Market icon
Monde·Brésil

Élection présidentielle brésilienne

Market icon
Monde·Brésil

Élection présidentielle brésilienne

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.3%

Fernando Haddad 6.1%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Polymarket

$40,365,032 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.3%

Fernando Haddad 6.1%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Polymarket

$40,365,032 Vol.

Market icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,329,184 Vol.

43%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,815,607 Vol.

37%

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Fernando Haddad

$3,039,576 Vol.

6%

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Renan Santos

$3,644,242 Vol.

6%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$1,324,266 Vol.

2%

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Romeu Zema

$267,973 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,490,578 Vol.

1%

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Camilo Santana

$621,812 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$314,847 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$6,009,860 Vol.

<1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,009,817 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$1,104,987 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Ratinho Júnior

$5,158,056 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$5,241,982 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent late-March polls, including Paraná Pesquisas and BTG Pactual/Nexus, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim margins of 3-6 points in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, while simulated runoffs are tied or slightly favor Flávio, reflecting trader consensus on a razor-thin race. Flávio's surge stems from his father Jair Bolsonaro's December endorsement—despite the ex-president's ineligibility until 2030—and Lula's narrowing leads amid slipping approval ratings and economic pressures. The polarized contest between PT center-left and PL right-wing bases, with no viable third options, keeps odds tight; party conventions in coming months, economic indicators, or scandals could tip the balance ahead of the October 4 first round and potential October 25 runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$40,365,032
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent late-March polls, including Paraná Pesquisas and BTG Pactual/Nexus, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim margins of 3-6 points in first-round voting intentions around 38-46% each, while simulated runoffs are tied or slightly favor Flávio, reflecting trader consensus on a razor-thin race. Flávio's surge stems from his father Jair Bolsonaro's December endorsement—despite the ex-president's ineligibility until 2030—and Lula's narrowing leads amid slipping approval ratings and economic pressures. The polarized contest between PT center-left and PL right-wing bases, with no viable third options, keeps odds tight; party conventions in coming months, economic indicators, or scandals could tip the balance ahead of the October 4 first round and potential October 25 runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$40,365,032
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Élection présidentielle brésilienne » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 14 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 43%, suivi de « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 37%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 43¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Élection présidentielle brésilienne » a généré $40.4 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 18, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Élection présidentielle brésilienne », parcourez les 14 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection présidentielle brésilienne » est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 43%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 37%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection présidentielle brésilienne » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.