Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10 announcement, reflecting the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25%—its third pause this year amid moderate GDP growth projected at 1.2% for 2026. March CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8%, driven by oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions, yet core inflation remains near the 2% target, supporting a cautious stance as the economy adjusts to U.S. tariffs and weak productivity. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI data due May 19 or renewed energy shocks pushing inflation higher, potentially prompting a rate hike, though labor market softening reduces cut odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 95.6%
Increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$25,194 Vol.
$25,194 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
No change 95.6%
Increase 3.3%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$25,194 Vol.
$25,194 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
3%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its June 10 announcement, reflecting the central bank's April 29 decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25%—its third pause this year amid moderate GDP growth projected at 1.2% for 2026. March CPI accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8%, driven by oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions, yet core inflation remains near the 2% target, supporting a cautious stance as the economy adjusts to U.S. tariffs and weak productivity. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI data due May 19 or renewed energy shocks pushing inflation higher, potentially prompting a rate hike, though labor market softening reduces cut odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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