Market icon
Économie·Indique

Performances du Q1 S&P 500

Market icon
Économie·Indique

Performances du Q1 S&P 500

<0 % 97.4%

0-2 % <1%

2-3 % <1%

3-4 % <1%

Polymarket

$299,504 Vol.

<0 % 97.4%

0-2 % <1%

2-3 % <1%

3-4 % <1%

Polymarket

$299,504 Vol.

<0 %

$37,576 Vol.

97%

0-2 %

$11,663 Vol.

1%

2-3 %

$16,147 Vol.

1%

3-4 %

$39,990 Vol.

1%

4-5 %

$51,669 Vol.

1%

5-6 %

$44,453 Vol.

<1%

6-8 %

$56,504 Vol.

<1%

8-10 %

$19,100 Vol.

<1%

10 % +

$22,402 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 total return, driven by a steep 5% index selloff over the past two weeks amid escalating trade tariff fears following policy announcements and hotter-than-expected December CPI data pushing core inflation to 3.2%. Rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.6% have pressured valuations, while weakening consumer confidence and jobless claims revisions signal labor market softening, reinforcing recession risks. This positions the S&P 500 for its first quarterly decline since Q3 2022. Realistic challenges include January FOMC minutes revealing dovish pivots or sub-3% CPI in the February 12 release, potentially sparking a relief rally, though quarter-end proximity caps upside.

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Volume
$299,504
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 total return, driven by a steep 5% index selloff over the past two weeks amid escalating trade tariff fears following policy announcements and hotter-than-expected December CPI data pushing core inflation to 3.2%. Rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.6% have pressured valuations, while weakening consumer confidence and jobless claims revisions signal labor market softening, reinforcing recession risks. This positions the S&P 500 for its first quarterly decline since Q3 2022. Realistic challenges include January FOMC minutes revealing dovish pivots or sub-3% CPI in the February 12 release, potentially sparking a relief rally, though quarter-end proximity caps upside.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 total return, driven by a steep 5% index selloff over the past two weeks amid escalating trade tariff fears following policy announcements and hotter-than-expected December CPI data pushing core inflation to 3.2%. Rising 10-year Treasury yields near 4.6% have pressured valuations, while weakening consumer confidence and jobless claims revisions signal labor market softening, reinforcing recession risks. This positions the S&P 500 for its first quarterly decline since Q3 2022. Realistic challenges include January FOMC minutes revealing dovish pivots or sub-3% CPI in the February 12 release, potentially sparking a relief rally, though quarter-end proximity caps upside.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Performances du Q1 S&P 500 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « <0 % » à 97%, suivi de « 0-2 % » à 1%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 97¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Performances du Q1 S&P 500 » a généré $299.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 14, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Performances du Q1 S&P 500 », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Performances du Q1 S&P 500 » est « <0 % » à 97%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 0-2 % » à 1%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Performances du Q1 S&P 500 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.