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icon for Vague bleue en 2026 ?
Politique·Congrès

Vague bleue en 2026 ?

icon for Vague bleue en 2026 ?
Politique·Congrès

Vague bleue en 2026 ?

Oui

70% chance
Polymarket

$49,370 Vol.

Oui

70% chance
Polymarket

$49,370 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfDemocratic prospects for substantial gains in the 2026 midterms have strengthened amid President Trump's declining approval ratings and consistent Democratic leads of five to seven points on the generic congressional ballot. Midterm elections historically impose a penalty on the president's party, a pattern reinforced here by an enthusiasm gap exceeding 10 points favoring Democrats and multiple GOP retirements in competitive districts. Recent primary results in states including California, New Jersey, and Iowa, alongside ongoing redistricting adjustments, have further highlighted structural vulnerabilities for Republicans. These factors align with trader consensus pricing a blue wave outcome above 70 percent, though Senate control remains more contested given the narrower map and historical base rates for presidential-party losses. The November 3, 2026, elections will determine final resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volume
$49,370
Date de fin
30 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfDemocratic prospects for substantial gains in the 2026 midterms have strengthened amid President Trump's declining approval ratings and consistent Democratic leads of five to seven points on the generic congressional ballot. Midterm elections historically impose a penalty on the president's party, a pattern reinforced here by an enthusiasm gap exceeding 10 points favoring Democrats and multiple GOP retirements in competitive districts. Recent primary results in states including California, New Jersey, and Iowa, alongside ongoing redistricting adjustments, have further highlighted structural vulnerabilities for Republicans. These factors align with trader consensus pricing a blue wave outcome above 70 percent, though Senate control remains more contested given the narrower map and historical base rates for presidential-party losses. The November 3, 2026, elections will determine final resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volume
$49,370
Date de fin
30 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

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Questions fréquentes

« Vague bleue en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Vague bleue en 2026 ? » à 70%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 70¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vague bleue en 2026 ? » a généré $49.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 14, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vague bleue en 2026 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vague bleue en 2026 ? » est « Vague bleue en 2026 ? » à 70%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vague bleue en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.