Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability in Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais's commanding position after securing a Trump endorsement in February 2026 and holding over $500,000 in cash on hand as of late 2025. DesJarlais, who won his last three general elections by 66-70% margins, faces minor Republican primary challengers like Thomas Davis and Robert Arnold ahead of the August 6 closed primary, while Democrats field low-funded Victoria Broderick. This safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report underscores limited paths to upset, though a damaging GOP primary loss, scandal revival, or national midterm wave could narrow odds before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
TN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
92%
Parti démocrate
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
92%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability in Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais's commanding position after securing a Trump endorsement in February 2026 and holding over $500,000 in cash on hand as of late 2025. DesJarlais, who won his last three general elections by 66-70% margins, faces minor Republican primary challengers like Thomas Davis and Robert Arnold ahead of the August 6 closed primary, while Democrats field low-funded Victoria Broderick. This safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report underscores limited paths to upset, though a damaging GOP primary loss, scandal revival, or national midterm wave could narrow odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability in Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais's commanding position after securing a Trump endorsement in February 2026 and holding over $500,000 in cash on hand as of late 2025. DesJarlais, who won his last three general elections by 66-70% margins, faces minor Republican primary challengers like Thomas Davis and Robert Arnold ahead of the August 6 closed primary, while Democrats field low-funded Victoria Broderick. This safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report underscores limited paths to upset, though a damaging GOP primary loss, scandal revival, or national midterm wave could narrow odds before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 91.5% implied probability in Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House race, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais's commanding position after securing a Trump endorsement in February 2026 and holding over $500,000 in cash on hand as of late 2025. DesJarlais, who won his last three general elections by 66-70% margins, faces minor Republican primary challengers like Thomas Davis and Robert Arnold ahead of the August 6 closed primary, while Democrats field low-funded Victoria Broderick. This safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report underscores limited paths to upset, though a damaging GOP primary loss, scandal revival, or national midterm wave could narrow odds before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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