Skip to main content
Market icon
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

Market icon
Politique·Brésil

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place

Flávio Bolsonaro 66%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%

Renan Santos 6.8%

Fernando Haddad 6.2%

Polymarket

$3,041,104 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 66%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%

Renan Santos 6.8%

Fernando Haddad 6.2%

Polymarket

$3,041,104 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Flávio Bolsonaro

$30,007 Vol.

66%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$34,707 Vol.

15%

Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Renan Santos

$970,242 Vol.

7%

Fernando Haddad terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Fernando Haddad

$634,834 Vol.

6%

Camilo Santana terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Camilo Santana

$41,578 Vol.

2%

Ronaldo Caiado finira-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Ronaldo Caiado

$271,772 Vol.

2%

Romeu Zema terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Romeu Zema

$154,547 Vol.

2%

Jair Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Jair Bolsonaro

$57,361 Vol.

1%

Geraldo Alckmin finira-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Geraldo Alckmin

$77,837 Vol.

1%

Aldo Rebelo terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Aldo Rebelo

$13,840 Vol.

<1%

Michelle Bolsonaro terminera-t-elle à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Michelle Bolsonaro

$36,060 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Ratinho Júnior

$596,705 Vol.

<1%

Tarcisio de Freitas terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$84,471 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$23,381 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Leite terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ? icon

Eduardo Leite

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls, including Quaest (April 9-13), Futura (April 7-11), and Datafolha (April 7-9), position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in first-round voting intentions at 37-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as runner-up at 30-37%, well ahead of challengers like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema under 7%. This reflects trader consensus on Polymarket, implying a 65.5% probability for Flávio Bolsonaro in second place and just 14.5% for Lula, signaling expectations of a polarized race likely heading to a runoff on October 25 absent a first-round majority on October 4. Lula's approval has slipped to 44% amid economic headwinds, while Flávio has consolidated right-wing support since his December 2025 candidacy launch endorsed by his father, Jair Bolsonaro. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate adds continuity to his ticket.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,041,104
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls, including Quaest (April 9-13), Futura (April 7-11), and Datafolha (April 7-9), position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in first-round voting intentions at 37-40%, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as runner-up at 30-37%, well ahead of challengers like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema under 7%. This reflects trader consensus on Polymarket, implying a 65.5% probability for Flávio Bolsonaro in second place and just 14.5% for Lula, signaling expectations of a polarized race likely heading to a runoff on October 25 absent a first-round majority on October 4. Lula's approval has slipped to 44% amid economic headwinds, while Flávio has consolidated right-wing support since his December 2025 candidacy launch endorsed by his father, Jair Bolsonaro. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate adds continuity to his ticket.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,041,104
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 15 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 66%, suivi de « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 66¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 66% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » a généré $3 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 11, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place », parcourez les 15 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » est « Flávio Bolsonaro » à 66%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 66% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 14%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 2e place » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.