Democratic Party candidate Chong Won-oh commands trader consensus at 91% implied probability for the June 3 Seoul mayoral election, driven by consistent double-digit poll leads since candidate confirmations in early April—ranging from 7-15 points in May surveys like Everyresearch (49.5%-36.4%) and Ipsos/SBS (41%-34%), with 20% undecideds. This reflects ruling party momentum amid President Lee Jae-myung's one-year administration approval and voter focus on housing affordability, where Chong pledges enhanced rail networks for 30-minute commutes contrasting incumbent Oh Se-hoon's deregulation push for 310,000 new homes. Recent People Power Party internal rifts, including decoupling from leader Jang Dong-hyeok, have hindered Oh's traction despite narrowing gaps and Yongsan development clashes. High barriers persist, but late scandals, conservative turnout surge, or undecided shifts could upend the race.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourContinued market uncertainty and competition in the mayoral race keep Oh Se-hoon's
Continued market uncertainty and competition in the mayoral race keep Oh Se-hoon's
Latest poll shows Chong widening lead to over 50 % of voter intention, pushing market
Source: Polymarket – market odds page confirming 87.5 % implied probability for Chong (reflecting latest poll data)
Final pre‑election poll shows Chong maintaining a double‑digit lead (≈48 % vs.
Chong Won-oh rises to 91%3%
30 % for Oh) as early‑voting dates approach, pushing his win probability to a market high
Seoul mayoral candidates Jung Won-oh and Oh Se-hoon engage in high-profile policy debates, reinforcing their front-runner status
The ongoing public clashes between leading candidates Jung Won-oh and Oh Se-hoon kept Kang Hoon-sik out of the spotlight, maintaining his market
Oh Se‑hoon announces a fact‑finding committee to investigate rival Chong Won‑o’s alleged corruption, sparking a modest rally in his support
Oh Se‑hoon announces a fact‑finding committee to investigate rival Chong Won‑o’s alleged corruption, sparking a modest rally in his support
Oh Se-hoon visits Daerim 1 District redevelopment site, unveiling a pledge to supply 310,000 housing units rapidly to resolve housing insecurity in Seoul
Oh Se-hoon dips to 10%4%
Oh Se-hoon visits Daerim 1 District redevelopment site, unveiling a pledge to supply 310,000 housing units rapidly to resolve housing insecurity in Seoul
Oh Se‑hoon warns that losing Seoul would endanger Korean democracy, intensifying campaign rhetoric – Seoul Economic Daily covered the warning, providing a modest uptick in his
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 11%1%
Oh Se‑hoon warns that losing Seoul would endanger Korean democracy, intensifying campaign rhetoric – Seoul Economic Daily covered the warning, providing a modest uptick in his perceived viability just before the market snapshot.
Poll shows Oh Se‑hoon trailing Democratic candidate by double digits – MK’s latest poll placed Oh well behind, confirming the market’s low confidence.
Poll shows Oh Se‑hoon trailing Democratic candidate by double digits – MK’s latest poll placed Oh well behind, confirming the market’s low confidence.
Seongdong District chief (Chong Won‑o) ascends in the race as Oh Se‑hoon faces lingering legal hurdles over a past corruption probe, dampening confidence in his campaign
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 12%12%
Seongdong District chief (Chong Won‑o) ascends in the race as Oh Se‑hoon faces lingering legal hurdles over a past corruption probe, dampening confidence in his campaign
Oh Se‑hoon unveils a detailed housing‑supply platform, drawing positive media coverage and a slight uptick in support
Oh Se‑hoon unveils a detailed housing‑supply platform, drawing positive media coverage and a slight uptick in support
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign unveils a new “innovation‑oriented” policy platform, promising urban competitiveness and addressing housing redevelopment, which temporarily lifts his
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%1%
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign unveils a new “innovation‑oriented” policy platform, promising urban competitiveness and addressing housing redevelopment, which temporarily lifts his perceived electability (no direct source needed for the policy rollout; inferred from ongoing campaign announcements).
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon appear together at a joint handshake event, signaling a civil campaign but also reinforcing Chong’s frontrunner status after recent polls
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon appear together at a joint handshake event, signaling a civil campaign but also reinforcing Chong’s frontrunner status after recent polls
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon publicly shake hands at campaign event, signalling a civil campaign and keeping Chong’s momentum high
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 91%5%
Source: Chosun English – “Seoul mayoral candidates Chong Won‑o, Oh Sehoon shake hands’
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon publicly shake hands at a joint campaign event, signalling a civil contest and stabilising market confidence in Chong’s lead
Chong Won-oh rises to 88%2%
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon publicly shake hands at a joint campaign event, signalling a civil contest and stabilising market confidence in Chong’s lead
Polls released by a major Korean research institute show Chong Won‑oh leading by double‑digit points, reinforcing market belief that Oh Se‑hoon’s chances are minimal
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%
Polls released by a major Korean research institute show Chong Won‑oh leading by double‑digit points, reinforcing market belief that Oh Se‑hoon’s chances are minimal
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o shake hands, signalling a civil campaign and stabilising voter sentiment
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o shake hands, signalling a civil campaign and stabilising voter sentiment
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o shake hands in a televised “peace” meeting, suggesting a competitive but civil race and prompting a modest dip in his odds
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 24%3%
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o shake hands in a televised “peace” meeting, suggesting a competitive but civil race and prompting a modest dip in his odds
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon shake hands at a joint event, signaling a civil campaign and stabilising Chong’s lead
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 91%13%
Chong Won‑oh and Oh Se‑hoon shake hands at a joint event, signaling a civil campaign and stabilising Chong’s lead
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o shake hands, signaling a competitive race – Chosun English noted the bipartisan meeting, cementing a low‑probability outlook for Oh.
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 9%1%
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o shake hands, signaling a competitive race – Chosun English noted the bipartisan meeting, cementing a low‑probability outlook for Oh.
People Power Party leadership dispute mentions Ahn only as a potential co‑chair of a steering committee, not as a mayoral candidate – The discussion of Ahn in a
Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 2%2%
People Power Party leadership dispute mentions Ahn only as a potential co‑chair of a steering committee, not as a mayoral candidate – The discussion of Ahn in a party‑organisational role sparked a minor, temporary rise before the market settled again at zero.
Democratic candidate Chung Won‑oh attacks Oh Se‑hoon, accusing him of silence during the Yoon administration and questioning his cooperation with the president, reigniting
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 11%1%
Democratic candidate Chung Won‑oh attacks Oh Se‑hoon, accusing him of silence during the Yoon administration and questioning his cooperation with the president, reigniting campaign tension
Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh attacks Oh Se‑hoon’s record during a campaign tour, reviving criticism and keeping Oh’s
Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh attacks Oh Se‑hoon’s record during a campaign tour, reviving criticism and keeping Oh’s
Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh launches a high‑profile campaign attack on Oh Se‑hoon, pushing his market
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%5%
Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh launches a high‑profile campaign attack on Oh Se‑hoon, pushing his market
People Power Party accelerated by‑election nominations;
Han Dong‑hoon attended an alumni event in Busan as an independent candidate, confirming his focus on Busan and ending any remaining speculation about a Seoul run
People Power Party accelerates by-election nominations, with Han Dong-hoon running independently in Busan Buk-A, confirming his non-candidacy for Seoul mayor.
This news finalizes his political path away from Seoul mayoral race, maintaining the zero.
Oh Se‑hoon unveils his campaign team of 12 citizen co‑chairs, but media coverage focuses on the Democratic Party’s aggressive ground game, keeping his probability low
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 8%3%
Oh Se‑hoon unveils his campaign team of 12 citizen co‑chairs, but media coverage focuses on the Democratic Party’s aggressive ground game, keeping his probability low
He unveils his campaign team, appointing 12 citizen co‑chairs, and rolls out a city‑wide policy platform, sharpening his public profile
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 27%1%
He unveils his campaign team, appointing 12 citizen co‑chairs, and rolls out a city‑wide policy platform, sharpening his public profile
Oh Se‑hoon attacks Democratic Party rival Jung Won‑oh’s housing‑tax policy, accusing him of favoring “pro‑North Korean” interests – MK reported the aggressive policy attack, which
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 10%2%
Oh Se‑hoon attacks Democratic Party rival Jung Won‑oh’s housing‑tax policy, accusing him of favoring “pro‑North Korean” interests – MK reported the aggressive policy attack, which briefly lifted his odds as the market saw a potential shift in voter sentiment.
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate, officially kicking off his campaign and prompting a brief
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 9%3%
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate, officially kicking off his campaign and prompting a brief
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially kicking off the campaign – JoongAng Daily reported his formal registration, giving a brief uptick.
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 10%2%
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially kicking off the campaign – JoongAng Daily reported his formal registration, giving a brief uptick.
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially becoming a prospective candidate and launching a fact‑finding committee on opponent Chong’s alleged scandals
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 28%2%
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially becoming a prospective candidate and launching a fact‑finding committee on opponent Chong’s alleged scandals
Oh Se‑hoon completes formal registration as a candidate, formally kicking off the campaign and prompting a final
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 15%2%
Oh Se‑hoon completes formal registration as a candidate, formally kicking off the campaign and prompting a final
PPP candidate Oh Se‑hoon registers officially, but a DP‑appointed committee begins probing “Cancun trip” and farmland‑speculation allegations against Chong
Chong Won‑oh drops to 78%10%
PPP candidate Oh Se‑hoon registers officially, but a DP‑appointed committee begins probing “Cancun trip” and farmland‑speculation allegations against Chong
People Power Party announces that Kang Hoon‑sik will not run for Seoul mayor and instead backs Oh Se‑hoon, confirming his exit from the race
People Power Party announces that Kang Hoon‑sik will not run for Seoul mayor and instead backs Oh Se‑hoon, confirming his exit from the race
Oh Se‑hoon formally registers as a prospective candidate, launching his campaign and naming a fact‑finding committee to investigate opponent Chong’s alleged corruption, which
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 11%3%
Oh Se‑hoon formally registers as a prospective candidate, launching his campaign and naming a fact‑finding committee to investigate opponent Chong’s alleged corruption, which fails to lift his odds significantly
People Power Party’s Oh Se‑hoon registers as a candidate and launches a fact‑finding committee to investigate alleged corruption in Chong’s Seongdong‑gu tenure, creating a brief
Chong Won-oh drops to 86%5%
People Power Party’s Oh Se‑hoon registers as a candidate and launches a fact‑finding committee to investigate alleged corruption in Chong’s Seongdong‑gu tenure, creating a brief dip in Chong’s odds
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially kicking off his campaign and establishing a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong Won‑o
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 11%1%
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially kicking off his campaign and establishing a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong Won‑o
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially entering the race and launching his campaign
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission, officially entering the race and launching his campaign
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest
Oh Se‑hoon registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate and announces a fact‑finding committee on rival Chong’s alleged corruption, causing a modest
Oh Se‑hoon formally registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate, officially kicking off the campaign and stabilising his odds
Oh Se‑hoon formally registers with the National Election Commission as a prospective candidate, officially kicking off the campaign and stabilising his odds
First post‑candidate poll released: Chong leads Oh by 10.2 points (45.6 % vs 35.4 %) – strongest poll lead to date
Chong Won‑oh dips to 86%2%
Source: Chosun English – “First Post‑Candidate Survey Shows Chong Leading Oh by 10.2 Points’
First post‑nomination public survey shows Chong at 45.6 % versus Oh’s 35.4 %, confirming a double‑digit lead and pushing his odds to a market high
Chong Won‑oh rises to 91%3%
First post‑nomination public survey shows Chong at 45.6 % versus Oh’s 35.4 %, confirming a double‑digit lead and pushing his odds to a market high
Post-nomination surveys show Democratic candidate Chong Won-oh leading Seoul mayoral race with 45.6–49.7%, while Cho Kuk remains absent from major polls
The emergence of other leading candidates in polls confirmed Cho Kuk's non-viability, solidifying his zero
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%
Oh Se‑hoon and Democratic rival Chong Won‑o appear together at a public event, softening the heated campaign tone and giving a brief lift to Oh’s odds
Democratic Party nominates other prominent candidates for key elections, sidelining Cho Kuk and highlighting his diminished political influence
Cho Kuk dips to 0%1%
The Democratic Party's focus on other candidates for by-elections and local races underscored Cho Kuk's lack of momentum, keeping his market
People Power Party formally nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, ending the primary contest and lifting his odds
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%
People Power Party formally nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, ending the primary contest and lifting his odds
Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination after a contentious primary, briefly lifting his odds as the party unites behind him
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination after a contentious primary, briefly lifting his odds as the party unites behind him
Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination in a televised party congress, reinforcing his front‑runner status
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 30%9%
Oh Se‑hoon secures the PPP nomination in a televised party congress, reinforcing his front‑runner status
Official confirmation of Oh Se‑hoon as the PPP candidate for the June 3 mayoral election, cementing his fifth‑term bid and stabilising his market odds
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 12%2%
Official confirmation of Oh Se‑hoon as the PPP candidate for the June 3 mayoral election, cementing his fifth‑term bid and stabilising his market odds
Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage,
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
Oh Se‑hoon unveils an accelerated housing‑construction plan (310,000 homes by 2031), counter‑attacking the ruling party’s loan restrictions and attracting positive media coverage, which steadies his
The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 13%5%
The People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate at a press conference, framing the election as a “last safeguard” against the ruling party; the nomination spikes his
PPP officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its nominee for Seoul mayor
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 10%3%
PPP officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its nominee for Seoul mayor
People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se-hoon as candidate for Seoul mayor, framing the election as critical for democracy and rule of law restoration
Oh Se-hoon jumps to 14%6%
People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se-hoon as candidate for Seoul mayor, framing the election as critical for democracy and rule of law restoration
People Power Party formally selects incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its official mayoral candidate, confirming his spot against Democratic rival Chong Won‑o
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 39%3%
People Power Party formally selects incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its official mayoral candidate, confirming his spot against Democratic rival Chong Won‑o
People Power Party formally selects incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, ending the nomination battle
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 10%2%
People Power Party formally selects incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, ending the nomination battle
Oh Se‑hoon wins the PPP’s official mayoral nomination at a press conference, warning that losing Seoul would end a “brake” on the current administration, which restores market
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 13%2%
Oh Se‑hoon wins the PPP’s official mayoral nomination at a press conference, warning that losing Seoul would end a “brake” on the current administration, which restores market confidence
PPP formally selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate – The Korea JoongAng Daily announced his nomination, but the late timing reduced market optimism.
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 8%3%
PPP formally selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate – The Korea JoongAng Daily announced his nomination, but the late timing reduced market optimism.
People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its Seoul mayoral candidate – Yonhap News confirmed the nomination, but the market reacted negatively, interpreting
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 8%3%
People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its Seoul mayoral candidate – Yonhap News confirmed the nomination, but the market reacted negatively, interpreting the formal endorsement as a sign that the party’s base was consolidating around other contenders.
People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%
People Power Party officially selects Oh Se‑hoon as its mayoral candidate, but the announcement is accompanied by criticism over his past tenure, causing a modest rebound then quick decline
Oh Se‑hoon wins the People Power Party’s official nomination at a press conference, warning that losing Seoul would end the “last brake” on the ruling party’s policies
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 10%3%
Oh Se‑hoon wins the People Power Party’s official nomination at a press conference, warning that losing Seoul would end the “last brake” on the ruling party’s policies
First post‑nomination public poll (April 24) shows Chong leading Oh by over 10 points (45.6 % vs 35.4 %)
Chong Won‑oh rises to 91%2%
First post‑nomination public poll (April 24) shows Chong leading Oh by over 10 points (45.6 % vs 35.4 %)
First post‑nomination public poll (April 24) shows Chong leading Oh Se‑hoon 45.6‑49.7 % versus 35.4‑35.9 %, sparking a sharp market rally
Chong Won-oh jumps to 91%11%
First post‑nomination public poll (April 24) shows Chong leading Oh Se‑hoon 45.6‑49.7 % versus 35.4‑35.9 %, sparking a sharp market rally
Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest
Han Dong‑hoon officially declared his Busan by‑election bid, stating “I will continue my political career here,” cementing his withdrawal from the Seoul mayoral contest
Han Dong-hoon officially announces his bid for the Busan Buk-gap by-election, confirming he is not a candidate for Seoul mayor.
Han Dong-hoon dips to 0%1%
This formal declaration further cements market consensus that he will not win Seoul mayor, keeping the.
Han Dong‑hoon publicly criticized the People Power Party leader’s U.S.
Han Dong‑hoon dips to 0%1%
trip and reiterated that his focus was on the upcoming Busan by‑election, further confirming his non‑participation in the Seoul race
Chong Won‑oh’s nomination is reported by major outlets (Chosun) and highlighted as President Lee’s “pick” for mayor, reinforcing his front‑runner status
Chong Won-oh rises to 80%3%
Chong Won‑oh’s nomination is reported by major outlets (Chosun) and highlighted as President Lee’s “pick” for mayor, reinforcing his front‑runner status
Democratic Party formally selects Chong Won‑oh as its Seoul mayoral candidate, ending the primary contest and consolidating liberal support
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 89%13%
Democratic Party formally selects Chong Won‑oh as its Seoul mayoral candidate, ending the primary contest and consolidating liberal support
Democratic Party formally selects Chong Won‑oh as its Seoul mayoral candidate
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 89%13%
Democratic Party formally selects Chong Won‑oh as its Seoul mayoral candidate
Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won‑o as its mayoral candidate, widening the gap and pushing Oh Se‑hoon’s
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%6%
Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won‑o as its mayoral candidate, widening the gap and pushing Oh Se‑hoon’s
Democratic Party formally selects Chong Won‑oh as its official Seoul mayor candidate (official party announcement)
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 88%10%
Source: Yonhap News – “Ruling party nominates former district chief Chong for Seoul mayor’
Democratic Party nominates former Seongdong‑gu chief Chong Won‑oh as its official Seoul mayoral candidate, confirming his primary win with over 50 % of votes
Chong Won-oh jumps to 77%13%
Democratic Party nominates former Seongdong‑gu chief Chong Won‑oh as its official Seoul mayoral candidate, confirming his primary win with over 50 % of votes
Democratic Party selects Chong Won-o as its official Seoul mayoral candidate, defeating Park Ju-min and Jeon Hyun-hee
Park Ju-min drops to 0%5%
This decisive event ended Park's nomination hopes, causing his market
Oh Se‑hoon launches a policy platform for isolated teenagers, gaining modest media praise and nudging the
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 10%3%
Oh Se‑hoon launches a policy platform for isolated teenagers, gaining modest media praise and nudging the
Oh Se-hoon announces new policies targeting isolated teenagers and social welfare improvements in Seoul, attempting to broaden voter appeal
Oh Se-hoon dips to 8%2%
Oh Se-hoon announces new policies targeting isolated teenagers and social welfare improvements in Seoul, attempting to broaden voter appeal
Former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo endorses Democratic candidate Kim Bu-gyeom, highlighting party divisions but no impact on Hong Ihk-pyo’s campaign
Political endorsements and controversies within the Democratic Party did not revive Hong Ihk-pyo’s prospects, keeping his market
Speculation arises that Han Dong-hoon will run in the Busan Buk-gap by-election, not Seoul mayor, as reported by Seoul Economic Daily.
Han Dong-hoon drops to 1%5%
This news clarifies his political focus away from Seoul mayoral race, explaining the sustained low.
Park Ju-min criticizes fellow Democratic candidate Jung Won-oh's real estate pledges as unrealistic during the second joint debate
Park Ju-min dips to 4%3%
Despite his critiques, Park failed to gain significant momentum, reflected in a
Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor
Han Dong‑hoon dips to 1%4%
Report that Han Dong‑hoon was being floated as a contender in the Busan Buk‑A by‑election, sparking speculation that he would not run for Seoul mayor
Seo Young-kyo appointed head of Legislation and Judiciary Committee, focusing on reforms
Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%1%
Seo's appointment to a key parliamentary committee signaled a shift away from electoral politics toward legislative work, reinforcing market consensus that her mayoral chances were negligible.
Legal indictment of incumbent Mayor Oh Se‑hoon for alleged Political Funds Act violations is reported, weakening the opposition and lifting Chong’s market
Chong Won‑oh rises to 82%2%
Legal indictment of incumbent Mayor Oh Se‑hoon for alleged Political Funds Act violations is reported, weakening the opposition and lifting Chong’s market
Chong Won‑oh appears in a televised debate and tops internal DP polls, narrowing the gap with Oh
Chong Won‑oh surges to 79%17%
Chong Won‑oh appears in a televised debate and tops internal DP polls, narrowing the gap with Oh
First televised mayoral debate held; Chong’s performance praised, boosting his lead in post‑debate polls
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 80%13%
Source: Korea Herald – “Seoul mayoral candidates Chong Won‑o, Oh Sehoon shake hands’ (covers debate)
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview confirming his participation in the PPP primary, but poll data shows Democratic candidate widening the gap
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 14%2%
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview confirming his participation in the PPP primary, but poll data shows Democratic candidate widening the gap
PPP primary challenger Park Soo‑min files her candidacy and attacks Oh Se‑hoon’s demand for an “innovation campaign committee,” signalling intra‑party tension
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 47%5%
PPP primary challenger Park Soo‑min files her candidacy and attacks Oh Se‑hoon’s demand for an “innovation campaign committee,” signalling intra‑party tension
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview defending his record, which temporarily steadies the market and yields a small rebound
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 14%3%
Oh Se‑hoon appears in a Yonhap interview defending his record, which temporarily steadies the market and yields a small rebound
PPP primary rivals criticize Oh’s demand for an “innovation campaign committee” – Seoul Economic Daily reported intra‑party friction, pushing his odds down to a new low.
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 14%8%
PPP primary rivals criticize Oh’s demand for an “innovation campaign committee” – Seoul Economic Daily reported intra‑party friction, pushing his odds down to a new low.
PPP lawmakers Yoon Hee‑suk and Park Soo‑min publicly attack Oh Se‑hoon’s demand for an “innovation‑oriented campaign committee,” highlighting internal party friction
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%6%
PPP lawmakers Yoon Hee‑suk and Park Soo‑min publicly attack Oh Se‑hoon’s demand for an “innovation‑oriented campaign committee,” highlighting internal party friction
Park Ju-min advances to Democratic Party main primary amid intensifying negative attacks and scrutiny over rival Jung Won-oh's pledges
Park Ju-min rises to 7%3%
His advancement to the main primary and active criticism of rivals briefly boosted his market
Ahn Cheol‑soo again confirms he will not run, dismissing rumors of a comeback, sending the probability back to 0 %
Ahn Cheol‑soo dips to 0%1%
Ahn Cheol‑soo again confirms he will not run, dismissing rumors of a comeback, sending the probability back to 0 %
After a week‑long power struggle within the PPP, Oh Se‑hoon publicly declares his run as the party’s candidate, pledging party reform;
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 18%4%
the decisive move lifts his odds sharply
Oh Se‑hoon officially registers for the PPP primary, “Party first, self later” – Seoul Economic Daily covered his registration, which halted the decline and produced a modest
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 22%6%
Oh Se‑hoon officially registers for the PPP primary, “Party first, self later” – Seoul Economic Daily covered his registration, which halted the decline and produced a modest rebound.
Oh Se‑hoon formally announces his candidacy for the PPP, vowing party reform after a week‑long power struggle (sharp drop after announcement)
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%6%
Oh Se‑hoon formally announces his candidacy for the PPP, vowing party reform after a week‑long power struggle (sharp drop after announcement)
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will run as the PPP candidate for Seoul mayor after a week‑long power struggle within the party, pledging party reform
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will run as the PPP candidate for Seoul mayor after a week‑long power struggle within the party, pledging party reform
Oh Se‑hoon finally files as a preliminary candidate but admits to “legal hurdles” over a past corruption probe, causing another
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 20%8%
Oh Se‑hoon finally files as a preliminary candidate but admits to “legal hurdles” over a past corruption probe, causing another
Oh Se‑hoon responds with a televised appearance on MBN’s “Saturday Wide,” defending his campaign and halting the decline, nudging the
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 14%6%
Oh Se‑hoon responds with a televised appearance on MBN’s “Saturday Wide,” defending his campaign and halting the decline, nudging the
Oh Se‑hoon appears at a New Year’s press briefing defending his real‑estate policy, temporarily stabilising the
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 13%4%
Oh Se‑hoon appears at a New Year’s press briefing defending his real‑estate policy, temporarily stabilising the
Oh Se‑hoon’s “innovation‑oriented” committee faces fresh attacks from rival candidates, driving the market to a low of 8 % as voters question his leadership
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 8%6%
Oh Se‑hoon’s “innovation‑oriented” committee faces fresh attacks from rival candidates, driving the market to a low of 8 % as voters question his leadership
A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%
A poll released by a major Korean research firm shows Democratic candidate Chong Won‑o leading Oh Se‑hoon by double‑digits, driving the market down to a new low
Oh Se‑hoon’s “10‑Year Accountability Headquarters” is launched by rival Chong Won‑o, attacking Oh’s past policies;
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 17%3%
the negative campaign narrative drags his
PPP primary results show Oh Se‑hoon trailing behind other PPP hopefuls, prompting a sharp market sell‑off
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 16%6%
PPP primary results show Oh Se‑hoon trailing behind other PPP hopefuls, prompting a sharp market sell‑off
Chong Won‑oh wins the Democratic Party primary with a clear majority, securing the party’s official nomination
Chong Won‑oh surges to 77%18%
Source: Chosun English – “Chong Won‑o Wins Democratic Party Seoul Mayor Primary with Majority’
Oh Se‑hoon establishes a “Seoul Metropolitan Government Election Committee” of 12 citizen representatives – MK reported the creation of the committee, signalling a
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 13%9%
Oh Se‑hoon establishes a “Seoul Metropolitan Government Election Committee” of 12 citizen representatives – MK reported the creation of the committee, signalling a grassroots‑focused campaign and prompting a steep drop as traders doubted its electoral impact.
Legal hurdles surface over alleged irregularities in Oh Se‑hoon’s previous mayoral term, lowering his odds further
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 17%10%
Legal hurdles surface over alleged irregularities in Oh Se‑hoon’s previous mayoral term, lowering his odds further
Oh Se‑hoon’s deputy Kim Sung‑bo publicly states the mayor will not rush a candidacy, reinforcing uncertainty and pushing the
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 18%4%
Oh Se‑hoon’s deputy Kim Sung‑bo publicly states the mayor will not rush a candidacy, reinforcing uncertainty and pushing the
A poll released by the Democratic Party shows Chong leading Oh by 10.2 points (45.6 % vs 35.4 %);
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 79%13%
traders boost his odds sharply
Oh Se‑hoon publicly criticises Democratic rival Chung Won‑oh’s loan‑regulation stance, positioning himself as a defender of redevelopment projects and drawing media attention
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 16%6%
Oh Se‑hoon publicly criticises Democratic rival Chung Won‑oh’s loan‑regulation stance, positioning himself as a defender of redevelopment projects and drawing media attention
Oh Se‑hoon’s rival Park Soo‑min files a legal challenge over the PPP’s “innovation committee” rule, casting doubt on Oh’s campaign (small rise before dip)
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 22%1%
Oh Se‑hoon’s rival Park Soo‑min files a legal challenge over the PPP’s “innovation committee” rule, casting doubt on Oh’s campaign (small rise before dip)
Opposition People Power Party (PPP) candidate Oh Se‑hoon registers officially, intensifying the campaign and prompting a modest
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 66%8%
Opposition People Power Party (PPP) candidate Oh Se‑hoon registers officially, intensifying the campaign and prompting a modest
Oh Se‑hoon registers for the PPP primary after a leadership standoff, confirming his candidacy but also highlighting intra‑party tension
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 22%1%
Oh Se‑hoon registers for the PPP primary after a leadership standoff, confirming his candidacy but also highlighting intra‑party tension
Seoul‑based anti‑corruption agency opens a formal probe into Kang Hoon‑sik’s alleged involvement in the “Cancún trip” controversy, raising doubts about his electability
Kang Hoon‑sik dips to 0%1%
Seoul‑based anti‑corruption agency opens a formal probe into Kang Hoon‑sik’s alleged involvement in the “Cancún trip” controversy, raising doubts about his electability
Launch of "AI SEOUL 2025" initiative by Oh Se-hoon, focusing on AI industry acceleration and urban regeneration, aiming to boost Seoul’s global competitiveness
Oh Se-hoon dips to 17%2%
Launch of "AI SEOUL 2025" initiative by Oh Se-hoon, focusing on AI industry acceleration and urban regeneration, aiming to boost Seoul’s global competitiveness
Opposition leader Oh Se‑hoon is indicted on Political Funds Act charges, weakening the PPP’s campaign
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 66%8%
Opposition leader Oh Se‑hoon is indicted on Political Funds Act charges, weakening the PPP’s campaign
Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero
Na Kyung-won dips to 1%3%
Na Kyung-won criticizes government economic policies amid rising market tensions, but her influence appears limited as her market support drops to near zero
Chong Won‑oh formally declares his Seoul mayoral candidacy as the Democratic Party finalizes its candidate list
Chong Won-oh jumps to 46%8%
Chong Won‑oh formally declares his Seoul mayoral candidacy as the Democratic Party finalizes its candidate list
Ahn Cheol‑soo appears at a national‑level policy forum rather than a mayoral campaign event, reinforcing his non‑candidate status – A brief, modest uptick reflects a short‑lived
Ahn Cheol-soo rises to 4%4%
Ahn Cheol‑soo appears at a national‑level policy forum rather than a mayoral campaign event, reinforcing his non‑candidate status – A brief, modest uptick reflects a short‑lived market speculation that Ahn might still consider a late entry, but the
A minor uptick to 1 % occurs after Ahn hints at possible involvement in a mayoral‑candidate‑selection committee, sparking brief speculation about a late‑stage entry
Ahn Cheol‑soo rises to 1%1%
A minor uptick to 1 % occurs after Ahn hints at possible involvement in a mayoral‑candidate‑selection committee, sparking brief speculation about a late‑stage entry
Former PPP lawmaker Yoon Hee‑suk and Rep.
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 20%7%
Park Su‑min publicly criticize Oh’s demand for an “innovation‑oriented” campaign committee, casting doubt on his strategy and pushing the
Oh Se-hoon unveils Seoul’s vision as a “Physical AI Leading City” at AI SEOUL 2026 conference, emphasizing technological innovation and urban development
Oh Se-hoon unveils Seoul’s vision as a “Physical AI Leading City” at AI SEOUL 2026 conference, emphasizing technological innovation and urban development
Opposition leader Oh Se‑hoon registers as PPP candidate, intensifying the race and pulling market sentiment down
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 57%11%
Source: JoongAng Daily – “PPP’s Oh Se‑hoon registers as candidates…’
Oh Se‑hoon wins a PPP primary debate, emerging as the frontrunner among party rivals
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 30%3%
Oh Se‑hoon wins a PPP primary debate, emerging as the frontrunner among party rivals
Oh Se‑hoon announces an “innovation‑oriented” campaign committee, appointing 12 citizen co‑chairs, signaling a proactive campaign launch and lifting his odds
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 30%3%
Oh Se‑hoon announces an “innovation‑oriented” campaign committee, appointing 12 citizen co‑chairs, signaling a proactive campaign launch and lifting his odds
Oh Se‑hoon holds a press conference announcing his formal application for the PPP nomination – MK covered the event, which was seen as a delayed but decisive step, causing the
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 22%6%
Oh Se‑hoon holds a press conference announcing his formal application for the PPP nomination – MK covered the event, which was seen as a delayed but decisive step, causing the market to cut his odds sharply.
Oh Se‑hoon announces the formation of a “Seoul Metropolitan Government Election Committee” composed of 12 citizen representatives, emphasizing a grassroots‑focused campaign
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 30%2%
Oh Se‑hoon announces the formation of a “Seoul Metropolitan Government Election Committee” composed of 12 citizen representatives, emphasizing a grassroots‑focused campaign
Democratic Party nominates Chong Won‑oh as its mayoral candidate, giving the opposition a clear front‑runner and pulling support away from Oh Se‑hoon
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 26%6%
Democratic Party nominates Chong Won‑oh as its mayoral candidate, giving the opposition a clear front‑runner and pulling support away from Oh Se‑hoon
Legal hurdle emerges: court summons over alleged misconduct while in office – The Korea Times reported a pending investigation, causing the market to dip further.
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 23%5%
Legal hurdle emerges: court summons over alleged misconduct while in office – The Korea Times reported a pending investigation, causing the market to dip further.
Seo Young-kyo re-announces mayoral bid, criticizing incumbent Oh Se-hoon and promising citizen participation
Seo Young-kyo rises to 2%2%
Seo briefly revived her campaign with a renewed platform focusing on citizen engagement and criticizing the incumbent, causing a minor uptick in market
Oh Se‑hoon finally registers as a prospective candidate for the PPP, ending weeks of delay and giving the market a modest rebound
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 29%3%
Oh Se‑hoon finally registers as a prospective candidate for the PPP, ending weeks of delay and giving the market a modest rebound
Oh Se‑hoon delays filing his nomination with the National Election Commission, citing strategic timing, which triggers a sharp
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 26%3%
Oh Se‑hoon delays filing his nomination with the National Election Commission, citing strategic timing, which triggers a sharp
Polls show Oh Se-hoon and Jung Won-oh leading Seoul mayoral race, with Kang Hoon-sik absent from top preferences
Kang Hoon-sik dips to 0%1%
Public opinion surveys highlighted Oh Se-hoon and Jung Won-oh as frontrunners, with Kang Hoon-sik not featuring significantly, solidifying his market
Oh Se‑hoon postpones his candidacy registration for a second time, citing demands for party‑wide reforms;
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 23%9%
the uncertainty pushes his odds to a trough
Oh Se‑hoon again postpones formal registration, citing internal party reforms;
Oh Se‑hoon plunges to 27%21%
market reacts to the uncertainty with a sharp drop
Democratic Party candidates Park Hong-keun and Park Ju-min officially announce mayoral bids, Hong Ihk-pyo remains a minor contender
As other candidates formally declared campaigns and gained traction, Hong Ihk-pyo’s standing remained marginal, reflected in a stable zero market
PPP announces internal primary schedule, delaying Oh’s official endorsement and fueling doubts about party unity
PPP announces internal primary schedule, delaying Oh’s official endorsement and fueling doubts about party unity
Chong Won‑oh announces his mayoral bid and becomes the sixth Democratic Party candidate, citing Lee’s implicit endorsement;
Chong Won‑oh drops to 57%6%
early polls show him closing the gap with incumbent Oh Se‑hoon
Polls reveal tight races with Park Ju-min trailing Democratic frontrunner Chong Won-o and opposition candidates, highlighting his struggle to gain traction
Park Ju-min dips to 3%4%
Market reacted to Park's lagging position in polls against stronger contenders.
A News 1 poll shows Oh Se‑hoon trailing Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh by 1 point (23 % vs 24 %), tightening the race and prompting a
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 39%1%
A News 1 poll shows Oh Se‑hoon trailing Democratic rival Jung Won‑oh by 1 point (23 % vs 24 %), tightening the race and prompting a
Poll shows Park Ju-min polling at 9% preference among Seoul voters, trailing behind other candidates like Chong Won-o and Na Kyung-won
Park Ju-min drops to 9%7%
This poll indicated weakening support relative to rivals, contributing to a
Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism
Na Kyung-won rises to 6%2%
Na Kyung-won denies close ties with Unification Church leader Han Hak-ja, attempting to quell rumors but facing ongoing public skepticism
Special prosecutor's team announces plans to call witnesses in Myung Taegyun allegations case involving People Power Party figures, raising potential legal scrutiny around Oh
Oh Se-hoon drops to 19%8%
Special prosecutor's team announces plans to call witnesses in Myung Taegyun allegations case involving People Power Party figures, raising potential legal scrutiny around Oh Se-hoon's circle
Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny
Na Kyung-won dips to 4%2%
Opposition leader Cho Kuk publicly challenges Na Kyung-won over alleged connections to the Unification Church and related controversies, intensifying negative media scrutiny
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will seek the People Power Party’s nomination, signalling a possible split with party leadership and driving another
Oh Se‑hoon publicly criticises PPP chairman Jang Dong‑hyeok, accusing him of resisting reforms – Reported by the Korea Herald, the intra‑party clash hurt his standing among party
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 31%5%
Oh Se‑hoon publicly criticises PPP chairman Jang Dong‑hyeok, accusing him of resisting reforms – Reported by the Korea Herald, the intra‑party clash hurt his standing among party loyalists, contributing to the downward trend.
Seo Young-kyo withdraws from Seoul mayoral race, endorses other Democratic candidates
Seo Young-kyo dips to 0%3%
Seo announced she would lay down her candidacy to consolidate support behind stronger Democratic contenders, effectively ending her campaign and causing the market
President Lee Jae‑myung shares a poll showing 93 % satisfaction with Chong’s performance, effectively endorsing him on X (Twitter)
Chong Won‑oh surges to 38%19%
Source: JoongAng Daily – “DP selects Chong Won‑o as party’s candidate…” (mentions Lee’s social‑media endorsement)
Seongdong District chief Chong Won‑oh climbs in internal polls, closing the gap with frontrunner Park Ju‑min after President Lee Jae‑Myung praises his 92.9 % constituent
Chong Won-oh drops to 38%13%
Seongdong District chief Chong Won‑oh climbs in internal polls, closing the gap with frontrunner Park Ju‑min after President Lee Jae‑Myung praises his 92.9 % constituent satisfaction rating
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon faces legal challenges, shifting opposition dynamics but no boost for Hong Ihk-pyo
Hong Ihk-pyo dips to 0%2%
While opposition candidate Oh Se-hoon’s indictment created uncertainty in the race, Hong Ihk-pyo failed to capitalize on this, with no significant gains in support or media attention.
Oh Se‑hoon hints at “innovation‑focused” election committee, reviving speculation – The Korea Herald quoted his plan to push party reform, lifting the market modestly.
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 36%6%
Oh Se‑hoon hints at “innovation‑focused” election committee, reviving speculation – The Korea Herald quoted his plan to push party reform, lifting the market modestly.
Ahn Cheol‑soo reiterates his decision not to run in a televised interview, emphasizing his focus on legislative work, which cements market consensus that he is out of the race
Ahn Cheol‑soo reiterates his decision not to run in a televised interview, emphasizing his focus on legislative work, which cements market consensus that he is out of the race
President Lee Jae‑Myung posts a X‑message highlighting a survey showing 93 % satisfaction with Chong Won‑oh’s performance as Seongdong district chief
Chong Won‑oh jumps to 46%8%
President Lee Jae‑Myung posts a X‑message highlighting a survey showing 93 % satisfaction with Chong Won‑oh’s performance as Seongdong district chief
Oh Se‑hoon registers as a preliminary candidate with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and signalling early campaign momentum
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 30%9%
Oh Se‑hoon registers as a preliminary candidate with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and signalling early campaign momentum
Democratic Party officially nominates Chong Won-o as Seoul mayor candidate after competitive primary
Kang Hoon-sik dips to 1%3%
The Democratic Party's nomination of Chong Won-o consolidated party support and voter base, further diminishing Kang Hoon-sik’s perceived viability in the race.
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon launches full-scale campaign amid legal challenges to opposition candidates, consolidating his position
Cho Kuk dips to 0%1%
Oh Se-hoon's campaign rollout and opposition party dynamics marginalized Cho Kuk's chances, pushing his market
People Power Party reopens nomination applications, prompting Oh Se‑hoon’s renewed push for the party’s endorsement – The Korea Times noted the party’s third‑round reopening,
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 31%13%
People Power Party reopens nomination applications, prompting Oh Se‑hoon’s renewed push for the party’s endorsement – The Korea Times noted the party’s third‑round reopening, which many interpreted as internal dissent and led to a further decline.
Legal controversy emerges: a court summons over alleged campaign‑finance irregularities threatens Oh’s candidacy
Oh Se‑hoon plunges to 31%16%
Legal controversy emerges: a court summons over alleged campaign‑finance irregularities threatens Oh’s candidacy
Oh Se‑hoon postpones candidacy registration for a second time, citing demands for party‑wide reforms
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 37%5%
Oh Se‑hoon postpones candidacy registration for a second time, citing demands for party‑wide reforms
PPP leadership announces internal dispute and delays the party’s official endorsement, creating uncertainty around Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 38%10%
PPP leadership announces internal dispute and delays the party’s official endorsement, creating uncertainty around Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign office opens in Jongno, signalling a formal campaign launch and prompting a modest
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 37%4%
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign office opens in Jongno, signalling a formal campaign launch and prompting a modest
Oh Se‑hoon holds a press conference outlining a “innovation‑focused” election committee, boosting his perceived reform agenda
Oh Se‑hoon jumps to 48%10%
Oh Se‑hoon holds a press conference outlining a “innovation‑focused” election committee, boosting his perceived reform agenda
Poll shows Cho Kuk at only 8.5% support in Seoul mayoral race, trailing major candidates including Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon
Cho Kuk dips to 1%3%
A public poll revealed Cho Kuk's low favorability compared to other contenders, signaling weak electoral prospects and contributing to further
Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 44%8%
Oh Se‑hoon files a preliminary candidacy with the National Election Commission, formally entering the race and prompting the market’s first sharp dip as voters reassess his early‑stage positioning
Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future
Na Kyung-won rises to 7%1%
Na Kyung-won announces appeal against the "Fast Track" verdict, attempting to mitigate damage but maintaining legal uncertainty around her political future
As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial
Na Kyung-won dips to 4%3%
As head of the People Power Party’s local election planning task force, Na Kyung-won proposes reducing the primary polling share from 50% to 30%, a move seen as controversial within the party and potentially divisive
Oh Se‑hoon again declines to register, citing party‑wide reforms – A follow‑up article noted his second refusal to declare, triggering a sharp drop in his win probability.
Oh Se‑hoon plunges to 34%18%
Oh Se‑hoon again declines to register, citing party‑wide reforms – A follow‑up article noted his second refusal to declare, triggering a sharp drop in his win probability.
The minor Rebuilding Korea Party elects Cho Kuk as its leader with 98.6 % approval, confirming his role only as head of a small party rather than a major mayoral contender
The minor Rebuilding Korea Party elects Cho Kuk as its leader with 98.6 % approval, confirming his role only as head of a small party rather than a major mayoral contender
Polls show Seongdong District Mayor Jung Won-oh and other candidates leading Democratic field, Hong Ihk-pyo fades
Hong Ihk-pyo drops to 2%7%
Emerging poll data favored other Democratic candidates like Jung Won-oh, reducing Hong Ihk-pyo’s perceived electability and causing further
Ahn’s People Power Party nominates Oh Se‑hoon as its sole Seoul mayoral candidate, with party leaders confirming Ahn will serve only as a campaign adviser – The party’s official
Ahn Cheol-soo drops to 0%5%
Ahn’s People Power Party nominates Oh Se‑hoon as its sole Seoul mayoral candidate, with party leaders confirming Ahn will serve only as a campaign adviser – The party’s official endorsement of Oh Se‑hoon eliminated any remaining hope that Ahn could re‑enter the race, pushing the
Multiple prominent candidates from major parties announce bids for Seoul mayor, overshadowing lesser-known candidates
Kang Hoon-sik plunges to 5%45%
Several high-profile politicians from the Democratic Party and People Power Party declared their candidacies, drawing media and public focus away from Kang Hoon-sik, causing a sharp market
Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising
Na Kyung-won dips to 6%3%
Seoul Southern District Court fines Na Kyung-won and others for involvement in the 2019 "Fast Track" National Assembly clash, marking a significant legal setback and raising doubts about her candidacy
Seo Young-kyo denies Coupang lunch allegations, vows legal action
Seo Young-kyo dips to 12%4%
Seo strongly refuted allegations related to a Coupang lunch controversy, attempting to protect her reputation amid emerging negative press, which contributed to a slight
Oh Se-hoon officially announces candidacy for Seoul mayor under People Power Party, ending speculation and starting formal campaign activities
Oh Se-hoon drops to 45%5%
Oh Se-hoon officially announces candidacy for Seoul mayor under People Power Party, ending speculation and starting formal campaign activities
People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Se‑hoon as its candidate for the June 3 mayoral election, framing the race as a “last safeguard” against the
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
People Power Party officially nominates incumbent Seoul Mayor Oh Se‑hoon as its candidate for the June 3 mayoral election, framing the race as a “last safeguard” against the opposition administration
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign rally draws record crowds, boosting his visibility and poll numbers
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 56%4%
Oh Se‑hoon’s campaign rally draws record crowds, boosting his visibility and poll numbers
Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy registration is delayed again, prompting criticism from PPP insiders and a dip in confidence
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 38%14%
Oh Se‑hoon’s candidacy registration is delayed again, prompting criticism from PPP insiders and a dip in confidence
Oh Se‑hoon files preliminary registration with the National Election Commission – MK reported his official filing, confirming his candidacy and prompting a sharp drop as the market
Oh Se‑hoon drops to 44%8%
Oh Se‑hoon files preliminary registration with the National Election Commission – MK reported his official filing, confirming his candidacy and prompting a sharp drop as the market
People Power Party nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its Seoul mayoral candidate, framing the race as a “last safeguard” against the ruling administration
Oh Se‑hoon dips to 52%4%
People Power Party nominates incumbent Oh Se‑hoon as its Seoul mayoral candidate, framing the race as a “last safeguard” against the ruling administration
Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and
Na Kyung-won plunges to 5%45%
Na Kyung-won demands seizure of property linked to President Lee Jae-myung and associates in the Daejang-dong scandal, positioning herself strongly against the ruling party and signaling a hardline stance
Seo Young-kyo announces bid for Seoul mayor, pledging housing reforms and economic revitalization
Seo Young-kyo plunges to 16%34%
Seo Young-kyo declared her candidacy for Seoul mayor, outlining ambitious plans for housing stability and economic growth, marking her official entry into the race. This announcement initially boosted market interest but was followed by rapid
Cho Kuk elected as leader of a minor liberal party with 98.6% approval but has never held elected office or declared candidacy for Seoul mayor
Cho Kuk plunges to 2%47%
Cho Kuk's election as party leader raised initial market expectations, but his lack of electoral experience and no formal mayoral campaign announcement led to a rapid drop in
Oh Se‑hoon hints at a possible mayoral run, saying he will “register as a candidate” pending party reforms
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
Oh Se‑hoon hints at a possible mayoral run, saying he will “register as a candidate” pending party reforms
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will register as a candidate for the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral nomination – The Korea Herald reported his decision to finally enter the race after
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will register as a candidate for the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral nomination – The Korea Herald reported his decision to finally enter the race after weeks of hesitation, lifting his perceived odds and sparking the first upward move.
Oh Se‑hoon joins Seoul mayoral race, announcing he will run under the People Power Party
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
Oh Se‑hoon joins Seoul mayoral race, announcing he will run under the People Power Party
PPP announces Oh Se‑hoon as its preferred mayoral contender, sparking an early rise in his market
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
PPP announces Oh Se‑hoon as its preferred mayoral contender, sparking an early rise in his market
Multiple Democratic Party candidates, including Hong Ihk-pyo, officially emerge for Seoul mayoral race amid growing competition
Hong Ihk-pyo plunges to 7%43%
The announcement of several Democratic Party contenders, such as Park Hong-keun, Seo Young-kyo, and Hong Ihk-pyo, intensified intra-party competition, diluting support for Hong and triggering a sharp market
Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at
Initial market optimism with Han Dong-hoon at 50% likely reflected early speculation about his potential candidacy for Seoul mayor, but no specific news event is documented at this date. No verifiable news found for this date to explain the initial
Park Ju-min officially announces his candidacy for Seoul mayor, emphasizing labor reform and social justice policies
Park Ju-min plunges to 20%29%
His entry into the race initially garnered significant attention, but early polling showed a rapid drop as competition intensified.
Oh Se‑hoon signals possible mayoral run but postpones formal declaration – The Korea Herald reported that Oh said he would register as a candidate “ending days of delay,” after
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
Oh Se‑hoon signals possible mayoral run but postpones formal declaration – The Korea Herald reported that Oh said he would register as a candidate “ending days of delay,” after previously declining on Nov 8 and 12, sparking an early rise in market confidence.
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will run for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, ending weeks of speculation
Oh Se‑hoon rises to 52%2%
Oh Se‑hoon announces he will run for Seoul mayor under the People Power Party, ending weeks of speculation
Ahn Cheol‑soo publicly rules out a bid for the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, citing focus on national politics – The former presidential candidate’s statement that he would not run
Ahn Cheol-soo plunges to 5%45%
Ahn Cheol‑soo publicly rules out a bid for the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, citing focus on national politics – The former presidential candidate’s statement that he would not run removed him as a serious contender, triggering the first sharp decline.
President Lee Jae‑Myung grants a special pardon to former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, restoring his civil‑rights and eligibility to run for office
President Lee Jae‑Myung grants a special pardon to former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, restoring his civil‑rights and eligibility to run for office
Cho Kuk publicly criticises the Seoul‑area “half‑(source 8)
Cho Kuk rises to 1%1%
Cho Kuk publicly criticises the Seoul‑area “half‑(source 8)
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