Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair overseeing a federal funds rate above 2.5%, with 77.5% implied probability, driven by President Trump's formal nomination sent to the Senate on March 4—despite recent stalls from Sen. Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell and criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren labeling Warsh a potential "sock puppet." Elevated inflation near 3%, fueled by Middle East tensions and oil prices above $110, prompted the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.75%, reducing near-term cut expectations and aligning with Warsh's history of advocating measured policy amid economic turbulence. Confirmation remains key ahead of Powell's May 15 term end, with Rick Rieder's earlier candidacy now faded.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTaux prédit de la Fed sous chaque président de la Fed
Taux prédit de la Fed sous chaque président de la Fed
Kevin Warsh & Taux > 2,5 % 72%
Kevin Warsh & Taux ≤ 2,5 % 12%
Autre 5.0%
Rick Rieder & Taux ≤ 2,5 % 2.2%
$14,234 Vol.
$14,234 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kevin Warsh & Taux > 2,5 %
77%
Kevin Warsh & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
12%
Autre
5%
Rick Rieder & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
9%
Kevin Hassett & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
1%
Rick Rieder & Taux > 2,5 %
1%
Christopher Waller & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
<1%
Kevin Hassett & Taux > 2,5 %
<1%
Christopher Waller & Taux > 2,5 %
<1%
Kevin Warsh & Taux > 2,5 % 72%
Kevin Warsh & Taux ≤ 2,5 % 12%
Autre 5.0%
Rick Rieder & Taux ≤ 2,5 % 2.2%
$14,234 Vol.
$14,234 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kevin Warsh & Taux > 2,5 %
$6,589 Vol.
77%
Kevin Warsh & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
$0 Vol.
12%
Autre
$0 Vol.
5%
Rick Rieder & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
$0 Vol.
9%
Kevin Hassett & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
$0 Vol.
1%
Rick Rieder & Taux > 2,5 %
$0 Vol.
1%
Christopher Waller & Taux ≤ 2,5 %
$0 Vol.
<1%
Kevin Hassett & Taux > 2,5 %
$0 Vol.
<1%
Christopher Waller & Taux > 2,5 %
$7,645 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair overseeing a federal funds rate above 2.5%, with 77.5% implied probability, driven by President Trump's formal nomination sent to the Senate on March 4—despite recent stalls from Sen. Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell and criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren labeling Warsh a potential "sock puppet." Elevated inflation near 3%, fueled by Middle East tensions and oil prices above $110, prompted the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.75%, reducing near-term cut expectations and aligning with Warsh's history of advocating measured policy amid economic turbulence. Confirmation remains key ahead of Powell's May 15 term end, with Rick Rieder's earlier candidacy now faded.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Marché ouvert : Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Volume
$14,234Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair overseeing a federal funds rate above 2.5%, with 77.5% implied probability, driven by President Trump's formal nomination sent to the Senate on March 4—despite recent stalls from Sen. Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell and criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren labeling Warsh a potential "sock puppet." Elevated inflation near 3%, fueled by Middle East tensions and oil prices above $110, prompted the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.75%, reducing near-term cut expectations and aligning with Warsh's history of advocating measured policy amid economic turbulence. Confirmation remains key ahead of Powell's May 15 term end, with Rick Rieder's earlier candidacy now faded.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Volume
$14,234Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair overseeing a federal funds rate above 2.5%, with 77.5% implied probability, driven by President Trump's formal nomination sent to the Senate on March 4—despite recent stalls from Sen. Thom Tillis over a DOJ probe into Jerome Powell and criticism from Sen. Elizabeth Warren labeling Warsh a potential "sock puppet." Elevated inflation near 3%, fueled by Middle East tensions and oil prices above $110, prompted the Fed's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.75%, reducing near-term cut expectations and aligning with Warsh's history of advocating measured policy amid economic turbulence. Confirmation remains key ahead of Powell's May 15 term end, with Rick Rieder's earlier candidacy now faded.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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