Trader consensus heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 3 at 77% implied probability, driven by recent daily volumes consistently below this threshold amid spring break tailwinds—March 27 logged 2.74 million, March 26 hit 2.72 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year dip despite record spring projections averaging 2.8 million daily through April. Staffing shortages from the ongoing government shutdown have fueled long lines and cancellations, tempering demand, while April 3 falls on a Thursday just before Easter Sunday (April 5), typically avoiding peak Friday-Sunday surges that have occasionally topped 3 million historically. The 18.5% on 3.0-3.2 million reflects potential pre-holiday uptick, but higher bins remain marginal absent exceptional momentum; watch March 30-31 weekend data for final trajectory shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNumber of TSA Passengers April 3?
Number of TSA Passengers April 3?
<3.0M 85%
3.0M-3.2M 18%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 avr. 2026
<3.0M
85%
3.0M-3.2M
18%
3.2M-3.4M
1%
3.4M-3.6M
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
<1%
>3.8M
<1%
<3.0M 85%
3.0M-3.2M 18%
3.2M-3.4M <1%
3.4M-3.6M <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 avr. 2026
<3.0M
$67 Vol.
85%
3.0M-3.2M
$10 Vol.
18%
3.2M-3.4M
$408 Vol.
1%
3.4M-3.6M
$328 Vol.
<1%
3.6M-3.8M
$343 Vol.
<1%
>3.8M
$551 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 3 at 77% implied probability, driven by recent daily volumes consistently below this threshold amid spring break tailwinds—March 27 logged 2.74 million, March 26 hit 2.72 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year dip despite record spring projections averaging 2.8 million daily through April. Staffing shortages from the ongoing government shutdown have fueled long lines and cancellations, tempering demand, while April 3 falls on a Thursday just before Easter Sunday (April 5), typically avoiding peak Friday-Sunday surges that have occasionally topped 3 million historically. The 18.5% on 3.0-3.2 million reflects potential pre-holiday uptick, but higher bins remain marginal absent exceptional momentum; watch March 30-31 weekend data for final trajectory shifts.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volume
$1,707Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 3 at 77% implied probability, driven by recent daily volumes consistently below this threshold amid spring break tailwinds—March 27 logged 2.74 million, March 26 hit 2.72 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year dip despite record spring projections averaging 2.8 million daily through April. Staffing shortages from the ongoing government shutdown have fueled long lines and cancellations, tempering demand, while April 3 falls on a Thursday just before Easter Sunday (April 5), typically avoiding peak Friday-Sunday surges that have occasionally topped 3 million historically. The 18.5% on 3.0-3.2 million reflects potential pre-holiday uptick, but higher bins remain marginal absent exceptional momentum; watch March 30-31 weekend data for final trajectory shifts.
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on April 3, 2026.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Volume
$1,707Date de fin
3 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 30, 2026, 6:11 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors under 3.0 million TSA checkpoint passengers on April 3 at 77% implied probability, driven by recent daily volumes consistently below this threshold amid spring break tailwinds—March 27 logged 2.74 million, March 26 hit 2.72 million, reflecting a 9% year-over-year dip despite record spring projections averaging 2.8 million daily through April. Staffing shortages from the ongoing government shutdown have fueled long lines and cancellations, tempering demand, while April 3 falls on a Thursday just before Easter Sunday (April 5), typically avoiding peak Friday-Sunday surges that have occasionally topped 3 million historically. The 18.5% on 3.0-3.2 million reflects potential pre-holiday uptick, but higher bins remain marginal absent exceptional momentum; watch March 30-31 weekend data for final trajectory shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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