Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, with implied probabilities at 61.5% versus 35.5% for Bloc Québécois' Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, while other contenders trail far behind. This reflects recent Abacus Data polling showing Auguste leading 42-37% amid high advance voting turnout exceeding 20%, bolstering Liberal momentum in the swing riding vacated by MP Paul Guilbert's resignation. Key drivers include Quebec voters' preference for Liberal incumbency on affordability issues, national minority government dynamics favoring the party in power, and Sinclair-Desgagné's narrower appeal despite strong sovereigntist turnout; the November 25 vote remains fluid with potential for late shifts from undecideds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 36%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$17,277 Vol.
$17,277 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
36%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 36%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%
$17,277 Vol.
$17,277 Vol.

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
36%

Maxime Beaudoin
<1%

Maria Cantore
<1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%

Benjamin Rankin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, with implied probabilities at 61.5% versus 35.5% for Bloc Québécois' Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, while other contenders trail far behind. This reflects recent Abacus Data polling showing Auguste leading 42-37% amid high advance voting turnout exceeding 20%, bolstering Liberal momentum in the swing riding vacated by MP Paul Guilbert's resignation. Key drivers include Quebec voters' preference for Liberal incumbency on affordability issues, national minority government dynamics favoring the party in power, and Sinclair-Desgagné's narrower appeal despite strong sovereigntist turnout; the November 25 vote remains fluid with potential for late shifts from undecideds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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