Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (mid-March 2026) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, ahead of GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points among decided voters, driving trader consensus toward a modest PB victory margin of 5-15% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. The race remains tight due to poll volatility—including one survey showing a narrower 6.9-point gap—voter fatigue from Bulgaria's eighth vote in five years, low expected turnout (51-59%), and a fragmented field with PP-DB, DPS, and Revival splitting opposition votes under proportional representation. Separation could arise from televised debates, targeted mobilization in urban centers, or late scandals affecting turnout before the National Assembly forms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 32%
PB <5% 11%
PB 15-20% 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
8%
PB 15-20%
10%
PB 10-15%
41%
PB 5-10%
32%
PB <5%
11%
Victoire du GERB-SDS
10%
Other
10%
PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 32%
PB <5% 11%
PB 15-20% 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$20 Vol.
8%
PB 15-20%
$0 Vol.
10%
PB 10-15%
$158 Vol.
41%
PB 5-10%
$29 Vol.
32%
PB <5%
$0 Vol.
11%
Victoire du GERB-SDS
$0 Vol.
10%
Other
$0 Vol.
10%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (mid-March 2026) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, ahead of GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points among decided voters, driving trader consensus toward a modest PB victory margin of 5-15% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. The race remains tight due to poll volatility—including one survey showing a narrower 6.9-point gap—voter fatigue from Bulgaria's eighth vote in five years, low expected turnout (51-59%), and a fragmented field with PP-DB, DPS, and Revival splitting opposition votes under proportional representation. Separation could arise from televised debates, targeted mobilization in urban centers, or late scandals affecting turnout before the National Assembly forms.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volume
$208Date de fin
Apr 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (mid-March 2026) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, ahead of GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points among decided voters, driving trader consensus toward a modest PB victory margin of 5-15% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. The race remains tight due to poll volatility—including one survey showing a narrower 6.9-point gap—voter fatigue from Bulgaria's eighth vote in five years, low expected turnout (51-59%), and a fragmented field with PP-DB, DPS, and Revival splitting opposition votes under proportional representation. Separation could arise from televised debates, targeted mobilization in urban centers, or late scandals affecting turnout before the National Assembly forms.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volume
$208Date de fin
Apr 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links (mid-March 2026) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former President Rumen Radev, ahead of GERB-SDS by 7-11 percentage points among decided voters, driving trader consensus toward a modest PB victory margin of 5-15% in the April 19 snap parliamentary election. The race remains tight due to poll volatility—including one survey showing a narrower 6.9-point gap—voter fatigue from Bulgaria's eighth vote in five years, low expected turnout (51-59%), and a fragmented field with PP-DB, DPS, and Revival splitting opposition votes under proportional representation. Separation could arise from televised debates, targeted mobilization in urban centers, or late scandals affecting turnout before the National Assembly forms.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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