Berlin ahead of the 2026 election
Dec 4 2025
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
AfD plunges to 6%44%
Higher court rejects AfD's appeal against "right-wing extremist" designation of its Saxony branch, reinforcing legal pressure on the party
Dec 3 2025
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Linke jumps to 28%6%
Infratest dimap poll confirms Linke still lagging at 10 % in Berlin, reinforcing the December‑1 dip
Dec 2 2025
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was
BSW plunges to 1%49%
BSW adopts its Berlin election programme and names Alexander King as lead candidate – The party’s first formal programme for the September 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election was approved at a Berlin‑Lichtenberg party congress, signalling a serious entry into the race and prompting an immediate market correction as traders reassessed its realistic chances.
Dec 2 2025
Berlin repeat state election results confirm CDU as clear winner with 28%, SPD and Grüne tied at 18.4%
Grüne plunges to 20%30%
The 2023 repeat election results showed CDU surging to first place, while Grüne tied with SPD at 18.4%, signaling a challenging environment for Greens to lead in 2026 and triggering a sharp
Dec 2 2025
Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20.3%, SPD trailing at 15.2%, signaling a loss of majority for the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition
SPD plunges to 9%41%
The significant polling gap indicated SPD's weakening position, driving down market confidence in SPD winning the most seats.
Dec 1 2025
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Linke plunges to 22%28%
INSA poll shows Die Linke at only 10.5 % in the Berlin‑state election forecast, far below the 20 %‑plus level needed to win
Oct 11 2025
AfD selects Kristin Brinker as top candidate for Berlin state election, emphasizing stricter migration controls
Grüne dips to 2%2%
AfD’s consolidation around a strong candidate increased competition on the right, pressuring Grüne’s prospects and market
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing on housing and social services to regain voter support
SPD plunges to 12%38%
This announcement marked the start of SPD's campaign efforts but came amid already declining public support, reflected in the sharp
Sep 1 2025
SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate for Berlin election, emphasizing housing and social services
Grüne drops to 4%10%
SPD’s strong candidate announcement and campaign focus likely drew attention away from Grüne, contributing to a dip in their market
May 1 2025
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Linke jumps to 25%12%
Late‑April poll by Statista shows Linke at 12 % in Berlin, the highest since the February surge, lifting the market back toward 25 %
Apr 9 2025
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Linke rises to 13%3%
Linke publishes a revised manifesto emphasizing affordable housing and social housing construction, halting the decline and nudging the
Apr 2 2025
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Linke dips to 10%1%
Wegner’s new housing plan focuses on rent‑control and new construction while blaming Linke for worsening the crisis, further eroding Linke’s support
Mar 9 2025
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Linke drops to 11%8%
Exit‑poll data reveal that Linke is strongest only among voters aged 18‑24 (25 % share), highlighting limited appeal beyond youth and driving the
Feb 24 2025
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Linke jumps to 38%10%
Linke wins the Berlin‑city vote in the 2025 Bundestag election with 19.9 % of second votes, its best result ever in the capital, sparking a surge in state‑election optimism
Feb 13 2025
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Linke drops to 19%11%
Berlin mayor Kai Wegner rejects Linke’s expropriation proposal and accuses the party of radicalism, causing a rapid sell‑off
Feb 8 2025
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Linke drops to 30%6%
Follow‑up poll (regional newspaper) shows Linke jumping to 16.9 % in Berlin, the highest regional figure, prompting a short‑term rally
Jan 30 2025
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and
Linke dips to 36%2%
Linke’s Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp delivers a bold “We will put the ownership question on the agenda” speech at the party’s Berlin congress, raising the party’s profile and pushing the market to a new high
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« Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « CDU » à 37%, suivi de « Les Verts » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 37¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 37% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » a généré $2.6 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 2, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » est « CDU » à 37%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 37% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Les Verts » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $2.6 million échangés sur « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 37¢ pour « CDU » sur le marché « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 37% que « CDU » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 37¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 63¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Sep 20, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin » a une discussion croissante de 8 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Vainqueur des élections de l'État de Berlin ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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