Trader consensus favors "Nothing" at 59.5% implied probability for the March market, reflecting the absence of all triggering events by March 31, including the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% during its March 18 meeting, the SAVE Act's failure on Senate cloture, no invocation of the Insurrection Act or presidential declaration of an election interference national emergency by President Trump, and Iran's regime remaining intact despite U.S. airstrikes. The sole pending condition—both James Talarico advancing as the Democratic nominee and incumbent John Cornyn as the Republican nominee for Texas's U.S. Senate race—appears unlikely, with a May 5 University of Texas poll showing challenger Ken Paxton leading Cornyn 48%-45% ahead of the GOP primary runoff on May 26.