Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for no change in the Bank of England's April policy decision, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee's announcement today maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75%. This aligns with pre-meeting expectations amid March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict, which the MPC noted monetary policy cannot directly offset. Governor Bailey emphasized assessing volatility's persistence before adjustments, with an 8-1 vote underscoring caution despite upside inflation risks. Realistic challenges to this positioning are negligible post-resolution, though extraordinary data revisions or geopolitical de-escalation could theoretically prompt review; next MPC meeting is June 18.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en avril ?
Décision de la Banque d'Angleterre en avril ?
Pas de changement 100.0%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation <1%
$609,334 Vol.
$609,334 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
Non
Baisse de 25 points de base
Non
Pas de changement
Oui
Augmentation
Non
Pas de changement 100.0%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
Augmentation <1%
$609,334 Vol.
$609,334 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
Non
Baisse de 25 points de base
Non
Pas de changement
Oui
Augmentation
Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for no change in the Bank of England's April policy decision, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee's announcement today maintaining the Bank Rate at 3.75%. This aligns with pre-meeting expectations amid March 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy prices from the Iran conflict, which the MPC noted monetary policy cannot directly offset. Governor Bailey emphasized assessing volatility's persistence before adjustments, with an 8-1 vote underscoring caution despite upside inflation risks. Realistic challenges to this positioning are negligible post-resolution, though extraordinary data revisions or geopolitical de-escalation could theoretically prompt review; next MPC meeting is June 18.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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