Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 COPOM meeting, driven by the central bank's March 17-18 initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—its first in two years—amid cooling headline IPCA inflation to 3.81% year-over-year in February. Dovish minutes released March 24 reaffirmed forward cuts unless geopolitical oil shocks escalate, outweighing recent Focus survey revisions lifting 2026 inflation forecasts to 4.31% and end-year Selic end-2026 estimates to 12.5%. No-change odds at 13% reflect caution on sticky core inflation and Middle East tensions, while hikes remain negligible at 0.9%; traders eye pending March IPCA data for potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourBaisse 85%
Pas de changement 13%
Augmentation <1%
$192,668 Vol.
$192,668 Vol.
Augmentation
1%
Pas de changement
13%
Baisse
85%
Baisse 85%
Pas de changement 13%
Augmentation <1%
$192,668 Vol.
$192,668 Vol.
Augmentation
1%
Pas de changement
13%
Baisse
85%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its April 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for April 27-28, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) Selic rate decrease at the April 28-29 COPOM meeting, driven by the central bank's March 17-18 initiation of an easing cycle with a unanimous 25 basis point cut to 14.75%—its first in two years—amid cooling headline IPCA inflation to 3.81% year-over-year in February. Dovish minutes released March 24 reaffirmed forward cuts unless geopolitical oil shocks escalate, outweighing recent Focus survey revisions lifting 2026 inflation forecasts to 4.31% and end-year Selic end-2026 estimates to 12.5%. No-change odds at 13% reflect caution on sticky core inflation and Middle East tensions, while hikes remain negligible at 0.9%; traders eye pending March IPCA data for potential shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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