Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England base rate at the April decision, driven by persistent services inflation at 5.9% in the latest April CPI data (released May 22), which eased headline inflation to 2.3% yoy but left core measures at 3.6% well above the 2% target. Tight labor market conditions—with unemployment steady at 4.3% and average wage growth at 5.7% ex-bonuses—have reinforced MPC caution following the March hold at 5.25%. Upside inflation risks explain 26.4% odds for a 25 basis point increase, while cuts below 2% reflect insufficient disinflation progress. Traders eye upcoming May 9 MPC meeting and wage data for further shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en avril ?
Décision de la Banque d'Angleterre en avril ?
Pas de changement 68%
Augmentation 26.6%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.7%
Baisse de 25 points de base 1.1%
$180,606 Vol.
$180,606 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
2%
Baisse de 25 points de base
1%
Pas de changement
68%
Augmentation
27%
Pas de changement 68%
Augmentation 26.6%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base 1.7%
Baisse de 25 points de base 1.1%
$180,606 Vol.
$180,606 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
2%
Baisse de 25 points de base
1%
Pas de changement
68%
Augmentation
27%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 69.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England base rate at the April decision, driven by persistent services inflation at 5.9% in the latest April CPI data (released May 22), which eased headline inflation to 2.3% yoy but left core measures at 3.6% well above the 2% target. Tight labor market conditions—with unemployment steady at 4.3% and average wage growth at 5.7% ex-bonuses—have reinforced MPC caution following the March hold at 5.25%. Upside inflation risks explain 26.4% odds for a 25 basis point increase, while cuts below 2% reflect insufficient disinflation progress. Traders eye upcoming May 9 MPC meeting and wage data for further shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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