Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left anti-corruption coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 95.4% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's snap parliamentary election on April 19, driven by consistent opinion polls from late March showing it at 29-31% support—9-12 points ahead of GERB-SDS. This surge stems from Radev's January resignation to form PB amid protests over the prior government's collapse in December 2025, capitalizing on voter frustration with seven prior snap votes since 2021 and demands for stability under proportional representation. While PB's lead reflects wisdom-of-crowds pricing, shifts could arise from scandals, undecided voter swings (9-16% in polls), or turnout dynamics favoring incumbents before the May seat allocation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPB 95.5%
GERB–SDS 1.9%
PP–DB 1.8%
ITN <1%
$79,785 Vol.
$79,785 Vol.

PB
96%

GERB–SDS
2%

PP–DB
2%

ITN
<1%

Velichie
<1%

APS
<1%

BSP-Gauche unie
<1%

MECH
<1%

Vazrazhdane
<1%

DPS
<1%
PB 95.5%
GERB–SDS 1.9%
PP–DB 1.8%
ITN <1%
$79,785 Vol.
$79,785 Vol.

PB
96%

GERB–SDS
2%

PP–DB
2%

ITN
<1%

Velichie
<1%

APS
<1%

BSP-Gauche unie
<1%

MECH
<1%

Vazrazhdane
<1%

DPS
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new centre-left anti-corruption coalition led by former President Rumen Radev, commands trader consensus at 95.4% implied probability of securing the most seats in Bulgaria's snap parliamentary election on April 19, driven by consistent opinion polls from late March showing it at 29-31% support—9-12 points ahead of GERB-SDS. This surge stems from Radev's January resignation to form PB amid protests over the prior government's collapse in December 2025, capitalizing on voter frustration with seven prior snap votes since 2021 and demands for stability under proportional representation. While PB's lead reflects wisdom-of-crowds pricing, shifts could arise from scandals, undecided voter swings (9-16% in polls), or turnout dynamics favoring incumbents before the May seat allocation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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